166 Dover Dr · Saw Creek, PA 18324

$149,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1978 0.28 ac lot $149/sqft · 34% below area Est $248k · 39% under $154/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Classic A-frame with a loft, set in a wooded Pocono community just two hours from New York City and Philadelphia. Warm, cozy interior with that classic cabin feel, plus loft space perfect for additional sleeping or a relaxed hangout area. Located in Saw Creek Estates featuring multiple outdoor pools, an indoor pool, indoor tennis courts, and a ski hill. A great option for a weekend escape, vacation home, or Pocono retreat.

Key facts

• A-frame
• Wooded community
• Indoor tennis courts

Tags

• A-FRAME
• WOODED COMMUNITY
• OUTDOOR POOLS
• INDOOR POOL
• INDOOR TENNIS COURTS
• SKI HILL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $396 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.3% in Saw Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,538 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, schools F.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 290 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $128k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.31%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,624
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -39.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
167 Dorchester Dr	0.23mi	2/1.0	1,080 (+7%)	1mo	$195,000	$181	77
244 Canterbury Rd	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (-1%)	1mo	$175,000	$175	74
225 Canterbury Rd	0.33mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,008 (0%)	14mo	$155,000	$154	66
172 Dover Drive Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,144 (+14%)	5mo	$160,000	$140	62
114 Salisbury Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+14%)	12mo	$212,500	$184	54
3126 Snowden Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,008 (0%)	9mo	$265,000	$263	53
216 Dorchester Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (+7%)	20mo	$259,896	$241	51
210 Dover Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,156 (+15%)	9mo	$235,000	$203	50
5936 Decker Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (+7%)	7mo	$218,000	$202	47
6359 Decker Rd	0.71mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,101 (+9%)	22mo	$185,000	$168	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.51% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $47,466
• Equity at exit: $71,713

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.07×
• Total profit: $128,989
• Equity at exit: $113,994

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18324

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,074 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,886/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$154
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $396

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,573

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
353 Saunders Dr Unit PA East Stroudsburg, PA	3.0	2.0	1287	$2,200	$1.71	20d	1	0.68mi
104 Condor Dr #1 Tamiment, PA	2.0	2.5	1308	$1,800	$1.38	24d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $154 · $1,848/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,900 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 547-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,900 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $149,900 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,900 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,900 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 42 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 41 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,900 Active 40 DOM
18. 2026-04-13
    listed $149,900 Active 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Classic A-frame with a loft, set in a wooded Pocono community just two hours from New York City and Philadelphia. Warm, cozy interior with that classic cabin feel, plus loft space perfect for additional sleeping or a relaxed hangout area. Located in Saw Creek Estates featuring multiple outdoor pools, an indoor pool, indoor tennis courts, and a ski hill. A great option for a weekend escape, vacation home, or Pocono retreat.

19. 2005-10-27
    soldstatus $128,125

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,886 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,886 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,891
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,886
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,991
• − Management: −$1,991
• − HOA: −$1,848
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $2,668
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$640
• After-tax cash flow: $4,107/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Stroudsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4208670
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $57,142
• Composite: 30.13/100
• National rank: #6332
• State rank: #413 of 539 in PA

Livability — Saw Creek

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1538
• US rank: #20241

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saw Creek, PA
• Population (ZIP): 9,591

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 21% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 3% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Estonian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.51%
• Current HPI: 243.6754
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+17.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $149,900 PMAR
• 2005-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $128,125 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,886 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.