47 Malaga Way · Hot Springs Village, AR 71909

$199,970

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,548 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 168 Days on market

Built 1974 0.26 ac lot $129/sqft · 9% below area Est $220k · 9% under $118/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy Hot Springs Village home featuring a rustic look in a quiet neighborhood setting. Features a fenced backyard with a deck for relaxing or entertaining friends and family. This place feels like home the minute you walk through the door. Roof last replaced in 2017 and HVAC system replaced in 2014.

Key facts

• Deck
• Rustic look
• Quiet neighborhood

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• DECK
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• RUSTIC LOOK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-490/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.6% in Hot Springs Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#76 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Jessieville School District (rural): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #60 of 238 in AR (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jessieville Elementary School (math 57% / reading 42%, grade D, #93 of 454 statewide, top 23%, 368 students, 99% FRL); Jessieville Middle School (math 38% / reading 48%, grade D-, #70 of 201 statewide, top 38%, 205 students, 98% FRL); Jessieville High School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #164 of 292 statewide, top 61%, 273 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 70% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 770 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $118k; list at $200k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,096 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.87%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $219,839
• List price: $199,970
• Delta: -9.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17 La Canada Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,524 (-2%)	1mo	$275,000	$180	86
85 Malaga Way	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,530 (-1%)	11mo	$222,000	$145	79
75 Malaga Way	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (+5%)	5mo	$223,000	$138	72
1 Bahia Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,726 (+12%)	6mo	$220,000	$127	68
1 Badalona Cir	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,584 (+2%)	10mo	$160,000	$101	66
22 Vilafranca Ln	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,497 (-3%)	7mo	$255,000	$170	65
4 Bejar Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,460 (-6%)	9mo	$195,000	$134	62
31 Barcelona Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+3%)	9mo	$250,000	$156	57
30 Segovia Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-9%)	11mo	$235,000	$167	56
29 Salobrena Way	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,662 (+7%)	5mo	$157,000	$94	47
8 Larraga Way	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,460 (-6%)	10mo	$224,500	$154	47
6 Las Navas Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,766 (+14%)	9mo	$165,000	$93	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-34,997
• Equity at exit: $29,816

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-33,793
• Equity at exit: $17,290

Cash invested: $55,992 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71909

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 770
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,661 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,236/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$118
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $-41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,713

Max offer price $192,758

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $72	-5% $16	+0% $-41	+5% $-97	+10% $-154
Rent	-10% $-172	-5% $-106	+0% $-41	+5% $25	+10% $90
Rate	-1.0pp $60	-0.5pp $10	base $-41	+0.5pp $-93	+1.0pp $-145

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,992
• Closing costs: $5,999
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16 Malaga Cir Hot Springs Village, AR	2.0	2.0	1694	$1,850	$1.09	16d	1	0.28mi
120 Emperado Way Hot Springs Village, AR	3.0	1.5	1296	$1,300	$1.00	25d	1	0.78mi
10 Frontera Cir Hot Springs Village, AR	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,385	$0.80	16d	1	0.84mi
6 Tomino Way Hot Springs Village, AR	3.0	1.5	1549	$1,350	$0.87	16d	1	0.84mi
29 Frontera Cir Hot Springs Village, AR	2.0	2.0	1179	$1,600	$1.36	25d	1	0.87mi
2 Dulzura Ln Hot Springs Village, AR	2.0	1.5	1120	$1,200	$1.07	46d	1	0.94mi
16 Dulzura Ln Unit 1 Hot Springs, AR	2.0	1.5	1120	$1,100	$0.98	16d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $118 · $1,416/yr

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,970 Active 168 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,970 Active 165 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,970 Active 164 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,970 Active 163 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,970 Active 162 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,970 Active 160 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,970 Active 157 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,970 Active 156 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,970 Active 155 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,970 Active 154 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,970 Active 151 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,970 Active 150 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,970 Active 149 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,970 Active 148 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,970 Active 147 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,970 Active 146 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    price $199,970 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Cozy Hot Springs Village home featuring a rustic look in a quiet neighborhood setting. Features a fenced backyard with a deck for relaxing or entertaining friends and family. This place feels like home the minute you walk through the door. Roof last replaced in 2017 and HVAC system replaced in 2014.

18. 2026-03-26
    price $209,000 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Cozy Hot Springs Village home featuring a rustic look in a quiet neighborhood setting. Features a fenced backyard with a deck for relaxing or entertaining friends and family. This place feels like home the minute you walk through the door. Roof last replaced in 2017 and HVAC system replaced in 2014.

19. 2026-01-04
    listed $225,000 New Listing 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Cozy Hot Springs Village home featuring a rustic look in a quiet neighborhood setting. Features a fenced backyard with a deck for relaxing or entertaining friends and family. This place feels like home the minute you walk through the door. Roof last replaced in 2017 and HVAC system replaced in 2014.

20. 2022-04-20
    soldstatus $117,500
21. 2020-10-02
    soldstatus $81,225
22. 2020-09-30
    soldstatus $81,225 223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    Nice 2 BR 2 Bath home in area of like homes. It features a large deck, dining room, large kitchen and family room with a fireplace. It is located in a gated community of golfing, lakes, trails, swimming pool and Club House.

23. 2020-09-04
    soldstatus $81,225 Sold
24. 2020-07-23
    status Under Contract
25. 2020-07-17
    status Back on Market
26. 2020-07-08
    status Under Contract
27. 2020-06-05
    status Back on Market
28. 2020-06-05
    historical
29. 2020-05-03
    status Under Contract
30. 2020-05-02
    price $81,225
31. 2020-04-08
    price $85,500
32. 2020-01-02
    listed $81,225 223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    Nice 2 BR 2 Bath home in area of like homes. It features a large deck, dining room, large kitchen and family room with a fireplace. It is located in a gated community of golfing, lakes, trails, swimming pool and Club House.

33. 2020-01-01
    listed $92,000 New Listing
34. 1999-05-11
    soldstatus $74,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,236 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,280 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$44/yr (+$4/mo · 3.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,932
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,236
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,595
• − Management: −$1,595
• − HOA: −$1,416
• − Depreciation: −$5,817
• Taxable loss: −$3,928
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$943
• After-tax cash flow: $453/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jessieville School District
• NCES district ID: 0507920
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,066
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5003
• State rank: #60 of 238 in AR

Livability — Hot Springs Village

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #8970

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hot Springs Village, AR
• County: Saline County · 77,216 people
• City population: 18,449
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 18,449
• Household income: $75,433
• Rent vs Own: 12.0% rent · 88.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 207.0

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.00%
• Current HPI: 195.9499
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+170.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $199,970 CARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $209,000 CARMLS
• 2026-01-04 Listed $225,000 CARMLS
• 2022-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $117,500 Public Records
• 2020-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $81,225 Public Records
• 2020-09-30 Sold (MLS) $81,225 HSBOR
• 2020-09-04 Sold (MLS) $81,225 CARMLS
• 2020-07-23 Pending — CARMLS
• 2020-07-17 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2020-07-08 Pending — CARMLS
• 2020-06-05 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2020-06-05 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2020-05-03 Pending — CARMLS
• 2020-05-02 Price Changed $81,225 CARMLS
• 2020-04-08 Price Changed $85,500 CARMLS
• 2020-01-02 Listed $81,225 HSBOR
• 2020-01-01 Listed $92,000 CARMLS
• 1999-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,236 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.