4521 S 3rd St · Louisville, KY 40214

$220,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,322 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 1925 6,752 sqft lot Est $272k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 6,752 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1925

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $373 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $217k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 243 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,228/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 2054% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $186k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,700 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.27%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $271,674
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4516 S 2nd St	0.04mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,534 (+9%)	1mo	$285,600	$113	75
124 E Wellington Ave	0.37mi	4/2.0	2,300 (-1%)	11mo	$269,000	$117	72
4503 Southern Pkwy	0.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,404 (+4%)	15mo	$340,000	$141	70
4332 S 3rd St	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,242 (-3%)	11mo	$253,000	$113	64
4507 Meridale Ave	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,545 (+10%)	14mo	$309,000	$121	61
4127 S 2nd St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,300 (-1%)	8mo	$250,000	$109	61
4614 Southcrest Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0	2,126 (-8%)	10mo	$225,000	$106	56
4618 S 6th St	0.41mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,408 (+4%)	16mo	$274,000	$114	54
4705 Southern Pkwy	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,160 (-7%)	12mo	$400,000	$185	52
4410 Allmond Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,002 (-14%)	12mo	$223,000	$111	46
4628 Southcrest Dr	0.52mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,152 (-7%)	16mo	$349,000	$162	41
910 W Ashland Ave	0.64mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,148 (-8%)	13mo	$259,900	$121	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-14,392
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $7,999
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40214

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 243
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,228 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,701/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $373

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,756

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4513 S 6th St Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1581	$2,650	$1.68	23d	1	0.26mi
3830 Southern Pkwy Louisville, KY	4.0	2.5	3332	$2,100	$0.63	15d	1	0.81mi
3102 Grant Ave Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,595	$1.00	23d	1	0.98mi
519 Forum Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1693	$1,600	$0.95	23d	1	1.04mi
4010 Taylor Blvd Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1612	$3,000	$1.86	15d	1	1.06mi
2718 S 3rd St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,800	$1.40	11d	1	1.48mi
2711 S 3rd St Unit 1 Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,400	$1.33	11d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $220,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    status $225,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-04-13
    status Pending
12. 2026-04-07
    listed $225,000 Active
13. 2026-04-03
    historical
14. 2026-03-25
    price $225,500
15. 2026-03-25
    status Active
16. 2026-01-30
    historical Active Under Contract
17. 2025-12-25
    price $215,500
18. 2025-12-01
    listed $221,500 Active
19. 2025-11-21
    historical
20. 2025-11-12
    price $220,500
21. 2025-10-18
    price $225,500
22. 2025-10-17
    price $226,500
23. 2025-10-02
    price $231,500
24. 2025-09-06
    price $233,500
25. 2025-08-29
    price $234,500
26. 2025-08-20
    price $239,500
27. 2025-08-17
    listed $245,000 Active
28. 2025-08-05
    soldstatus $186,000
29. 2011-11-29
    soldstatus $32,011
30. 2011-11-01
    listed $34,900
31. 2011-09-18
    historical
32. 2011-06-20
    listed $43,900
33. 2000-04-10
    soldstatus $97,000
34. 2000-03-01
    listed $99,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,701 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,892 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$191/yr (+$16/mo · 11.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,739
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$1,701
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,139
• − Management: −$2,139
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable income: $936
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$225
• After-tax cash flow: $4,253/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 45,405
• Household income: $54,931
• Rent vs Own: 45.6% rent · 54.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2054.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 12% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Philippines
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 12% Vietnamese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -235.43%
• Current HPI: 237.4062
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.89%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+126.1% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $225,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-03 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $225,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-25 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-01-30 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-12-25 Price Changed $215,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-12-01 Listed $221,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-11-21 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $220,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-10-18 Price Changed $225,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $226,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $231,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-09-06 Price Changed $233,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $234,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $239,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-08-17 Listed $245,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $186,000 Public Records
• 2011-11-29 Sold (MLS) $32,011 Metro Search MLS
• 2011-11-01 Listed $34,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2011-09-18 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2011-06-20 Listed $43,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2000-04-10 Sold (MLS) $97,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2000-03-01 Listed $99,500 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,701 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.