301 E Ave Ave · Ballinger, TX 76821

$125,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,674 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 404 Days on market

Built 1940 Est $162k · 23% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Whop, whoooop !!! Calling all investors. .. if you are in the market for your next rental property or fix and flip look no further. Home offers tons of potential. Bring your imagination and start your next venture here.

Key facts

• 3 garage spots
• Built 1940
• Listed 404 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $129 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.9% in Ballinger — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#623 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Ballinger ISD (town): math 33% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #496 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ballinger El (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 368 students, 68% FRL); Ballinger J H (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 179 students, 61% FRL); Ballinger H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 266 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Runnels County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (4.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 404 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 404 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.43%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,378
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
307 Sargent Ave	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,593 (-5%)	6mo	$89,000	$56	68
407 Largent Ave	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,496 (-11%)	4mo	$54,724	$37	66
1105 N 5th Ave	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,424 (-15%)	7mo	$158,000	$111	53
809 N 6th St	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,845 (+10%)	6mo	$169,500	$92	50
906 Country Club Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,790 (+7%)	12mo	$249,500	$139	48
600 Mccarver Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,575 (-6%)	11mo	$188,500	$120	47
909 N 5th St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-15%)	14mo	$65,000	$46	46
1100 8th St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,914 (+14%)	11mo	$185,000	$97	45
905 Ave D	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,528 (-9%)	15mo	$145,000	$95	42
1002 Country Club Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,847 (+10%)	13mo	$230,000	$125	39
802 N 11th St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,492 (-11%)	12mo	$164,900	$111	38
409 8th St	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,923 (+15%)	13mo	$139,500	$73	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.09% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $30,604
• Equity at exit: $64,004

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.54×
• Total profit: $88,791
• Equity at exit: $105,187

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76821

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,205 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,385/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,042

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $200	-5% $164	+0% $129	+5% $94	+10% $58
Rent	-10% $34	-5% $81	+0% $129	+5% $177	+10% $224
Rate	-1.0pp $192	-0.5pp $161	base $129	+0.5pp $97	+1.0pp $64

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-03-30
   soldstatus
2. 2026-02-14
   status Pending
3. 2026-02-03
   price $125,000
4. 2025-10-21
   price $145,000
5. 2025-08-27
   price $148,000
6. 2025-07-16
   status Active
7. 2025-05-21
   status Active
8. 2025-02-25
   status Pending
9. 2025-01-03
   price $148,500
10. 2024-12-11
    price $150,000
11. 2024-12-04
    price $155,000
12. 2024-11-18
    status Active
13. 2024-08-15
    listed $159,000 Active
14. 2023-10-13
    soldstatus
15. 2023-10-12
    soldstatus Closed 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Whop, whoooop !!! Calling all investors. .. if you are in the market for your next rental property or fix and flip look no further. Home offers tons of potential. Bring your imagination and start your next venture here.

16. 2023-09-18
    status Pending 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Whop, whoooop !!! Calling all investors. .. if you are in the market for your next rental property or fix and flip look no further. Home offers tons of potential. Bring your imagination and start your next venture here.

17. 2023-08-16
    status Active 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Whop, whoooop !!! Calling all investors. .. if you are in the market for your next rental property or fix and flip look no further. Home offers tons of potential. Bring your imagination and start your next venture here.

18. 2023-08-14
    historical 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Whop, whoooop !!! Calling all investors. .. if you are in the market for your next rental property or fix and flip look no further. Home offers tons of potential. Bring your imagination and start your next venture here.

19. 2023-08-09
    listed $56,900 Active 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Whop, whoooop !!! Calling all investors. .. if you are in the market for your next rental property or fix and flip look no further. Home offers tons of potential. Bring your imagination and start your next venture here.

20. 2006-06-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,385 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$903/yr (+$75/mo · 65.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,462
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,385
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,157
• − Management: −$1,157
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$500
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$120
• After-tax cash flow: $1,669/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ballinger ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809300
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,665
• Composite: 30.8/100
• National rank: #6144
• State rank: #496 of 826 in TX

Livability — Ballinger

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #623
• US rank: #11849

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ballinger, TX
• City population: 4,572
• Population (ZIP): 4,572

Population outlook (Runnels County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,754 people
• By 2030: 10,843 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 10,946 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 10,981 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 11,103 · +3.2%
• By 2100: 10,051 · -6.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 20% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 20% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Runnels

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.1) · D 11.1% · R 88.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.1pp toward R · 2008: -62.0pp · 2024: -77.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.1 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+74.1 2012: R+70.6 2008: R+62.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.09%
• Current HPI: 168.3222
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+119.7% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-02-14 Pending — SAAR TX
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $125,000 SAAR TX
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $145,000 SAAR TX
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $148,000 SAAR TX
• 2025-07-16 Relisted — SAAR TX
• 2025-05-21 Relisted — SAAR TX
• 2025-02-25 Pending — SAAR TX
• 2025-01-03 Price Changed $148,500 SAAR TX
• 2024-12-11 Price Changed $150,000 SAAR TX
• 2024-12-04 Price Changed $155,000 SAAR TX
• 2024-11-18 Relisted — SAAR TX
• 2024-08-15 Listed $159,000 SAAR TX
• 2023-10-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-10-12 Sold (MLS) — SAAR TX
• 2023-09-18 Pending — SAAR TX
• 2023-08-16 Relisted — SAAR TX
• 2023-08-14 Delisted — SAAR TX
• 2023-08-09 Listed $56,900 SAAR TX
• 2006-06-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,385 · +14.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.