🏗️ New Construction
20535 Trout Ter · Lakewood Ranch, FL
Flood risk No data
- FEMA flood zone
- —
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
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- Est. flood insurance / yr
- —
Fire risk No data
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- —
Heat risk No data
- Hot days now (above threshold)
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- Hot days in 30 yrs
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Wind risk No data
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
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Air-quality risk No data
- Unhealthy air days now
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- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
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Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Schools +6.9/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Livability +2.5/5.0
- Cash flow +1.4/30.0
- Rent growth +1.2/5.0
- 1% rule +0.0/10.0
- DSCR +0.0/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$434,998
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Golf membership included! Step inside this beautifully designed 1,417 square foot home and discover single-story living that perfectly blends style and convenience. The open-concept layout features a stunning kitchen with quartz countertops, a new stainless steel gas range and designer cabinetry, all flowing seamlessly into the elegant dining and spacious living areas. Enjoy effortless indoor-outdoor living with a nearby lanai, ideal for year-round relaxation. Three private bedrooms are thoughtfully tucked away, including a luxurious owner's suite with a spa-inspired walk-in shower and a generous walk-in closet. Energy-efficient touches like a Honeywell Home T6 Pro Wifi smart thermostat, Ring Video Doorbell Pro and hurricane impact windows offer peace of mind and modern comfort. The 2-car garage features a hurricane-rated door and keyless entry for added security. With so many sought-after features and a layout designed for today's lifestyles, this home is sure to attract attention-act now before it's gone!
Key facts
- Elegant dining room
- Gorgeous kitchen
- 5,000 sq ft lot
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $435k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-29k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (40.6% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $293k (32.7% below list).
- Recommended offer: $258k (40.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
- Cap rate 1.5% vs local median 2.9% in Lakewood Ranch — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
Location & tenants
- Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
- Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: B.D. Gullett Elementary School (math 78% / reading 73%, grade A, #211 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,121 students, 20% FRL); R. Dan Nolan Middle School (math 79% / reading 72%, grade A, #38 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 760 students, 28% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 51% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
- Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
- Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 1554 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 82d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($428k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.48% ✗
- Cap rate
- 1.53%
- Cash-on-cash
- -17.02%
- DSCR
- 0.24
- GRM
- 17.3
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $607,743
- List price
- $434,998
- Delta
- -28.42%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 2 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18917 Scallop Loop #106 | 1.12mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,366 (-4%) | 1mo | $385,997 | $283 | 53 |
| 19110 Scallop Loop #101 | 1.04mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,300 (-8%) | 1mo | $290,000 | $223 | 46 |
| 18917 Scallop Loop #207 | 1.01mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,569 (+11%) | 1mo | $330,000 | $210 | 41 |
| 19227 Cherrystone Way #101 | 1.20mi | 3/2.0 | 1,741 (+23%) | 1mo | $430,000 | $247 | 39 |
| 19234 Cherrystone Way #101 | 1.20mi | 3/2.0 | 1,741 (+23%) | 1mo | $505,000 | $290 | 39 |
| 18325 Fattoria Ter | 1.44mi | 3/2.0 | 1,672 (+18%) | 1mo | $369,000 | $221 | 39 |
| 19110 Scallop Loop #302 | 0.70mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,154 (-19%) | 1mo | $290,000 | $251 | 36 |
| 19110 Scallop Loop #202 | 1.04mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,154 (-19%) | 1mo | $290,000 | $251 | 34 |
| 19110 Scallop Loop #405 | 1.04mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,154 (-19%) | 1mo | $315,000 | $273 | 34 |
| 19110 Scallop Loop #206 | 1.04mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,154 (-19%) | 1mo | $290,000 | $251 | 34 |
| 19110 Scallop Loop #303 | 1.04mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,154 (-19%) | 1mo | $290,000 | $251 | 34 |
| 19019 Indian Rock Pl | 1.41mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,655 (+17%) | 1mo | $503,000 | $304 | 34 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -53.6%
- Equity multiple
- -0.53×
- Total profit
- $-260,408
- Equity at exit
- $90,616
- IRR
- —
- Equity multiple
- -1.68×
- Total profit
- $-456,346
- Equity at exit
- $52,546
Cash invested: $170,168 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 0 active · 1 under contract
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 34211
- Home prices YoY
- -27.5%
- Rents YoY
- -5.2%
- Active inventory
- 1554
- Price-to-rent
- 12.4×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,926 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$3,187
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$760 /mo · $9,116/yr
- Insurance
- −$253
- HOA
- −$525
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$614
- Net cashflow
- $-2,414
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-1,994 | -5% $-2,204 | +0% $-2,414 | +5% $-2,624 | +10% $-2,834 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-2,645 | -5% $-2,529 | +0% $-2,414 | +5% $-2,298 | +10% $-2,182 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-2,107 | -0.5pp $-2,259 | base $-2,414 | +0.5pp $-2,571 | +1.0pp $-2,731 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $151,936
- Closing costs
- $18,232
