Pelican Plan · Mascotte, FL 34736

$265,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,558 sqft · Townhouse · 173 Days on market

Fair condition Garage $263/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Pelican is an approx. 1,558 square foot townhome with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage. A spacious great room and open kitchen give this townhouse a light and airy feel. The kitchen island is an ideal spot to cook a meal or entertain. A rear patio provides outdoor living space. Plus, a one-car garage and half bath are located downstairs for added convenience. Upstairs are two bedrooms sharing a full bath and a large primary suite with oversized walk-in closet and double vanity. Enjoy multiple storage areas including under stair storage, a large walk-in kitchen pantry, separate laundry room, linen closet and 3-bedroom closets.

Key facts

• Double vanity
• Great room
• Kitchen island

Tags

• GREAT ROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• REAR PATIO
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN CLOSET
• DOUBLE VANITY

🏗️ New construction. The $265,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $285,344.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $265k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-443 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (14.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#405 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Groveland Elementary School (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,854 of 2,144 statewide, top 87%, 744 students, 63% FRL); Gray Middle School (math 45% / reading 45%, grade D, #310 of 571 statewide, top 56%, 1,148 students, 47% FRL); South Lake High School (math 36% / reading 39%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 2,169 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 785 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $221,206 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.66%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $285,344
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: -4.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7631 Waterscape Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,558 (0%)	6mo	$290,000	$186	91
7633 Waterscape Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,558 (0%)	6mo	$285,000	$183	90
7607 Waterscape Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,558 (0%)	13mo	$289,999	$186	87
7801 Waterscape Dr	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,558 (0%)	9mo	$283,400	$182	82
7771 Waterscape Dr	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,552 (-0%)	13mo	$310,000	$200	79
7649 Waterscape Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,455 (-7%)	12mo	$252,000	$173	74
7605 Waterscape Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,404 (-10%)	13mo	$283,654	$202	71
7651 Waterscape Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,404 (-10%)	12mo	$260,000	$185	68
7803 Waterscape Dr	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,404 (-10%)	12mo	$252,000	$179	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-77,268
• Equity at exit: $42,546

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-114,806
• Equity at exit: $24,671

Cash invested: $79,896 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 9 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 54.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $235,589 ($168/sqft)
• Median days on market: 65 d
• This list price: 56% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +9.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34736

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 785
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,268 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,496
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$357 /mo · $4,280/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$263
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $-443

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,829

Max offer price $221,206

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-246	-5% $-345	+0% $-443	+5% $-542	+10% $-640
Rent	-10% $-622	-5% $-533	+0% $-443	+5% $-354	+10% $-264
Rate	-1.0pp $-300	-0.5pp $-371	base $-443	+0.5pp $-517	+1.0pp $-592

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,336
• Closing costs: $8,560
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7629 Waterscape Dr Groveland, FL	3.0	2.5	1404	$1,950	$1.39	30d	1	0.13mi
7633 Waterscape DR Groveland, FL	3.0	2.5	1558	$2,000	$1.28	10d	1	0.13mi
7412 Capstone Dr Groveland, FL	4.0	2.0	1848	$2,400	$1.30	10d	1	0.33mi
7201 Big Cedar Aly Groveland, FL	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,000	$1.33	119d	1	0.47mi
338 Ridgemark Ave Groveland, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,300	$1.26	100d	1	0.51mi
253 Luxmore Rd Groveland, FL	3.0	2.0	1547	$2,100	$1.36	27d	1	0.68mi
201 Sangmon Ct Groveland, FL	3.0	2.5	1920	$2,149	$1.12	70d	1	0.82mi
6612 Tempo Way Mascotte, FL	3.0	2.0	1990	$2,600	$1.31	100d	1	1.13mi
6612 Tempo Way Groveland, FL	3.0	2.0	1990	$2,395	$1.20	83d	1	1.13mi
2009 Sloans Outlook Dr Groveland, FL	3.0	2.0	1670	$2,300	$1.38	5d	1	1.17mi
6422 Quartet St Unit Na Mascotte, FL	3.0	2.0	1766	$2,395	$1.36	7d	1	1.35mi
6390 Chorus Dr Mascotte, FL	4.0	3.0	2178	$2,650	$1.22	7d	1	1.40mi
6337 Chorus Dr Groveland, FL	3.0	2.0	1772	$2,250	$1.27	119d	1	1.43mi
6336 Chorus Dr Mascotte, FL	4.0	2.0	1994	$2,390	$1.20	62d	1	1.45mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: New construction plan named PelicanAddress: Groveland, FL 34736
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,558

