2621 Kelli Dr · Denham Springs, LA 70726

$390,000

None bd · None ba · 4,414 sqft · MultiFamily · 457 Days on market

0.28 ac lot Est $388k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

Completely renovated in 2016. No carpet. All four units are occupied by tenants. Great for someone to purchase to live in one unit and rent the other three out. Nice view of Lake and they are located near I-12 exit/Bass Pro.

Key facts

• Near i-12 exit
• View of lake
• 0.28 acre lot

Tags

• VIEW OF LAKE
• NEAR I-12 EXIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive. Per door: $323/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $390k).
• Recommended offer: $343k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 3.9% in Denham Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#29 in LA, #4,939 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 976 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,301/mo this rent would consume 81% of the median local household income ($79k/yr) (locally 1211% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.8% rent growth), your $109k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 457 days — a 12% lower offer ($343k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $343,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 457 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.89%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $388,432
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2621 Kelli Dr	0.00mi	—/—	4,414 (0%)	1mo	$390,000	$88	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $23,780
• Equity at exit: $58,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $146,147
• Equity at exit: $33,720

Cash invested: $109,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70726

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 976
• Price-to-rent: 24.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,301 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$261 /mo · $3,134/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,113
• Net cashflow: $1,292

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,665

Max offer price $390,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,513	-5% $1,403	+0% $1,292	+5% $1,182	+10% $1,072
Rent	-10% $874	-5% $1,083	+0% $1,292	+5% $1,502	+10% $1,711
Rate	-1.0pp $1,489	-0.5pp $1,392	base $1,292	+0.5pp $1,191	+1.0pp $1,088

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	2	1.5	$5,300
Total (4 units)			$5,301

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,500
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending 224-char remark

   Show marketing remark (224 chars)

   Completely renovated in 2016. No carpet. All four units are occupied by tenants. Great for someone to purchase to live in one unit and rent the other three out. Nice view of Lake and they are located near I-12 exit/Bass Pro.

2. 2026-04-15
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (224 chars)

   Completely renovated in 2016. No carpet. All four units are occupied by tenants. Great for someone to purchase to live in one unit and rent the other three out. Nice view of Lake and they are located near I-12 exit/Bass Pro.

3. 2025-01-13
   listed $390,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (224 chars)

   Completely renovated in 2016. No carpet. All four units are occupied by tenants. Great for someone to purchase to live in one unit and rent the other three out. Nice view of Lake and they are located near I-12 exit/Bass Pro.

4. 2025-01-13
   listed $390,000 Active 224-char remark

   Show marketing remark (224 chars)

   Completely renovated in 2016. No carpet. All four units are occupied by tenants. Great for someone to purchase to live in one unit and rent the other three out. Nice view of Lake and they are located near I-12 exit/Bass Pro.

5. 2011-11-08
   soldstatus
6. 2011-10-12
   soldstatus
7. 2011-01-21
   listed $325,000
8. 2009-03-28
   listed $325,000
9. 2009-03-28
   listed $325,000
10. 2007-06-28
    listed $384,000
11. 2007-06-28
    listed $384,000
12. 2006-10-05
    soldstatus
13. 2006-08-17
    listed $250,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,134 · $261/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,134 · $261/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,612
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$3,134
• − Insurance: −$7,069
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,089
• − Management: −$5,089
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable income: $10,040
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,410
• After-tax cash flow: $13,099/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $56,755
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3811
• State rank: #13 of 98 in LA

Livability — Denham Springs

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #4939

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Denham Springs, LA
• County: Livingston Parish · 87,496 people
• City population: 63,575
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 63,575
• Household income: $78,621
• Rent vs Own: 27.0% rent · 73.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1211.0

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,511 people
• By 2030: 168,241 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 186,252 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 201,516 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 231,217 · +45.9%
• By 2100: 241,697 · +52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.1% · R 83.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+70.0 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+70.4 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.37%
• Current HPI: 170.2207
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.83%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+56.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-15 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2025-01-13 Listed $390,000 GBRMLS
• 2025-01-13 Listed $390,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2011-11-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-10-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-01-21 Listed $325,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2009-03-28 Listed $325,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2009-03-28 Listed $325,000 GBRMLS
• 2007-06-28 Listed $384,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2007-06-28 Listed $384,000 GBRMLS
• 2006-10-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-08-17 Listed $250,000 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,134 · +12.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.