12505 Oak Pick Ter · Palmetto, FL 34221

$415,840

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,326 sqft · SingleFamily · 107 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $125/sqft · 24% below area Est $547k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This two-story home is the largest plan available in the collection. The first floor is brightened by a contemporary open design that unifies the kitchen, family room and dining room. Off the foyer is a versatile bedroom and flex room, while the owner's suite is nested in the back for privacy. Upstairs are the remaining four bedrooms and an expansive loft.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 106 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $416k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-642 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $323k (22.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (30.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#346 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1452 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,935 (30.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.93%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $547,448
• List price: $415,840
• Delta: -24.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11560 69th Pl	0.58mi	5/3.5 (-1)	3,629 (+9%)	1mo	$585,000	$161	50
6830 E 115th St	0.68mi	5/4.0 (-1)	3,336 (+0%)	12mo	$527,240	$158	49
11593 69th Pl E	0.55mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,100 (-7%)	4mo	$661,090	$213	49
11515 E 69th Pl	0.70mi	5/4.0 (-1)	3,336 (+0%)	13mo	$534,590	$160	47
6849 E 115th St	0.73mi	5/4.0 (-1)	3,336 (+0%)	13mo	$559,900	$168	45
6866 E 115th St	0.73mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,629 (+9%)	14mo	$584,900	$161	28
6853 E 115th St	0.75mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,629 (+9%)	14mo	$597,400	$165	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-116,705
• Equity at exit: $62,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.60×
• Total profit: $-186,870
• Equity at exit: $35,954

Cash invested: $116,435 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 31 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 31.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $478,740 ($146/sqft)
• Median days on market: 47 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1452
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,909 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,181
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$520 /mo · $6,238/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$611
• Net cashflow: $-642

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,722

Max offer price $322,963

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-354	-5% $-498	+0% $-642	+5% $-786	+10% $-929
Rent	-10% $-872	-5% $-757	+0% $-642	+5% $-527	+10% $-412
Rate	-1.0pp $-432	-0.5pp $-536	base $-642	+0.5pp $-750	+1.0pp $-859

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,960
• Closing costs: $12,475
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6219 Springmont Loop Palmetto, FL	5.0	3.5	2574	$3,023	$1.17	33d	1	1.15mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price reported (445540)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home, Trenton planSpec inventory, active listing
• Exterior features: Address: 12505 Oak Pick Ter, Palmetto FL 34221

Interior

• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec new-construction home (Trenton plan)Living area of 3326 (reported)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $415,840 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   pricedays on market $415,840 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $415,340 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $415,340 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $415,340 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $415,340 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $415,340 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $415,340 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $415,340 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $415,340 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $415,340 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $415,340 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    pricedays on market $415,340 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    pricedays on market $415,140 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    pricedays on market $415,040 Active 85 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $414,940 Active 84 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    pricedays on market $414,940 Active 83 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    price $414,840 Active 81 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $414,740 Active 81 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $414,740 Active 80 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    price $414,740 Active 79 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    pricedays on market $414,640 Active 79 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $414,540 Active 78 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    pricedays on market $414,540 Active 77 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $434,440 Active 75 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    price $434,440 Active 74 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $434,340 Active 74 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $434,340 Active 73 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $434,340 Active 71 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $434,340 Active 70 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $434,340 Active 69 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $434,340 Active 68 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    price $434,340 Active 67 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $434,140 Active 67 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $434,140 Active 66 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    pricedays on market $434,140 Active 65 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $434,040 Active 64 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    pricedays on market $434,040 Active 62 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $433,940 Active 60 DOM
40. 2026-06-22
    days on market $433,940 Active 59 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $433,940 Active 56 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $433,940 Active 55 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    pricedays on market $433,940 Active 54 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $433,840 Active 53 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $433,840 Active 51 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $433,840 Active 50 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $433,840 Active 48 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $433,840 Active 47 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $433,840 Active 46 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $433,640 Active 45 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,912
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,294
• − Property taxes: −$6,238
• − Insurance: −$2,877
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,793
• − Management: −$2,793
• − Depreciation: −$12,097
• Taxable loss: −$15,179
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,643
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,059/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $16,630–$49,890 screening

This two-story home is in good condition with a contemporary design and modern finishes. It is move-in ready and has the potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances (if needed) — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale Flooring (if needed) — Upgrading flooring can improve the home's overall appearance and value. ↑
• Both Lighting (if needed) — Improved lighting can make the home more inviting and increase its value. ↑
• Both Window treatments (if needed) — Window treatments can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping (if needed) — Landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary James Tillman Elementary Magnet School D FL #1,088/2,144 Nat'l #12,785/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Palmetto

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #5695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 56,208
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price reported (445540)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home, Trenton planSpec inventory, active listing
• Exterior features: Address: 12505 Oak Pick Ter, Palmetto FL 34221

Interior

• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec new-construction home (Trenton plan)Living area of 3326 (reported)