The Brambling Plan · Willis, TX 77318

$230,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,993 sqft · SingleFamily · 118 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Brambling has a rear corner covered patio directly accessible from the light-filled family room. A large eat-in island kitchen overlooks the family room for easy entertaining. On the second floor, you can change a spacious loft to a fourth bedroom, which separates the private owner's suite from two secondary bedrooms. The owner's suite includes a massive walk-in closet and private bath and has easy access to the second-floor laundry room.

Key facts

• Private bath
• Spacious loft
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• REAR CORNER COVERED PATIO
• EAT-IN ISLAND KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS LOFT
• MASSIVE WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH
• SECOND-FLOOR LAUNDRY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $230,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $272,490.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $231k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-502 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (13.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: C C Hardy El (math 32% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,464 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 752 students, 83% FRL); Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 56% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1569 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 39d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,817 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.90%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,490
• List price: $230,990
• Delta: -15.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9758 Enclave Ridge Rd	0.16mi	3/2.5	2,061 (+3%)	5mo	$259,990	$126	83
9738 Enclave Ridge Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,826 (-8%)	6mo	$289,260	$158	73
9749 Enclave Ridge Rd	0.13mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,173 (+9%)	6mo	$282,555	$130	69
9765 Enclave Ridge Rd	0.16mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,173 (+9%)	7mo	$290,160	$134	66
9750 Enclave Ridge Rd	0.15mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,253 (+13%)	3mo	$318,751	$141	60
12501 Falls Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,705 (-14%)	8mo	$269,900	$158	59
12375 Sunset Canyon Way	0.27mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,253 (+13%)	4mo	$288,075	$128	53
12739 Woodcreek Dr	0.41mi	3/3.0	2,284 (+15%)	4mo	$340,000	$149	52
12307 Sunset Canyon Way	0.24mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,253 (+13%)	9mo	$334,910	$149	50
718 Campbell Crossing Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0	2,026 (+2%)	13mo	$429,900	$212	50
12168 Hairston Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,792 (-10%)	17mo	$155,000	$86	44
9529 Maple Ridge Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,740 (-13%)	21mo	$159,990	$92	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-81,229
• Equity at exit: $40,629

10-year hold

• IRR: -63.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.72×
• Total profit: $-131,599
• Equity at exit: $23,560

Cash invested: $76,297 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 71 active · 35 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.9 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $316,990 ($158/sqft)
• Median days on market: 109 d
• This list price: 6% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -13.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1569
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,748 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,429
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$341 /mo · $4,087/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $-502

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,384

Max offer price $199,841

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-314	-5% $-408	+0% $-502	+5% $-596	+10% $-690
Rent	-10% $-640	-5% $-571	+0% $-502	+5% $-433	+10% $-364
Rate	-1.0pp $-365	-0.5pp $-433	base $-502	+0.5pp $-573	+1.0pp $-645

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,122
• Closing costs: $8,175
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9700 FM 1097 Rd W Willis, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1115	$1,501	$1.35	0d	10	0.21mi
9706 Farm to Market 1097 Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,125	$0.91	20d	1	0.27mi
505 Hines Ave Apt B Willis, TX	3.0	2.5	1665	$1,500	$0.90	39d	1	0.43mi
501 Hines Ave Unit B Willis, TX	2.0	2.5	1283	$1,450	$1.13	39d	1	0.44mi
272 Warbler Song Dr Willis, TX	4.0	2.5	2200	$1,277	$0.58	43d	1	0.81mi
314 Harbor Bend Ct Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,800	$1.37	139d	1	0.89mi
322 Fanpalm Ct Unit Na Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$2,500	$1.25	20d	1	1.45mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $222,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Heat pump
• Home design: Single-family plan homeAddress: Willis, TX (Canyon Falls area)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1993

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating
• Interior features: Plan: The Brambling (new construction plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $230,990 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $230,990 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $230,990 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $230,990 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $230,990 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $230,990 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $230,990 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $230,990 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $230,990 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $230,990 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $230,990 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $230,990 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $230,990 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $230,990 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $230,990 Active 99 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $230,990 Active 98 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $230,990 Active 97 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $227,990 Active 92 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $227,990 Active 91 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $227,990 Active 90 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    pricedays on market $227,990 Active 88 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $225,990 Active 87 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $225,990 Active 86 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $225,990 Active 85 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $225,990 Active 84 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $225,990 Active 83 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $225,990 Active 82 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $225,990 Active 81 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $225,990 Active 80 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $225,990 Active 79 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $225,990 Active 78 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $225,990 Active 77 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $225,990 Active 76 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $225,990 Active 75 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $225,990 Active 74 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $225,990 Active 73 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $225,990 Active 72 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $225,990 Active 71 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $225,990 Active 69 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $225,990 Active 68 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $225,990 Active 67 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $225,990 Active 66 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $225,990 Active 63 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $225,990 Active 61 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $225,990 Active 60 DOM
46. 2026-07-26
    days on market $225,990 Active 58 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $225,990 Active 56 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    price $225,990 Active 55 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $222,990 Active 55 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $222,990 Active 54 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,978
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,264
• − Property taxes: −$4,087
• − Insurance: −$1,362
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,678
• − Management: −$1,678
• − Depreciation: −$7,927
• Taxable loss: −$11,019
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,645
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,380/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,965–$29,895 screening

The Brambling Plan in Willis, TX is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a spacious layout and is move-in ready, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading appliances can attract more buyers ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can increase appeal to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary C C Hardy El F TX #2,464/4,322 Nat'l #26,279/41,679 Middle Lynn Lucas Middle F TX #1,156/1,662 Nat'l #9,659/14,009 High Willis H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willis, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 0% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $222,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Heat pump
• Home design: Single-family plan homeAddress: Willis, TX (Canyon Falls area)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1993

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating
• Interior features: Plan: The Brambling (new construction plan)