653 E Willow St · Elburn, IL 60119

$275,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,625 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2004 Est $369k · 25% under $270/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just reduced! Gorgeous and spacious townhome located just minutes from downtown Elburn and train station. Featuring 3 levels of living space including large family room with balcony access, breakfast bar, dining room just off of kitchen, 2nd floor laundry room, english basement, walk in closet space and attached 2 car garage. Property is in wonderful condition and shows exceptionally well. 24 hour notice required before showings.

Key facts

• $270 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2004

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $255 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $275k).
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.9% in Elburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#773 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Kaneland CUSD 302 (rural): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #122 of 620 in IL (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Kaneland Blackberry Creek Elem (523 students, 0% FRL); Kaneland Harter Middle School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #332 of 665 statewide, top 55%, 894 students, 0% FRL); Kaneland Senior High School (math 34% / reading 43%, grade F, #100 of 693 statewide, top 15%, 1,309 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,944 units permitted in Kane County in 2024 (357 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask is 60% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $167k; list at $275k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $275,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.97%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $368,875
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
860 Warne Ct	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,584 (-2%)	16mo	$378,000	$239	60
411 S 1st St	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,600 (-2%)	3mo	$349,900	$219	58
875 Station Blvd	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,593 (-2%)	2mo	$365,000	$229	55
811 Station Blvd	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,721 (+6%)	7mo	$389,900	$227	52
465 Conley Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,479 (-9%)	6mo	$337,000	$228	51
231 E Shannon St	0.42mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,786 (+10%)	8mo	$335,000	$188	48
688 Westlake Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,780 (+10%)	14mo	$415,500	$233	48
221 E Shannon St E	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (+11%)	9mo	$339,000	$188	48
763 Station Blvd	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-2%)	14mo	$379,900	$237	48
816 Simpson Ave	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,801 (+11%)	4mo	$396,500	$220	46
851 Station Blvd	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,768 (+9%)	14mo	$360,000	$204	40
779 Station Blvd	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,801 (+11%)	14mo	$393,000	$218	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-28,015
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-2,223
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60119

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,269 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$501 /mo · $6,013/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$270
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$687
• Net cashflow: $255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,947

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $411	-5% $333	+0% $255	+5% $177	+10% $99
Rent	-10% $-3	-5% $126	+0% $255	+5% $384	+10% $513
Rate	-1.0pp $393	-0.5pp $325	base $255	+0.5pp $184	+1.0pp $111

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
517 Conley Dr Elburn, IL	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,950	$2.27	0d	1	0.47mi
702 Station Blvd Elburn, IL	4.0	3.5	2158	$3,865	$1.79	45d	1	0.58mi
870 Station Blvd Elburn, IL	3.0	2.5	1668	$3,115	$1.87	45d	1	0.72mi
931 Station Blvd Elburn, IL	3.0	2.5	1635	$3,100	$1.90	26d	1	0.77mi
730 Elizabeth St Elburn, IL	3.0	2.5	1716	$3,457	$2.01	0d	1	0.95mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $270 · $3,240/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $275,000 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $275,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2017-12-29
   soldstatus $167,000
4. 2017-12-14
   soldstatus $167,000 Closed Sale 433-char remark

   Show marketing remark (433 chars)

   Just reduced! Gorgeous and spacious townhome located just minutes from downtown Elburn and train station. Featuring 3 levels of living space including large family room with balcony access, breakfast bar, dining room just off of kitchen, 2nd floor laundry room, english basement, walk in closet space and attached 2 car garage. Property is in wonderful condition and shows exceptionally well. 24 hour notice required before showings.

5. 2017-11-16
   status Pending 433-char remark

   Show marketing remark (433 chars)

   Just reduced! Gorgeous and spacious townhome located just minutes from downtown Elburn and train station. Featuring 3 levels of living space including large family room with balcony access, breakfast bar, dining room just off of kitchen, 2nd floor laundry room, english basement, walk in closet space and attached 2 car garage. Property is in wonderful condition and shows exceptionally well. 24 hour notice required before showings.

6. 2017-11-06
   price $167,000 433-char remark

   Show marketing remark (433 chars)

   Just reduced! Gorgeous and spacious townhome located just minutes from downtown Elburn and train station. Featuring 3 levels of living space including large family room with balcony access, breakfast bar, dining room just off of kitchen, 2nd floor laundry room, english basement, walk in closet space and attached 2 car garage. Property is in wonderful condition and shows exceptionally well. 24 hour notice required before showings.

7. 2017-10-05
   listed $172,000 New 433-char remark

   Show marketing remark (433 chars)

   Just reduced! Gorgeous and spacious townhome located just minutes from downtown Elburn and train station. Featuring 3 levels of living space including large family room with balcony access, breakfast bar, dining room just off of kitchen, 2nd floor laundry room, english basement, walk in closet space and attached 2 car garage. Property is in wonderful condition and shows exceptionally well. 24 hour notice required before showings.

8. 2010-04-04
   historical
9. 2009-10-01
   price Price Change
10. 2009-03-04
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,013 · $501/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,128 · $511/mo
• Expected delta: +$115/yr (+$10/mo · 1.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,231
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$6,013
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,138
• − Management: −$3,138
• − HOA: −$3,240
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$1,078
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$259
• After-tax cash flow: $3,318/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kaneland CUSD 302
• NCES district ID: 1724480
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $96,357
• Composite: 36.82/100
• National rank: #4562
• State rank: #122 of 620 in IL

Livability — Elburn

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #773
• US rank: #15469

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elburn, IL
• Population (ZIP): 10,964

Population outlook (Kane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 559,449 people
• By 2030: 568,757 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 575,969 · +3.0%
• By 2050: 563,477 · +0.7%
• By 2075: 492,321 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 380,943 · -31.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Portuguese 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kane

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.4) · D 54.0% · R 44.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.4pp toward R · 2008: 11.8pp · 2024: 9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.4 2020: D+14.4 2016: D+8.9 2012: D+0.9 2008: D+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.80%
• Current HPI: 205.6117
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2017-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $167,000 Public Records
• 2017-12-14 Sold (MLS) $167,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-16 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-06 Price Changed $167,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-05 Listed $172,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-04 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-10-01 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-03-04 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $6,013 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.