6 Samsel Ave · Johnsonburg, PA 15845

$74,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,404 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1950 9,148 sqft lot $53/sqft · 15% below area Est $89k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.9/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

1.5 story home with 3 beds | 2 baths and spacious living and kitchen, with custom built cabinets. Insulated windows, newer roof, vinyl siding, gutters, hot water tank all within approximately 5 years. Nice backyard and covered deck next to Powers Run. Call today to make this house your home!

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Newer roof
• Insulated windows

Tags

• CUSTOM BUILT CABINETS
• INSULATED WINDOWS
• NEWER ROOF
• VINYL SIDING
• COVERED DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; Concrete parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence (single-unit); Residential property; R-1 zoning
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating; Has heating
• Interior features: Insulated windows; Basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-663/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $65k (13.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $65k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#825 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Johnsonburg Area SD (rural): math 40% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 53 units permitted in Elk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($518 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (9.8% local appreciation)).
• Elk County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $75k implies a 127% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,135 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.24%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $88,549
• List price: $74,900
• Delta: -15.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

9.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $36,645
• Equity at exit: $66,465

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.30×
• Total profit: $111,073
• Equity at exit: $142,273

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15845

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,212 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,946/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $-55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,282

Max offer price $65,135

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-13	-5% $-34	+0% $-55	+5% $-76	+10% $-98
Rent	-10% $-151	-5% $-103	+0% $-55	+5% $-7	+10% $40
Rate	-1.0pp $-18	-0.5pp $-36	base $-55	+0.5pp $-75	+1.0pp $-94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $74,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,900 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,900 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,900 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,900 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $74,900 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,900 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,900 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $74,900 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $74,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $74,900 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,900 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,900 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,900 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $74,900 Active 292-char remark
17. 2010-07-27
    soldstatus $33,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,946 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,946 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,543
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,946
• − Insurance: −$5,493
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,163
• − Management: −$1,163
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable loss: −$1,597
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$383
• After-tax cash flow: $-280/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnsonburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4212570
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $42,329
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3343
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Johnsonburg

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #825
• US rank: #8590

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnsonburg, PA
• Population (ZIP): 3,109

Population outlook (Elk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,567 people
• By 2030: 27,172 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 24,111 · -15.6%
• By 2050: 20,967 · -26.6%
• By 2075: 15,355 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 10,418 · -63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Slovak 4% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Elk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.0) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -51.3pp toward R · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: -47.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.0 2020: R+45.1 2016: R+43.8 2012: R+15.7 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.82%
• Current HPI: 177.5221
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+127.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $74,900 ECBR
• 2010-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,946 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.