1507 E 21st St · Pawhuska, OK 74056

$80,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,377 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1972

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent investment opportunity in Pawhuska. Located on a corner lot, this property is ready for a new owner. Property is in need of TLC.

Key facts

• Range and dryer stay
• Corner lot
• Converted carport

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• CORNER LOT
• CONVERTED CARPORT
• RANGE AND DRYER STAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $412 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#37 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Pawhuska (town): math 9% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #248 of 270 in OK (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 89 units permitted in Osage County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Osage County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $11k; list at $80k implies a 627% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,600 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.07%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $180,387
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2113 Mckenzie Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,323 (-4%)	20mo	$161,500	$122	52
1200 Melody Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-3%)	22mo	$175,000	$131	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.7% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $47,895
• Equity at exit: $48,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.39×
• Total profit: $120,704
• Equity at exit: $87,182

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74056

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,151 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $532/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $412

Break-even live

Break-even rent $629

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $457	-5% $435	+0% $412	+5% $389	+10% $367
Rent	-10% $321	-5% $366	+0% $412	+5% $457	+10% $503
Rate	-1.0pp $452	-0.5pp $432	base $412	+0.5pp $391	+1.0pp $370

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $80,000 Under Contract 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $80,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $80,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $80,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $80,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $80,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $80,000 Active
16. 2018-05-24
    soldstatus $11,000 Closed 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity in Pawhuska. Located on a corner lot, this property is ready for a new owner. Property is in need of TLC.

17. 2018-04-27
    status Pending 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity in Pawhuska. Located on a corner lot, this property is ready for a new owner. Property is in need of TLC.

18. 2018-04-13
    historical
19. 2018-04-12
    listed $18,900 Active 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity in Pawhuska. Located on a corner lot, this property is ready for a new owner. Property is in need of TLC.

20. 2018-04-11
    listed $19,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $532 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $720 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$188/yr (+$16/mo · 35.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,809
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$532
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,105
• − Management: −$1,105
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $3,859
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$926
• After-tax cash flow: $4,017/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pawhuska
• NCES district ID: 4023580
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 13% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,773
• Composite: 8.98/100
• National rank: #9883
• State rank: #248 of 270 in OK

Livability — Pawhuska

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #7514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pawhuska, OK
• Population (ZIP): 4,874

Population outlook (Osage County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,950 people
• By 2030: 48,936 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 47,826 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 45,781 · -6.5%
• By 2075: 41,140 · -16.0%
• By 2100: 32,796 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Native American 27% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Osage

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.4) · D 28.4% · R 69.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.7pp · 2024: -41.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.4 2020: R+39.5 2016: R+36.8 2012: R+25.2 2008: R+23.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.70%
• Current HPI: 296.6482
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+302.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $80,000 FSBO.com
• 2018-05-24 Sold (MLS) $11,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2018-04-27 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2018-04-13 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2018-04-12 Listed $18,900 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2018-04-11 Listed $19,900 MLS Technology, Inc.

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $532 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.