4201 Oto Ct · Canyon Creek, TX 76048

$60,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1979 3,136 sqft lot Est $55k · 10% over $35/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• ARV discount +3.0/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

#639-CUTE AS A BUG! GREAT WEEKENDER OR FOR A SMALL FAMILY! NICE CORNER LOT WITH COVERED PORCH, CARPORT & STORAGE BUILDING. NEW CARPET & FRESH PAINT! READY TO MOVE IN & GO PLAY!

Key facts

• Gated hoa community
• Covered carport
• Lake activities

Tags

• GATED HOA COMMUNITY
• COVERED CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED
• COVERED PATIO
• LAKE ACTIVITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No known restrictions; Property listed for sale
• Financial info: Listing accepts cash and private financing
• HOA & community: Mandatory association (Indian Harbor Owners Association); Annual association fee of $415 (includes security)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered carport (1 covered/carport space); Concrete parking surface
• Security: Community association provides security
• Utilities: Co-op water; Septic; Property in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residential; Entry on one level; Built in 1979; No known accessibility features; Not attached to another dwelling; No accessory unit
• Construction: Siding construction; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Covered patio/porch; Storage structure on property; Grassed and partially wooded vegetation; Corner lot on a cul-de-sac; Utilities easement

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (on main level)
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Window cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; 4 total rooms; 2 living areas; One-level home
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry information provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $442 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 4.7% in Canyon Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,102 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mambrino School (math 53% / reading 48%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 886 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 929 active listings in the ZIP; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $60,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.58%
• DSCR: 2.41
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $54,600
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4204 Tejas Trl	0.05mi	1/1.0	656 (+9%)	13mo	$59,500	$91	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $16,438
• Equity at exit: $8,946

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.54×
• Total profit: $42,675
• Equity at exit: $5,188

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 929
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,071 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $356/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $442

Break-even live

Break-even rent $512

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 643-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 583-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $60,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $356 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,098 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$742/yr (+$62/mo · 208.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,857
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$356
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,029
• − Management: −$1,029
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $4,618
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,108
• After-tax cash flow: $4,197/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Creek

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1102
• US rank: #19485

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+275.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $60,000 NTREIS
• 2022-04-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-11-01 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2005-10-05 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2005-05-16 Listed $16,000 NTREIS
• 2004-08-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-01-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-09-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $356 · -16.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.