The Robin Plan · Tomball, TX 77354

$281,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,212 sqft · SingleFamily · 953 Days on market

↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The modern Robin plan features 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms with a huge game room on the second floor. The entryway leads past the staircase with a smartly positioned powder bathroom tucked underneath, into the kitchen/dining room opening up to the large yet cozy family room. The stairs lead to a giant game room on the second floor with a hallway leading to the three secondary bedrooms. Customize the Robin plan with an additional second story bedroom with a private bathroom and an optional spacious media room for movie nights. Amplify the master suite by opting for the primary bath upgrade which features a separate garden tub and shower. Choose from three different sized covered patios to meet your outdoor needs.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 952 days

🏗️ New construction. The $281,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $308,361.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $282k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-371 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.7% in Tomball — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 953 days — a 12% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $222,787 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 953 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.16%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $308,361
• List price: $281,990
• Delta: -8.55%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27274 Axis Deer Trl	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,409 (+9%)	3mo	$352,495	$146	75
27237 Crevalle Jack Ln	0.28mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,100 (-5%)	2mo	$275,000	$131	72
27146 Grey Fox Run	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,948 (-12%)	4mo	$299,000	$153	71
27072 Badger Way	0.11mi	4/3.5	2,470 (+12%)	6mo	$307,370	$124	67
27318 Axis Deer Trl	0.24mi	4/3.5	2,470 (+12%)	0mo	$329,990	$134	65
27286 Axis Deer Trl	0.19mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,988 (-10%)	6mo	$300,142	$151	64
27310 Axis Deer Trl	0.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,988 (-10%)	6mo	$281,231	$141	62
10216 Longhorn Ridge Ct	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,988 (-10%)	4mo	$320,142	$161	61
27207 Mockingbird Terrace Ln	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,988 (-10%)	3mo	$317,254	$160	60
10236 Badger Run Ln	0.43mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,061 (-7%)	6mo	$289,990	$141	59
26707 Apache Trl	0.58mi	4/3.0	2,450 (+11%)	2mo	$494,900	$202	51
9910 Caddo Trl	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,533 (+14%)	2mo	$525,000	$207	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $138,495
• Equity at exit: $277,796

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.82×
• Total profit: $415,875
• Equity at exit: $599,078

Cash invested: $86,341 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,228 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,617
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$385 /mo · $4,625/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $-371

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,697

Max offer price $254,677

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,090
• Closing costs: $9,251
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9829 Glen Brook Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1637	$1,999	$1.22	2d	1	0.70mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $281,990 Active 953 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $281,990 Active 952 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $281,990 Active 951 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $281,990 Active 950 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $281,990 Active 948 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $281,990 Active 944 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $281,990 Active 943 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $281,990 Active 942 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $281,990 Active 939 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $281,990 Active 938 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $281,990 Active 937 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $281,990 Active 936 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $281,990 Active 935 DOM
14. 2024-04-27
    price $281,990 722-char remark

    Show marketing remark (722 chars)

    The modern Robin plan features 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms with a huge game room on the second floor. The entryway leads past the staircase with a smartly positioned powder bathroom tucked underneath, into the kitchen/dining room opening up to the large yet cozy family room. The stairs lead to a giant game room on the second floor with a hallway leading to the three secondary bedrooms. Customize the Robin plan with an additional second story bedroom with a private bathroom and an optional spacious media room for movie nights. Amplify the master suite by opting for the primary bath upgrade which features a separate garden tub and shower. Choose from three different sized covered patios to meet your outdoor needs.

15. 2024-04-01
    price $277,990 722-char remark

    Show marketing remark (722 chars)

    The modern Robin plan features 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms with a huge game room on the second floor. The entryway leads past the staircase with a smartly positioned powder bathroom tucked underneath, into the kitchen/dining room opening up to the large yet cozy family room. The stairs lead to a giant game room on the second floor with a hallway leading to the three secondary bedrooms. Customize the Robin plan with an additional second story bedroom with a private bathroom and an optional spacious media room for movie nights. Amplify the master suite by opting for the primary bath upgrade which features a separate garden tub and shower. Choose from three different sized covered patios to meet your outdoor needs.

16. 2024-03-04
    price $274,990 722-char remark

    Show marketing remark (722 chars)

    The modern Robin plan features 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms with a huge game room on the second floor. The entryway leads past the staircase with a smartly positioned powder bathroom tucked underneath, into the kitchen/dining room opening up to the large yet cozy family room. The stairs lead to a giant game room on the second floor with a hallway leading to the three secondary bedrooms. Customize the Robin plan with an additional second story bedroom with a private bathroom and an optional spacious media room for movie nights. Amplify the master suite by opting for the primary bath upgrade which features a separate garden tub and shower. Choose from three different sized covered patios to meet your outdoor needs.

17. 2024-02-01
    price $272,990 722-char remark

    Show marketing remark (722 chars)

    The modern Robin plan features 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms with a huge game room on the second floor. The entryway leads past the staircase with a smartly positioned powder bathroom tucked underneath, into the kitchen/dining room opening up to the large yet cozy family room. The stairs lead to a giant game room on the second floor with a hallway leading to the three secondary bedrooms. Customize the Robin plan with an additional second story bedroom with a private bathroom and an optional spacious media room for movie nights. Amplify the master suite by opting for the primary bath upgrade which features a separate garden tub and shower. Choose from three different sized covered patios to meet your outdoor needs.

18. 2023-11-20
    price $269,990 722-char remark

    Show marketing remark (722 chars)

    The modern Robin plan features 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms with a huge game room on the second floor. The entryway leads past the staircase with a smartly positioned powder bathroom tucked underneath, into the kitchen/dining room opening up to the large yet cozy family room. The stairs lead to a giant game room on the second floor with a hallway leading to the three secondary bedrooms. Customize the Robin plan with an additional second story bedroom with a private bathroom and an optional spacious media room for movie nights. Amplify the master suite by opting for the primary bath upgrade which features a separate garden tub and shower. Choose from three different sized covered patios to meet your outdoor needs.

19. 2023-11-08
    listed $289,990 Active 722-char remark

    Show marketing remark (722 chars)

    The modern Robin plan features 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms with a huge game room on the second floor. The entryway leads past the staircase with a smartly positioned powder bathroom tucked underneath, into the kitchen/dining room opening up to the large yet cozy family room. The stairs lead to a giant game room on the second floor with a hallway leading to the three secondary bedrooms. Customize the Robin plan with an additional second story bedroom with a private bathroom and an optional spacious media room for movie nights. Amplify the master suite by opting for the primary bath upgrade which features a separate garden tub and shower. Choose from three different sized covered patios to meet your outdoor needs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,734
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,273
• − Property taxes: −$4,625
• − Insurance: −$1,542
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,139
• − Management: −$2,139
• − Depreciation: −$8,971
• Taxable loss: −$9,954
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,389
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,063/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tomball

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #4239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 113,991
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2024-04-27 Price Changed $281,990 Zillow
• 2024-04-01 Price Changed $277,990 Zillow
• 2024-03-04 Price Changed $274,990 Zillow
• 2024-02-01 Price Changed $272,990 Zillow
• 2023-11-20 Price Changed $269,990 Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $289,990 Zillow