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open living area (plan: Pelican)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $265,000 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $265,000 Active 172 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   pricedays on market $265,000 Active 171 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $273,694 Active 170 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $273,694 Active 169 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $273,694 Active 168 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $273,694 Active 167 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $273,694 Active 166 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $273,694 Active 165 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $273,694 Active 164 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $273,694 Active 163 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $273,694 Active 162 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $273,694 Active 161 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $273,694 Active 160 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $273,694 Active 154 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $273,694 Active 153 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $273,694 Active 152 DOM
18. 2026-08-21
    days on market $266,000 Active 151 DOM
19. 2026-08-20
    days on market $266,000 Active 150 DOM
20. 2026-08-19
    days on market $266,000 Active 149 DOM
21. 2026-08-18
    days on market $266,000 Active 148 DOM
22. 2026-08-17
    days on market $266,000 Active 147 DOM
23. 2026-08-16
    pricedays on market $266,000 Active 146 DOM
24. 2026-08-14
    days on market $260,694 Active 144 DOM
25. 2026-08-13
    days on market $260,694 Active 143 DOM
26. 2026-08-12
    days on market $260,694 Active 142 DOM
27. 2026-08-11
    days on market $260,694 Active 141 DOM
28. 2026-08-10
    days on market $260,694 Active 140 DOM
29. 2026-08-09
    days on market $260,694 Active 139 DOM
30. 2026-08-08
    days on market $260,694 Active 138 DOM
31. 2026-08-06
    days on market $260,694 Active 136 DOM
32. 2026-08-05
    days on market $260,694 Active 135 DOM
33. 2026-08-04
    days on market $260,694 Active 134 DOM
34. 2026-08-03
    days on market $260,694 Active 133 DOM
35. 2026-07-31
    days on market $260,694 Active 130 DOM
36. 2026-07-30
    days on market $260,694 Active 129 DOM
37. 2026-07-30
    days on market $260,694 Active 128 DOM
38. 2026-07-28
    days on market $260,694 Active 127 DOM
39. 2026-07-26
    days on market $260,694 Active 125 DOM
40. 2026-07-24
    days on market $260,694 Active 123 DOM
41. 2026-07-23
    days on market $260,694 Active 122 DOM
42. 2026-07-22
    days on market $260,694 Active 121 DOM
43. 2026-07-21
    pricedays on market $260,694 Active 120 DOM
44. 2026-07-14
    days on market $243,310 Active 119 DOM
45. 2026-07-14
    price $243,310 Active 118 DOM
46. 2026-07-13
    days on market $243,110 Active 118 DOM
47. 2026-07-13
    days on market $243,110 Active 117 DOM
48. 2026-07-11
    pricedays on market $243,110 Active 116 DOM
49. 2026-07-10
    days on market $309,694 Active 115 DOM
50. 2026-07-09
    days on market $309,694 Active 114 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,216
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,984
• − Property taxes: −$4,280
• − Insurance: −$1,427
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,177
• − Management: −$2,177
• − HOA: −$3,156
• − Depreciation: −$8,301
• Taxable loss: −$10,286
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,469
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,850/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,790–$23,370 screening

The home is in fair condition with some cosmetic repairs needed, particularly on the interior walls and landscaping. Painting the interior walls and improving the landscaping would significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Interior walls — The textured finish on the interior walls appears to be peeling and in poor condition.
• Minor Landscaping — The landscaping appears to be in good condition with no visible damage.
• Major Interior paint — The interior walls have a textured finish and appear to be in poor condition.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Painting the interior walls will improve the appearance and value of the home. ↑
• Rental Landscaping — Improving the landscaping will enhance the curb appeal and attract potential renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Groveland Elementary School F FL #1,854/2,144 Nat'l #26,096/41,679 Middle Gray Middle School D FL #310/571 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High South Lake High School F FL #336/667 Nat'l #8,937/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Mascotte

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #405
• US rank: #7156

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mascotte, FL
• County: Lake County · 386,640 people
• City population: 33,565
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,001
• Household income: $90,545
• Rent vs Own: 11.3% rent · 88.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 0% of renters

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Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 17% Black 15% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 15% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.23%
• Current HPI: 265.3457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.67%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: New construction plan named PelicanAddress: Groveland, FL 34736
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,558

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open living area (plan: Pelican)