15619 Ripplewind Ln · Houston, TX 77068

$299,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,737 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1977 8,833 sqft lot Est $307k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to timeless charm and everyday luxury in the heart of Olde Oaks. This beautifully remodeled 4-bedroom, 2½-bath home offers space, style, and comfort throughout. A NEW roof (July 2025) and included appliances add peace of mind, while the chef’s kitchen shines with double ovens, a gas range, and abundant storage. The spacious living area features an impressive 17-ft ceiling, filling the home with natural light and warmth. The elegant primary suite includes three walk-in closets and a private sitting area or study, creating the perfect retreat. A cheerful sunroom/game room provides additional versatility, and the upstairs balcony overlooks the open living area below.

Key facts

• Double ovens
• 17-ft ceiling
• Abundant storage

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• DOUBLE OVENS
• GAS RANGE
• ABUNDANT STORAGE
• 17-FT CEILING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Disclosures: Municipal Utility District disclosure and Seller disclosure
• HOA & community: Association: Olde Oaks/Crest Management; Annual association fee: $600; Community features include curbs

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Garage parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 1977; Asphalt road access; Subdivision lot
• Construction: Cement siding; Wood siding
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Fence (back yard); Sprinkler/irrigation; Private yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Double oven; Dishwasher; Electric oven; Gas cooktop; Garbage disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 14
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric) with zoned controls; Central air conditioning with gas and zoned cooling
• Interior features: Balcony; Crown molding; Double vanity; High ceilings; Primary bathroom with bath in primary bedroom; Pantry; Tub with shower; Vaulted ceilings; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $271k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pat Reynolds El (math 18% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 836 students, 86% FRL); Edwin M Wells Middle (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,616 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 907 students, 89% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 66% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,762 (9.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.23%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $306,544
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3502 Stoney Oak Dr	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,630 (-4%)	6mo	$350,000	$133	84
3506 Woodbriar Dr	0.15mi	4/2.5	2,459 (-10%)	1mo	$364,900	$148	75
3630 Glenpine Dr	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,689 (-2%)	6mo	$296,000	$110	75
3614 Shanemoss Ct	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,852 (+4%)	2mo	$299,990	$105	69
15007 Walters Rd	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,730 (-0%)	1mo	$279,900	$103	68
16011 Pebble Bend Dr	0.31mi	4/3.5	2,907 (+6%)	5mo	$409,000	$141	66
15302 Walters Rd	0.35mi	4/2.5	3,059 (+12%)	4mo	$215,000	$70	61
15406 Falling Creek Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,950 (+8%)	3mo	$315,000	$107	59
3735 Pineleaf Dr	0.42mi	4/2.5	2,387 (-13%)	6mo	$267,900	$112	54
3818 Gladeridge Dr	0.59mi	4/2.5	3,068 (+12%)	6mo	$335,000	$109	47
3834 Gladeridge Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,408 (-12%)	6mo	$315,950	$131	45
15515 San Milo Dr	0.70mi	4/3.5	3,056 (+12%)	2mo	$345,000	$113	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-42,959
• Equity at exit: $56,397

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-34,190
• Equity at exit: $46,447

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77068

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,708 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$477 /mo · $5,728/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$569
• Net cashflow: $-86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,816

Max offer price $284,707

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $84	-5% $-1	+0% $-86	+5% $-171	+10% $-256
Rent	-10% $-300	-5% $-193	+0% $-86	+5% $21	+10% $128
Rate	-1.0pp $65	-0.5pp $-10	base $-86	+0.5pp $-164	+1.0pp $-243

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6302 Laver Love Dr Spring, TX	4.0	3.5	3553	$3,549	$1.00	7d	1	1.03mi
17734 Moss Point Dr Spring, TX	4.0	3.5	2734	$2,470	$0.90	17d	1	1.09mi
16415 Lapis River Dr Spring, TX	4.0	2.5	2804	$2,500	$0.89	45d	1	1.42mi
4622 Falling Sun Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2485	$2,500	$1.01	45d	1	1.42mi
4807 Wellington Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2876	$2,500	$0.87	45d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,900 Pending 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Pending 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $299,900 Pending 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $299,900 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $310,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $310,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $310,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $310,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $310,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    listed $310,000 Active
17. 2026-04-07
    historical
18. 2026-03-06
    historical $2,450
19. 2026-02-22
    price $2,450
20. 2026-02-15
    listed $2,700
21. 2026-02-14
    listed $339,900 Active
22. 2026-02-10
    historical
23. 2025-10-25
    price $369,900
24. 2025-10-25
    listed $375,000 Active
25. 2025-09-18
    soldstatus Closed
26. 2025-09-16
    status Pending
27. 2025-08-24
    historical Active Under Contract
28. 2025-08-18
    price $320,000
29. 2025-08-01
    listed $325,000 Active
30. 1994-09-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,728 · $477/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,728 · $477/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,491
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$5,728
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,599
• − Management: −$2,599
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$6,058
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,454
• After-tax cash flow: $422/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,226,434
• Population (ZIP): 12,289

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% Black 31% White 23% Two or more races 11% Asian 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Scandinavian 2% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 28% Vietnamese 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.14%
• Current HPI: 206.5475
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Rental Removed $2,450 HARMLS
• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $2,450 HARMLS
• 2026-02-15 Listed for Rent $2,700 HARMLS
• 2026-02-14 Listed $339,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-25 Price Changed $369,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-25 Listed $375,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-08-24 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-01 Listed $325,000 HARMLS
• 1994-09-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,728 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.