11 Seaford Rd · Mastic Beach, NY 11951

$449,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1972 10,019 sqft lot $333/sqft · 12% below area Est $511k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity knocks in Mastic Beach! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch offers easy one-level living and incredible bonus space. Featuring an attached garage for added convenience plus a rare 2-car detached garage with endless potential ideal for additional vehicles, a workshop, storage, home gym, studio, or future creative space. With endless possibilities to customize and make it your own, this home combines comfort, functionality, and flexibility. A must-see!

Key facts

• Attached garage
• One-level living
• Bonus space

Tags

• ATTACHED GARAGE
• DETACHED GARAGE
• BONUS SPACE
• ONE-LEVEL LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $401k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $401k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.7% in Mastic Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#936 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, amenities F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $126k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($423k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $450k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $400,852 (10.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.32%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $510,522
• List price: $449,999
• Delta: -11.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
193 Laurelton Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,349 (-0%)	5mo	$465,000	$345	89
184 Bayview Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-4%)	5mo	$280,000	$215	79
514 Neighborhood Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+4%)	2mo	$549,990	$393	67
76 Gooseberry Rd	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,286 (-5%)	6mo	$400,000	$311	62
27 Pinewood Dr	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,250 (-7%)	1mo	$598,000	$478	62
6 Victoria Pl	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,470 (+9%)	4mo	$470,000	$320	62
74 Alcolade Dr E	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,440 (+7%)	2mo	$431,000	$299	55
38 Barclay Rd	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,370 (+2%)	6mo	$450,000	$328	52
61 Arpage Dr E	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,500 (+11%)	2mo	$580,000	$387	47
277 Commack Rd	0.51mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (-11%)	5mo	$450,000	$375	44
17 Bellport Rd	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,224 (-9%)	4mo	$465,000	$380	43
166 Neighborhood Rd	0.70mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,176 (-13%)	3mo	$463,500	$394	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $253,923
• Equity at exit: $405,395

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.88×
• Total profit: $740,836
• Equity at exit: $874,249

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11951

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,009 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$481 /mo · $5,769/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$842
• Net cashflow: $139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,833

Max offer price $449,999

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
165 Lynbrook Dr Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	2.0	1520	$4,000	$2.63	1d	1	0.17mi
126 Flower Rd Shirley, NY	4.0	1.0	1756	$4,100	$2.33	1d	1	0.51mi
6 Fairview Dr Shirley, NY	4.0	2.0	1302	$4,299	$3.30	2d	1	0.75mi
192 Cypress Dr Mastic Beach, NY	4.0	2.0	1404	$3,800	$2.71	43d	1	1.03mi
44 Pine Tree Dr Shirley, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$4,200	$2.62	1d	1	1.25mi
149 Washington Dr Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$3,400	$2.95	1d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $449,999 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $449,999 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $449,999 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $449,999 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $449,999 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $449,999 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $449,999 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $449,999 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $449,999 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $449,999 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $449,999 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $449,999 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $449,999 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $449,999 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-04-06
    listed $449,999 Active 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    Opportunity knocks in Mastic Beach! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch offers easy one-level living and incredible bonus space. Featuring an attached garage for added convenience plus a rare 2-car detached garage with endless potential ideal for additional vehicles, a workshop, storage, home gym, studio, or future creative space. With endless possibilities to customize and make it your own, this home combines comfort, functionality, and flexibility. A must-see!

16. 2002-01-14
    soldstatus $135,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,769 · $481/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,687 · $557/mo
• Expected delta: +$918/yr (+$77/mo · 15.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,102
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$5,769
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,848
• − Management: −$3,848
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$5,911
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,419
• After-tax cash flow: $3,082/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mastic Beach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #936
• US rank: #18216

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mastic Beach, NY
• City population: 15,830
• Population (ZIP): 15,830

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.46%
• Current HPI: 829.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+233.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $449,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-01-14 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,769 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.