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 24 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19140 Scallop Loop Bradenton, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1154 | $2,200 | $1.91 | 9d | 1 | 1.02mi |
| 19140 Scallop Loop Unit 308 Bradenton, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1301 | $2,800 | $2.15 | 119d | 1 | 1.02mi |
| 19140 Scallop Loop Unit 401 Bradenton, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1107 | $2,000 | $1.81 | 119d | 1 | 1.02mi |
| 19140 Scallop Loop Unit 102 Bradenton, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1154 | $2,750 | $2.38 | 99d | 1 | 1.02mi |
| 18923 Scallop Loop Bradenton, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1355 | $2,500 | $1.85 | 9d | 1 | 1.03mi |
| 19116 Scallop Loop #303 Bradenton, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1120 | $2,495 | $2.23 | 82d | 1 | 1.05mi |
| 19116 Scallop Loop Unit 301 Bradenton, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1301 | $2,300 | $1.77 | 9d | 1 | 1.05mi |
| 19116 Scallop Loop #207 Bradenton, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1154 | $3,500 | $3.03 | 9d | 1 | 1.05mi |
| 19116 Scallop Loop Unit 203 Bradenton, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1154 | $2,195 | $1.90 | 119d | 1 | 1.05mi |
| 19116 Scallop Loop #104 Bradenton, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1120 | $2,500 | $2.23 | 7d | 1 | 1.05mi |
| 19116 Scallop Loop Unit 403 Bradenton, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1120 | $2,500 | $2.23 | 111d | 1 | 1.05mi |
| 19110 Scallop Loop Bradenton, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1154 | $2,500 | $2.17 | 82d | 1 | 1.05mi |
| 19116 Scallop Loop #303 Bradenton, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1154 | $2,595 | $2.25 | 74d | 1 | 1.05mi |
| 19116 Scallop Loop #303 Bradenton, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1154 | $2,200 | $1.91 | 71d | 1 | 1.05mi |
| 19007 Scallop Loop Unit 204 Bradenton, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1366 | $2,400 | $1.76 | 111d | 1 | 1.12mi |
| 19015 Scallop Loop Unit 7118 Lakewood Ranch, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1569 | $6,000 | $3.82 | 119d | 1 | 1.13mi |
| 18923 Scallop Loop #205 Bradenton, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1366 | $2,400 | $1.76 | 9d | 1 | 1.13mi |
| 18923 Scallop Loop #105 Bradenton, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1366 | $2,400 | $1.76 | 65d | 1 | 1.13mi |
| 18923 Scallop Loop #206 Bradenton, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1366 | $4,000 | $2.93 | 9d | 1 | 1.13mi |
| 18923 Scallop Loop #104 Bradenton, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1366 | $2,400 | $1.76 | 80d | 1 | 1.13mi |
| 19214 Cherrystone Way Unit 104 Bradenton, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1750 | $4,000 | $2.29 | 9d | 1 | 1.19mi |
| 18117 Gawthrop Dr #104 Bradenton, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1786 | $4,000 | $2.24 | 119d | 1 | 1.46mi |
| 18114 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL | 2.0–3.0 | 2.0 | 1310 | $7,000 | $5.34 | 82d | 4 | 1.48mi |
| 18114 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL | 2.0–3.0 | 2.0 | 1300 | $7,000 | $5.38 | 119d | 5 | 1.48mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Deed-restricted community
- Financial info
- Total monthly fees: $525.83Total annual fees: $6,310Other annual assessment amount: $3,007Lease restrictions apply
- HOA & community
- Has HOA (ICON Management and Calusa Country Club Master Association)Monthly HOA component listed (monthly HOA amount: 133.33)Quarterly association fee ($400)Additional quarterly association fee ($990)Association fee includes common area taxes, pool, internet, grounds maintenance, management, recreational facilitiesAssociation approval requiredCommunity amenities: Clubhouse, fitness center, pool, tennis courts, pickleball courts, golf course, recreation facilities, community mailbox, sidewalks, street lightsPets allowedIrrigation with reclaimed water
Exterior
- Parking
- Attached 2-car garage
- Security
- Gated communityCommunity security
- Utilities
- Public waterPublic sewerElectricity available and connectedCable available and connectedBB/HS internet availableUnderground utilitiesSprinkler meter with recycled irrigation
- Home design
- Residential villaOne storyUnder construction (projected completion: 2026-10-16)South-facing
- Construction
- Block, concrete and stucco constructionTile roofSlab foundationNew constructionBuilt by Lennar (Magnolia model)
- Exterior features
- Rear screened porchSidewalkTennis court(s)Landscaped yardPaved lot
Interior
- Kitchen
- DishwasherDisposalFreezerIce makerMicrowaveRange
- Bedrooms
- 3 bedrooms
- Flooring
- CarpetTile
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling
- Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
- Interior features
- Eat-in kitchenKitchen/family room comboLiving room/dining room comboOpen floorplanSplit bedroom layoutThermostatWalk-in closet(s)Window treatments
- Laundry & utility
- WasherDryerInside laundry roomElectric water heaterExhaust fan
HOA detail $525/mo · $6,300/yr
- Likely covers
- gasinternetsecurity
Listing history 50 events
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2026-09-23days on market $434,998 Active 29 DOM
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2026-09-22days on market $434,998 Active 28 DOM
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2026-09-21days on market $434,998 Active 27 DOM
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2026-09-20days on market $434,998 Active 26 DOM
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2026-09-19days on market $434,998 Active 25 DOM
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2026-09-18days on market $434,998 Active 24 DOM
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2026-09-17days on market $434,998 Active 23 DOM
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2026-09-16days on market $434,998 Active 22 DOM
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2026-09-15days on market $434,998 Active 21 DOM
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2026-09-14days on market $434,998 Active 20 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $434,998 Active 19 DOM
-
2026-09-12days on market $434,998 Active 18 DOM
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2026-09-11days on market $434,998 Active 17 DOM
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2026-09-05days on market $434,998 Active 11 DOM
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2026-09-04days on market $434,998 Active 10 DOM
