12794 Couwlier Ave · Warren, MI 48089

$149,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1960

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

FOR SALE & acirc; & euro; & ldquo; MOVE-IN READY HOME IN WARREN! ?? LAND CONTRACT ONLY!!! ?? Southeast Warren ?? $149,900 ? ? HOME FEATURES: & acirc; & euro; & cent; 3 Bedrooms ??? & acirc; & euro; & cent; 1 Full Updated Bathroom ?? (ceramic tile) & acirc; & euro; & cent; Updated Kitchen Cabinets & acirc; & euro; & cent; Kitchen Appliances Included & acirc; & euro; & cent; Brand New Carpet in All Bedrooms & acirc; & euro; & cent; New Laminate Flooring (living room, hallway & amp; kitchen) & acirc; & euro; & cent; Spacious Living Room & acirc; & euro; & cent; Full Bas

Key facts

• New carpet
• Full basement
• Updated bathroom

Tags

• UPDATED BATHROOM
• UPDATED KITCHEN CABINETS
• KITCHEN APPLIANCES INCLUDED
• NEW CARPET
• NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• FULL BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 5.2% in Warren — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in MI, #4,491 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime D-.
• Van Dyke Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #512 of 540 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mckinley Elementary School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,110 of 1,397 statewide, top 81%, 344 students, 96% FRL); Lincoln Middle School (math 7% / reading 22%, grade F, #460 of 493 statewide, top 93%, 401 students, 96% FRL); Lincoln High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #692 of 713 statewide, top 98%, 440 students, 91% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $137,066 (8.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.38%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $81,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12479 Sidonie Ave	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	890 (-1%)	4mo	$124,000	$139	83
12753 Georgiana Ave	0.31mi	3/1.0	888 (-1%)	2mo	$120,000	$135	82
13046 Sherman Ave	0.20mi	4/1.0 (+1)	870 (-3%)	1mo	$120,000	$138	79
12416 Vernon Ave	0.34mi	3/1.0	944 (+5%)	2mo	$128,000	$136	74
20543 Waltham St	0.52mi	3/1.0	890 (-1%)	1mo	$50,000	$56	73
13505 Saint Andrews Ave	0.45mi	2/1.5 (-1)	888 (-1%)	2mo	$86,000	$97	68
20300 Hickory St	0.64mi	3/1.0	918 (+2%)	1mo	$31,000	$34	66
12484 Sherman Ave	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (-11%)	3mo	$72,000	$90	64
20200 Alcoy St	0.70mi	3/1.0	917 (+2%)	2mo	$55,100	$60	62
20218 Hickory St	0.71mi	3/1.0	930 (+3%)	2mo	$26,000	$28	60
20218 Goulburn St	0.66mi	3/1.0	965 (+7%)	1mo	$12,000	$12	56
20541 Barlow St	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (+9%)	2mo	$60,000	$61	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-19,067
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-10,115
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48089

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,371 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,811/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,265

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $168	-5% $126	+0% $83	+5% $41	+10% $-2
Rent	-10% $-25	-5% $29	+0% $83	+5% $137	+10% $192
Rate	-1.0pp $159	-0.5pp $121	base $83	+0.5pp $44	+1.0pp $5

