2550 S Ellsworth Rd #50 · Mesa, AZ 85209

$179,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,306 sqft · Manufactured · 56 Days on market

Built 1998 Good condition $137/sqft · 19% above area Est $150k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Las Palmas Grand is Mesa's premier 55+ active resort community where every day feels like a vacation. This beautifully upgraded Del Mar home is move-in ready, featuring a new kitchen and roof in 2020. Light and bright, cool colors throughout. Features include a craft room attached to the primary bedroom, a climate-controlled bonus room, and an ample storage area. This 24-hour guarded community delivers resort-style living: sparkling pool, spa, tennis, pickleball, bocce ball, shuffleboard, billiards, fitness center, ballroom, library, arts and crafts studio, and a plethora of clubs and activities. All the amenities and lifestyle you deserve!

Key facts

• Tennis
• New kitchen
• Spa

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN
• CLIMATE CONTROLLED BONUS ROOM
• AMPLE STORAGE AREA
• SPA
• TENNIS
• PICKLEBALL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community amenities include pool, heated community spa, pickleball and tennis courts, fitness center, community media room, transportation services
• Financial info: Monthly land lease amount: $889
• HOA & community: Association with monthly fee; Association covers grounds maintenance and street maintenance; Land-lease community with monthly land lease payment

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Security: Gated community with guarded entry; On-site security guard
• Utilities: Private water company; Sewer connected (private sewer); 220 volts available in kitchen
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership; Asphalt road access
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Steel frame construction; Composition roof; Building area per architect
• Exterior features: Storage; East/West exposure; Sprinklers front and rear with auto timers; Gravel/stone front and back; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; 220-volt outlet in kitchen; Kitchen island; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Eat-in kitchen; No interior steps; Kitchen island; Master bedroom with 3/4 bath; Dual-pane windows; Dishwasher
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $373 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $174k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.4% in Mesa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#6 in AZ, #2,034 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D.
• Gilbert Unified District (4239) (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #38 of 249 in AZ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 165 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,630 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.93%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,188
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: 19.18%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2550 S Ellsworth Rd #411	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,214 (-7%)	13mo	$200,000	$165	72
2550 S Ellsworth Rd #219	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,146 (-12%)	13mo	$95,000	$83	63
8865 E Baseline Rd #344	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-4%)	2mo	$180,000	$144	61
2550 S Ellsworth Rd #432	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,180 (-10%)	13mo	$150,000	$127	59
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 14 B	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,354 (+4%)	15mo	$129,000	$95	58
2550 S Ellsworth Rd #364	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,390 (+6%)	19mo	$190,000	$137	56
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 50B	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+8%)	7mo	$238,000	$170	53
2550 S Ellsworth Rd #664	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,493 (+14%)	15mo	$190,000	$127	51
8865 E Baseline Rd #138	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,352 (+4%)	16mo	$225,000	$166	51
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 160B	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+12%)	9mo	$345,000	$237	44
8865 E Baseline Rd #128	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+8%)	9mo	$240,000	$171	44
8865 E Baseline Rd #554	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,447 (+11%)	14mo	$285,000	$197	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.44% appreciation · 0.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $26,108
• Equity at exit: $65,243

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $72,719
• Equity at exit: $89,994

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85209

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,038 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$224 /mo · $2,685/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $373

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,566

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2821 S Skyline #157 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.5	1438	$2,200	$1.53	4d	1	0.30mi
9233 E Neville Ave Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1145	$1,575	$1.37	24d	1	0.33mi
9233 E Neville Ave Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1142	$1,575	$1.38	15d	3	0.33mi
8915 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	971	$1,390	$1.43	3d	11	0.34mi
8915 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,390	$1.32	24d	1	0.34mi
2821 S Skyline #127 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.5	1438	$2,350	$1.63	44d	1	0.36mi
9233 E Neville Ave #1088 Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1057	$1,850	$1.75	5d	1	0.39mi
8918 E Oro Cir Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1566	$2,100	$1.34	17d	1	0.45mi
8918 E Oro Cir Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1566	$2,180	$1.39	44d	1	0.45mi
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 94B Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	924	$3,702	$4.01	24d	1	0.49mi
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 3B Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	976	$1,606	$1.65	15d	1	0.49mi
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 101B Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	924	$1,555	$1.68	44d	1	0.49mi
2223 S Gordon Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1278	$2,250	$1.76	24d	1	0.54mi
8928 E Pampa Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1723	$10,500	$6.09	24d	1	0.57mi
9322 E Lobo Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1691	$2,200	$1.30	22d	1	0.58mi
8915 E Pampa Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1700	$1,900	$1.12	44d	1	0.59mi
8843 E Pampa Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1357	$2,050	$1.51	5d	1	0.60mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #1028 Mesa, AZ	2.0	1.0	1028	$1,500	$1.46	44d	1	0.62mi
8527 E Osage Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1871	$2,200	$1.18	44d	1	0.63mi
3121 S Mandy Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1357	$2,190	$1.61	4d	1	0.64mi
8852 E Plana Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,995	$1.47	44d	1	0.65mi
9231 E Lindner Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,295	$1.46	5d	1	0.66mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #555 Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1387	$3,900	$2.81	20d	1	0.67mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #555 Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1387	$3,900	$2.81	24d	1	0.67mi
8528 E Desert Ln Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1665	$2,280	$1.37	5d	1	0.69mi
8433 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,772	$2.96	1d	1	0.74mi
8616 E Posada Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1792	$2,289	$1.28	4d	1	0.74mi
8616 E Posada Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1792	$2,309	$1.29	11d	1	0.74mi
8720 E Knowles Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1692	$1,995	$1.18	3d	1	0.81mi
8462 E Pampa Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1473	$1,995	$1.35	44d	1	0.82mi
9335 E Baseline Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1162	$1,717	$1.48	2d	14	0.86mi
8438 E Keats Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1363	$2,300	$1.69	24d	1	0.94mi
8240 E Obispo Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1655	$2,200	$1.33	18d	1	0.95mi
2024 S Baldwin #40 Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1384	$1,800	$1.30	24d	1	1.02mi
2024 S Baldwin #154 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.5	1132	$1,689	$1.49	5d	1	1.03mi
2024 S Baldwin #154 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,689	$1.41	17d	1	1.03mi
2024 S Baldwin #114 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.5	1148	$1,700	$1.48	11d	1	1.08mi
2024 S Baldwin #114 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.5	1148	$1,700	$1.48	24d	1	1.08mi
2311 S Farnsworth Dr #85 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1332	$3,300	$2.48	4d	1	1.20mi
9909 E Onza Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,165	$1.55	18d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $179,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-04-23
    listed $179,000 Active 656-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,459
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,685
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,957
• − Management: −$1,957
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $1,731
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$416
• After-tax cash flow: $4,063/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready home in Las Palmas Grand Mesa features a new kitchen and roof, and is in good condition with potential for further enhancements to boost its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and resale value.
• Both Upgrading flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality.
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and marketability.
• Both Upgrading lighting fixtures — Improves ambiance and energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and resale value. ↑
• Both Upgrading flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and marketability. ↑
• Both Upgrading lighting fixtures — Improves ambiance and energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilbert Unified District (4239)
• NCES district ID: 0403400
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,715
• Composite: 45.55/100
• National rank: #2600
• State rank: #38 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Mesa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2034

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime D Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesa, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 555,266
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 43,150
• Household income: $84,432
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 972.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.44%
• Current HPI: 277.6198
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $179,000 ARMLS