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2026-09-03days on market $434,998 Active 9 DOM
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2026-08-31days on market $434,998 Active 6 DOM
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2026-08-30days on market $434,998 Active 5 DOM
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2026-08-29days on market $434,998 Active 4 DOM
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2026-08-28days on market $434,998 Active 3 DOM
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2026-08-27days on market $434,998 Active 2 DOM
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2026-08-25days on market $434,998 Active 1 DOM
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2026-08-25days on market $434,998 Active 76 DOM
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2026-08-24days on market $434,998 Active 75 DOM
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2026-08-23days on market $434,998 Active 74 DOM
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2026-08-22days on market $434,998 Active 73 DOM
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2026-08-21days on market $434,998 Active 72 DOM
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2026-08-20days on market $434,998 Active 71 DOM
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2026-08-19days on market $434,998 Active 70 DOM
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2026-08-18days on market $434,998 Active 69 DOM
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2026-08-17days on market $434,998 Active 68 DOM
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2026-08-16days on market $434,998 Active 67 DOM
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2026-08-15days on market $434,998 Active 66 DOM
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2026-08-14days on market $434,998 Active 65 DOM
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2026-08-13days on market $434,998 Active 64 DOM
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2026-08-12days on market $434,998 Active 63 DOM
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2026-08-11days on market $434,998 Active 62 DOM
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2026-08-10days on market $434,998 Active 61 DOM
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2026-08-09days on market $434,998 Active 60 DOM
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2026-08-08days on market $434,998 Active 59 DOM
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2026-08-07days on market $434,998 Active 58 DOM
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2026-08-06days on market $434,998 Active 57 DOM
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2026-08-05days on market $434,998 Active 56 DOM
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2026-08-04days on market $434,998 Active 55 DOM
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2026-08-03days on market $434,998 Active 54 DOM
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2026-07-31days on market $434,998 Active 51 DOM
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2026-07-30days on market $434,998 Active 49 DOM
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2026-07-28days on market $434,998 Active 48 DOM
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2026-07-24days on market $434,998 Active 44 DOM
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2026-07-23days on market $434,998 Active 43 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $35,110
- − Mortgage interest
- −$34,043
- − Property taxes
- −$9,116
- − Insurance
- −$3,039
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,809
- − Management
- −$2,809
- − HOA
- −$6,300
- − Depreciation
- −$17,680
- Taxable loss
- −$40,685
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$9,764
- After-tax cash flow
- $-19,198/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos
This single-story townhouse is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. It's ready for immediate move-in and would benefit from some landscaping and smart home integration to further enhance its value.
Value-add opportunities
- Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and value ↑
- Both smart home integration — increases convenience and marketability ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Manatee
- NCES district ID
- 1201230
- Math proficiency
- 54% ▼ -6.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 50% ▼ -2.00%
- Median HH income
- $49,607
- Composite
- 44.43/100
- National rank
- #2806
- State rank
- #26 of 73 in FL
Livability — Lakewood Ranch
No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)
Census & demographics
- County
- Manatee County · 447,342 people
- City population
- 52,177
- Metro
- North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 24,980
- Household income
- $119,911
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 10% of renters
Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 447,342 people
- By 2030
- 488,911 · +9.3%
- By 2040
- 567,934 · +27.0%
- By 2050
- 637,995 · +42.6%
- By 2075
- 781,970 · +74.8%
- By 2100
- 848,272 · +89.6%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (81%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 2% Native American 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
- Foreign-born
- 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
- Languages at home
- 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%
Political lean MEDSL · Manatee
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -100.84%
- Current HPI
- 265.946
- Rent YoY
- ▼ -5.17%
- Metro
- North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
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| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
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| Retail | 1 | $60B |
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| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
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| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
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| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
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Price history
+0.0% since first listed2 events — show timeline
- 2026-08-25 Listed $434,998 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-06-10 Listed $434,998 Zillow
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…