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21412 Waltham Rd Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	696	$1,225	$1.76	45d	1	0.09mi
13050 Couwlier Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	850	$1,320	$1.55	0d	1	0.14mi
21311 Waltham Rd Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	0d	1	0.15mi
12846 Georgiana Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	912	$1,300	$1.43	26d	1	0.31mi
12807 Coleen Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,250	$1.16	26d	1	0.33mi
13501 Vernon Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	850	$1,300	$1.53	26d	1	0.43mi
20553 Hamburg St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1074	$1,300	$1.21	5d	1	0.52mi
20296 Waltham St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	986	$1,300	$1.32	19d	1	0.56mi
22852 Sharrow Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	6d	1	0.59mi
20242 Hickory St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	747	$1,300	$1.74	13d	1	0.67mi
20091 Barlow St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	930	$1,300	$1.40	19d	1	0.70mi
20227 Pelkey St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	968	$1,350	$1.39	19d	1	0.70mi
20215 Schoenherr St Unit 1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	19d	1	0.74mi
20027 Alcoy St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,349	$1.35	19d	1	0.77mi
11319 Chalmers Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	975	$1,500	$1.54	26d	1	0.88mi
14068 Carlisle St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1020	$1,300	$1.27	26d	1	0.90mi
11236 Studebaker Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	672	$1,175	$1.75	45d	1	0.94mi
11228 Sherman Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	14d	1	0.96mi
11359 Maxwell Ave Unit 11359 Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	5d	1	0.96mi
11076 Hudson Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	936	$1,395	$1.49	4d	1	1.04mi
11331 Continental Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	765	$1,250	$1.63	26d	1	1.12mi
8640 Chalmers Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	804	$1,423	$1.77	26d	1	1.21mi
8632 Studebaker Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	761	$1,300	$1.71	4d	1	1.22mi
13669 Pfent St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1031	$1,374	$1.33	19d	1	1.29mi
19220 Alcoy St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1023	$1,350	$1.32	19d	1	1.30mi
8693 Paige Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	26d	1	1.33mi
19170 Joann St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.0	1020	$1,400	$1.37	45d	1	1.34mi
8707 Continental Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	968	$1,200	$1.24	19d	1	1.35mi
8707 Continental Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	6d	1	1.35mi
19143 Fairport St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1070	$1,225	$1.14	19d	1	1.35mi
11076 Essex Ave Warren, MI	4.0	1.0	1072	$1,400	$1.31	45d	1	1.37mi
19335 Hoover St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	620	$1,099	$1.77	19d	1	1.38mi
19335 Hoover St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	620	$1,099	$1.77	45d	1	1.38mi
8716 Timken Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,400	$1.39	26d	1	1.41mi
8636 Republic Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	16d	1	1.42mi
8285 Rivard Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	902	$1,549	$1.72	26d	1	1.42mi
8509 Paige Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	26d	1	1.43mi
8242 Jackson Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	840	$1,198	$1.43	45d	1	1.45mi
11130 Stephens Rd Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	750	$1,275	$1.70	1d	1	1.46mi
8251 Hudson Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	908	$1,400	$1.54	26d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,900 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $149,900 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-05-20
    listed $149,900 Active
14. 2015-01-20
    historical
15. 2015-01-20
    historical
16. 2014-12-15
    listed $19,900
17. 2014-12-15
    listed $19,900
18. 2014-11-22
    historical
19. 2014-11-22
    historical
20. 2014-10-28
    listed $19,900
21. 2014-10-28
    historical
22. 2014-10-28
    listed $19,900 Active
23. 2014-10-28
    historical
24. 2014-10-28
    historical
25. 2014-10-06
    listed $19,900
26. 2014-10-02
    listed $29,900
27. 2014-10-02
    listed $29,900
28. 2014-10-02
    historical
29. 2014-09-16
    historical
30. 2014-09-15
    listed $27,500
31. 2014-09-15
    listed $27,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,811 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,060 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: +$249/yr (+$21/mo · 13.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,448
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,811
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,316
• − Management: −$1,316
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$1,502
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$360
• After-tax cash flow: $1,360/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Van Dyke Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2634680
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $33,231
• Composite: 10.46/100
• National rank: #9784
• State rank: #512 of 540 in MI

Livability — Warren

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #171
• US rank: #4491

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warren, MI
• County: Macomb County · 638,552 people
• City population: 114,937
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 31,853
• Household income: $52,366
• Rent vs Own: 43.4% rent · 56.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1754.0

Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 31% Asian 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.46%
• Current HPI: 154.8325
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+445.1% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $149,900 FSBO.com
• 2015-01-20 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-01-20 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2014-12-15 Listed $19,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-12-15 Listed $19,900 REALCOMP
• 2014-11-22 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2014-11-22 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-10-28 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2014-10-28 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-10-28 Listed $19,900 REALCOMP
• 2014-10-28 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-10-28 Listed $19,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-10-06 Listed $19,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-10-02 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-10-02 Listed $29,900 REALCOMP
• 2014-10-02 Listed $29,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-09-16 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2014-09-15 Listed $27,500 REALCOMP
• 2014-09-15 Listed $27,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,811 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.