101 W Mill St · Shelbina, MO 63468

$85,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,268 sqft · Other public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1948 0.91 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss out on this cute ranch style home on large city lot in small town setting. Three bedroom, two bath with all appliances, including the washer and dryer. The garage door has been purchased and ready to be installed by the new owner. Large wrap around deck is a great place for your outside entertainment needs and the mature trees provide plenty of shade on these warm summer days and evenings. Call Carla 660-651-8690 at Stephens Real Estate for your personal showing.

Key facts

• 20 x 40 shop
• Large yard
• Spacious lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• LARGE YARD
• 20 X 40 SHOP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Block construction; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Fireplace (1); Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $86k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $288 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $86k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#188 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Shelby County R-IV (rural): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #224 of 324 in MO (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($591 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (6.4% local appreciation)).
• Shelby County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $84,217 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.45%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $45,198
• Equity at exit: $56,047

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.93×
• Total profit: $118,021
• Equity at exit: $103,684

Cash invested: $23,940 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63468

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,051 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$448
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $694/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $288

Break-even live

Break-even rent $686

Max offer price $85,500

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $337	-5% $313	+0% $288	+5% $264	+10% $240
Rent	-10% $205	-5% $247	+0% $288	+5% $330	+10% $371
Rate	-1.0pp $331	-0.5pp $310	base $288	+0.5pp $266	+1.0pp $244

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,375
• Closing costs: $2,565
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,500 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,500 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,500 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,500 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,500 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,500 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,500 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,500 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,500 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,500 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,500 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $85,500 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,500 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,500 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,500 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-29
    listed $85,500 Active
17. 2021-09-10
    soldstatus 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    Don't miss out on this cute ranch style home on large city lot in small town setting. Three bedroom, two bath with all appliances, including the washer and dryer. The garage door has been purchased and ready to be installed by the new owner. Large wrap around deck is a great place for your outside entertainment needs and the mature trees provide plenty of shade on these warm summer days and evenings. Call Carla 660-651-8690 at Stephens Real Estate for your personal showing.

18. 2021-09-10
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    Don't miss out on this cute ranch style home on large city lot in small town setting. Three bedroom, two bath with all appliances, including the washer and dryer. The garage door has been purchased and ready to be installed by the new owner. Large wrap around deck is a great place for your outside entertainment needs and the mature trees provide plenty of shade on these warm summer days and evenings. Call Carla 660-651-8690 at Stephens Real Estate for your personal showing.

19. 2021-07-24
    listed $75,000 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    Don't miss out on this cute ranch style home on large city lot in small town setting. Three bedroom, two bath with all appliances, including the washer and dryer. The garage door has been purchased and ready to be installed by the new owner. Large wrap around deck is a great place for your outside entertainment needs and the mature trees provide plenty of shade on these warm summer days and evenings. Call Carla 660-651-8690 at Stephens Real Estate for your personal showing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $694 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $829 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$135/yr (+$11/mo · 19.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,611
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,789
• − Property taxes: −$694
• − Insurance: −$428
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,009
• − Management: −$1,009
• − Depreciation: −$2,487
• Taxable income: $2,195
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$527
• After-tax cash flow: $2,934/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2928110
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $36,627
• Composite: 29.44/100
• National rank: #6517
• State rank: #224 of 324 in MO

Livability — Shelbina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #188
• US rank: #9918

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shelbina, MO
• Population (ZIP): 2,523

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,663 people
• By 2030: 5,352 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 4,762 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 4,200 · -25.8%
• By 2075: 3,058 · -46.0%
• By 2100: 2,166 · -61.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.9% · R 82.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.9pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+62.9 2016: R+59.0 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.42%
• Current HPI: 216.9275
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+14.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $85,500 NECAR
• 2021-09-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-09-10 Sold (MLS) — NECAR
• 2021-07-24 Listed $75,000 NECAR

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $694 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.