355 Grandview Ave · Black Point-Green Point, CA 94945

$385,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,915 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 115 Days on market

Built 1935 10,001 sqft lot $202/sqft · 65% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great project home in Novato, CA. Property has some great views of the bay and woods. Property is boarded up and could be red tagged with violations. Buyers check with City, County, Zoning, Tax, and other records to their satisfaction. AS-IS SALE property. Any violations will be at buyer's expense.

Key facts

• Views of the bay
• Views of woods
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• VIEWS OF THE BAY
• VIEWS OF WOODS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $386k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $514 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $386k).
• Recommended offer: $351k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Novato Unified (suburban): math 38% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #160 of 517 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 149 units permitted in Marin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,569/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($108k/yr) (locally 357% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marin County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($351k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $64k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $351,169 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.70%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,094,748
• List price: $385,900
• Delta: -64.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
50 Oak Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,919 (+0%)	5mo	$820,000	$427	83
352 Laurel Ave	0.15mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,965 (+3%)	8mo	$1,150,000	$585	71
54 Manzanita Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,774 (-7%)	1mo	$845,000	$476	70
327 Grandview Ave	0.08mi	3/2.5	2,080 (+9%)	14mo	$950,000	$457	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-29,492
• Equity at exit: $57,539

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $17,786
• Equity at exit: $33,366

Cash invested: $108,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94945

• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,569 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,024
• Tax from tax record: −$912 /mo · $10,940/yr
• Insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$960
• Net cashflow: $514

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,919

Max offer price $385,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,475
• Closing costs: $11,577
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $385,900 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $385,900 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $385,900 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $385,900 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $385,900 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $385,900 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $385,900 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $385,900 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $385,900 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $385,900 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $385,900 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $385,900 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $385,900 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $385,900 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    price $406,200 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Great project home in Novato, CA. Property has some great views of the bay and woods. Property is boarded up and could be red tagged with violations. Buyers check with City, County, Zoning, Tax, and other records to their satisfaction. AS-IS SALE property. Any violations will be at buyer's expense.

16. 2026-03-26
    price $427,500 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Great project home in Novato, CA. Property has some great views of the bay and woods. Property is boarded up and could be red tagged with violations. Buyers check with City, County, Zoning, Tax, and other records to their satisfaction. AS-IS SALE property. Any violations will be at buyer's expense.

17. 2026-02-23
    listed $450,000 Active 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Great project home in Novato, CA. Property has some great views of the bay and woods. Property is boarded up and could be red tagged with violations. Buyers check with City, County, Zoning, Tax, and other records to their satisfaction. AS-IS SALE property. Any violations will be at buyer's expense.

18. 2025-07-25
    price $549,000
19. 2025-07-25
    listed $649,000 Active
20. 2022-08-09
    price $799,000
21. 2022-07-24
    price $840,000
22. 2005-03-17
    soldstatus $645,000
23. 2003-03-06
    soldstatus $505,000
24. 1986-11-19
    soldstatus $140,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,940 · $912/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,940 · $912/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥88°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,830
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,616
• − Property taxes: −$10,940
• − Insurance: −$1,930
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,386
• − Management: −$4,386
• − Depreciation: −$11,226
• Taxable income: $346
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$83
• After-tax cash flow: $6,079/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Novato Unified
• NCES district ID: 0627720
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $84,396
• Composite: 41.06/100
• National rank: #3576
• State rank: #160 of 517 in CA

Livability — Black Point-Green Point

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Black Point-Green Point, CA
• County: Marin County · 243,328 people
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,635
• Household income: $107,790
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 357.0

Population outlook (Marin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 276,379 people
• By 2030: 282,942 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 292,937 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 300,449 · +8.7%
• By 2075: 316,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 303,948 · +10.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Asian 8% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+63.9) · D 80.6% · R 16.7% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.2pp toward D · 2008: 57.7pp · 2024: 63.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+63.9 2020: D+66.5 2016: D+62.9 2012: D+50.5 2008: D+57.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -725.83%
• Current HPI: 266.2049
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+190.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $406,200 San Francisco MLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $427,500 San Francisco MLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $450,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $549,000 BAREIS
• 2025-07-25 Listed $649,000 BAREIS
• 2022-08-09 Price Changed $799,000 BAREIS
• 2022-07-24 Price Changed $840,000 BAREIS
• 2005-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $645,000 Public Records
• 2003-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $505,000 Public Records
• 1986-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,940 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.