415 Warford Ave · Ferguson, MO 63135

$70,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1948 6,655 sqft lot $83/sqft · 6% above area Est $66k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• ARV discount +4.6/15.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nice brick home located on a quiet street just minutes from the January-Wabash Lake and Park. This home is rented to a tenant who is on a month-to-month lease, paying $815/month. That rate is well below market. The Sec 8 FMR is $1290/month so there's lots of room for increased income. Interested in a package of homes? This seller is also selling MLS# 2607390 and 2607384 if you would like to them to your contract. The home is being sold as-is with seller to do no inspections, repairs or credits. Showings with an accepted contract. Please do not disturb the tenant or walk the property.

Key facts

• 6,655 sq ft lot
• Built 1948
• Listed 35 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Back yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $518 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 9.2% in Ferguson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#586 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $70k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $67,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.73%
• DSCR: 2.41
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $65,771
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: 6.43%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
308 Henquin Dr	0.31mi	2/1.0	861 (+2%)	1mo	$80,000	$93	76
222 Henquin Dr	0.32mi	2/1.0	816 (-3%)	1mo	$115,000	$141	75
8027 Aline Ave	0.50mi	2/1.0	852 (+1%)	6mo	$45,000	$53	65
826 Walters Dr	0.26mi	2/1.0	925 (+10%)	2mo	$60,000	$65	65
221 S Harvey Ave	0.67mi	2/1.0	864 (+3%)	3mo	$135,000	$156	58
619 Carson Rd	0.44mi	1/1.0 (-1)	901 (+7%)	5mo	$75,000	$83	54
838 Abston Ave	0.32mi	2/1.0	959 (+14%)	6mo	$85,000	$89	53
115 Lawrence Ave	0.59mi	2/1.5	936 (+11%)	0mo	$64,500	$69	51
405 Estelle Ave	0.67mi	2/1.0	775 (-8%)	1mo	$79,900	$103	51
8235 Davenport Dr	0.73mi	1/1.0 (-1)	792 (-6%)	5mo	$63,000	$80	43
406 Tiffin Ave	0.63mi	2/1.0	944 (+12%)	5mo	$105,000	$111	42
6625 Thurston Ave	0.67mi	2/1.0	939 (+12%)	4mo	$74,900	$80	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $28,223
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.95×
• Total profit: $96,938
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63135

• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,241 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $788/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $518

Break-even live

Break-even rent $585

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
222 Henquin Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	816	$1,050	$1.29	17d	1	0.30mi
60 Mayme Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,285	$1.34	43d	1	0.39mi
601 Carson Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	743	$950	$1.28	23d	1	0.40mi
6156 Wulff Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	960	$1,425	$1.48	10d	1	0.40mi
910 Disco Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	924	$1,260	$1.36	16d	1	0.45mi
6132 Eaton Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,125	$1.42	23d	1	0.52mi
6333 Peurifoy Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	840	$1,295	$1.54	23d	1	0.60mi
6625 Thurston Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	939	$1,400	$1.49	23d	1	0.68mi
6625 Thurston Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	939	$1,300	$1.38	43d	1	0.68mi
6044 Cascade Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	984	$1,150	$1.17	7d	1	0.69mi
401 Millman Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,450	$1.44	16d	1	0.74mi
8306 Whitewater Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	792	$1,195	$1.51	7d	1	0.78mi
246 Louisa Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1036	$1,600	$1.54	43d	1	0.79mi
222 Randolph Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	964	$1,400	$1.45	7d	1	0.86mi
360 S Harvey Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	936	$925	$0.99	43d	1	0.89mi
24 Vierling Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	850	$1,290	$1.52	7d	1	0.90mi
6214 Jefferson Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	816	$1,195	$1.46	23d	1	0.90mi
415 Ames Pl Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,400	$1.72	43d	1	0.91mi
334 Mueller Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	713	$825	$1.16	23d	1	0.92mi
419 S Florissant Rd Ferguson, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	43d	1	0.92mi
519 Graf Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	887	$1,297	$1.46	20d	1	0.94mi
650 Robert Ave Ferguson, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,224	$1.50	43d	1	0.94mi
307 Coppinger Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,095	$1.14	17d	1	0.97mi
6334 Washington Ave Berkeley, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,100	$1.27	4d	1	0.98mi
6336 Washington Ave Berkeley, MO	2.0	1.0	720	$1,175	$1.63	43d	1	0.98mi
6315 Washington Ave Berkeley, MO	2.0	1.0	739	$1,175	$1.59	16d	1	0.99mi
110 Paul Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	875	$1,050	$1.20	7d	1	1.01mi
422 Plaza Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	7d	1	1.03mi
223 Wiegel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,560	$1.81	12d	1	1.06mi
12 Lee Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	832	$1,080	$1.30	7d	1	1.06mi
338 La Motte Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	904	$1,150	$1.27	43d	1	1.06mi
617 Tesmore Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	877	$1,200	$1.37	43d	1	1.07mi
709 Suburban Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	975	$1,400	$1.44	43d	1	1.08mi
450 S Dade Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	23d	1	1.09mi
153 Bascom Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1076	$1,195	$1.11	19d	1	1.09mi
6234 Hancock Ave Berkeley, MO	2.0	1.0	846	$1,050	$1.24	43d	1	1.11mi
46 Bascom Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	932	$1,175	$1.26	43d	1	1.11mi
6042 Hancock Ave Berkeley, MO	3.0	1.0	1041	$1,495	$1.44	23d	1	1.13mi
920 Hutton Pl Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,195	$1.31	43d	1	1.13mi
502 Averill Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	43d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $70,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $70,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $70,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $70,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $70,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $70,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-05-05
   listed $72,500 Active 590-char remark
10. 2026-05-04
    historical $72,500 590-char remark
11. 2025-09-03
    listed $105,000 Active
12. 2019-03-28
    soldstatus $37,500
13. 2018-11-07
    soldstatus
14. 2018-11-07
    soldstatus $18,500
15. 2009-03-17
    soldstatus
16. 2007-09-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $788 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $788 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,888
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$788
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,191
• − Management: −$1,191
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $5,410
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,298
• After-tax cash flow: $4,920/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferguson-Florissant R-II
• NCES district ID: 2912010
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,610
• Composite: 11.96/100
• National rank: #9666
• State rank: #311 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ferguson

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #586
• US rank: #20809

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ferguson, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,381
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,381
• Household income: $52,328
• Rent vs Own: 45.8% rent · 54.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 957.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 66% White 28% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.56%
• Current HPI: 138.6781
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.03%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+278.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $70,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Listed $72,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-03 Listed $105,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $37,500 Public Records
• 2018-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $18,500 Public Records
• 2018-11-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-03-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-09-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-5.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $788 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.