338 Potrero Ave #308 · San Francisco, CA 94103

$414,731

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 823 sqft · Condo public records · 102 Days on market

Built 2016 $777/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

2-bedroom Below Market Rate (BMR) housing opportunity available at 100% Area Median Income (AMI). Maximum income for 2 people = $124,700; 3 = $140,250; 4 = $155,850, etc. Must be 1st-time homebuyer & income eligible. Unit available thru the Mayor's Office of Housing and Community Development (MOHCD) & subject to resale controls, monitoring & other restrictions. Unit will be listed on DAHLIA, the SF Housing Portal (https://housing. sfgov. org) starting on the application date, 09/29/2025. Visit https://housing. sfgov.org for application & program info. Application, loan pre-approval, and homebuyer education verification due on 10/20/25 at 5:00 PM. OPEN HOUSE 10/03/25

Key facts

• $777 HOA
• Built 2016
• Listed 102 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $415k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $285 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $415k).
• Recommended offer: $377k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.5%/yr); 108 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,815/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($116k/yr) (locally 2666% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $116k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($377k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $377,405 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.94%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.96% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $138,749
• Equity at exit: $234,078

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.01×
• Total profit: $466,229
• Equity at exit: $403,208

Cash invested: $116,125 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94103

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Rents YoY: 15.5%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,815 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,175
• Tax from tax record: −$395 /mo · $4,736/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$777
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,011
• Net cashflow: $285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,455

Max offer price $414,731

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,683
• Closing costs: $12,442
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
451 Kansas St #375 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	661	$4,350	$6.58	18d	1	0.26mi
2823 18th St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	519	$4,718	$9.08	2d	4	0.27mi
291 15th St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$2,695	$4.90	24d	1	0.28mi
1 Henry Adams St San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	873	$6,759	$7.74	1d	3	0.39mi
1532 Harrison St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	617	$4,897	$7.94	2d	11	0.47mi
88 Arkansas St #105 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	604	$4,000	$6.62	43d	1	0.49mi
380 10th St San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	1122	$5,495	$4.90	44d	1	0.51mi
855 Brannan St San Francisco, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	958	$6,137	$6.41	1d	5	0.52mi
1247 Harrison St #21 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.5	1089	$4,950	$4.55	18d	1	0.55mi
799 S Van Ness Ave San Francisco, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	740	$4,500	$6.08	2d	2	0.57mi
1010 16th St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	963	$5,786	$6.01	2d	8	0.57mi
975 Bryant St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	697	$6,104	$8.76	1d	10	0.58mi
1222 Harrison St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0–2.5	853	$6,299	$7.38	2d	34	0.59mi
2830 22nd St Unit 2830 San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	1090	$5,200	$4.77	16d	1	0.64mi
2115-2117 22nd St Unit 2117 San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$4,600	$4.60	21d	1	0.64mi
1875 Mission St #210 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	825	$4,000	$4.85	43d	1	0.64mi
345 8th St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	946	$4,095	$4.33	43d	2	0.66mi
1600 15th St San Francisco, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	792	$5,614	$7.08	3d	5	0.68mi
2333 Mission St #2 San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	1010	$4,900	$4.85	7d	1	0.71mi
23 Boardman Pl Unit LTBP23F San Francisco, CA	3.0	1.0	1050	$4,700	$4.48	43d	1	0.73mi
2629 Folsom St Unit 106 San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0	718	$4,395	$6.12	18d	1	0.75mi
2629 Folsom St Unit 204 San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0	718	$4,095	$5.70	43d	1	0.75mi
2629 Folsom St Unit 105 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	546	$3,100	$5.68	18d	1	0.75mi
60 Rausch St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	767	$4,300	$5.61	5d	1	0.77mi
73 Sumner St San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$4,750	$4.32	43d	1	0.77mi
2246 23rd St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$3,506	$5.39	43d	1	0.77mi
99 Rausch St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	655	$4,250	$6.49	24d	1	0.78mi
1288 Howard St #1908 San Francisco, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	782	$6,710	$8.58	1d	2	0.78mi
360 Berry St San Francisco, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	842	$6,800	$8.08	1d	4	0.81mi
355 Berry St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	707	$4,968	$7.02	1d	4	0.81mi
673 Brannan St San Francisco, CA	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.0	1302	$4,659	$3.58	1d	2	0.82mi
2250 24th St #121 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	602	$3,623	$6.02	18d	1	0.83mi
30 Otis St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	874	$10,000	$11.44	2d	13	0.84mi
155 Harriet St #1 San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.5	920	$3,595	$3.91	43d	1	0.88mi
922 Valencia St San Francisco, CA	3.0	3.0	1100	$8,450	$7.68	43d	1	0.88mi
1395 22nd St San Francisco, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	808	$10,000	$12.37	1d	3	0.89mi
300 Berry St #907 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	732	$5,000	$6.83	7d	1	0.89mi
68 McCoppin St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	734	$3,825	$5.21	16d	2	0.89mi
1 Brady St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	889	$7,385	$8.30	1d	29	0.90mi
603 Natoma St Apt 406 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	556	$2,950	$5.31	43d	1	0.91mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $777 · $9,324/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-01-10
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-29
   listed $414,731 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,736 · $395/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,736 · $395/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥78°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,231
• − Property taxes: −$4,736
• − Insurance: −$2,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,623
• − Management: −$4,623
• − HOA: −$9,324
• − Depreciation: −$12,065
• Taxable loss: −$2,893
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$694
• After-tax cash flow: $4,110/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 34,964
• Household income: $116,438
• Rent vs Own: 80.3% rent · 19.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2666.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 32% Asian 31% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 11% Black 10% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 36% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 16% Chinese 9% Tagalog/Filipino 6%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.96%
• Current HPI: 175.4945
• Rent YoY: ▲ 15.50%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-10 Pending — San Francisco MLS
• 2025-09-29 Listed $414,731 San Francisco MLS

Property tax history

+18.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,736 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.