2338 Wren Meadow Rd · Pecan Grove, TX 77406

$200,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,965 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1982 8,036 sqft lot $16/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity!! RE DO Special! Needs work. Low tax rate! Very low HOA! Kitchen & family room have tile flooring, formal living & dining are carpeted. All bedroom are up. ABSOLUTELY NO SHOWINGS UNTIL MONDAY 6/15

Key facts

• 8,036 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association-maintained pool
• HOA & community: Community association: The Grove CIA; Annual association fee of $195 (covers clubhouse and recreation facilities); Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, playground, tennis courts, sport court, golf course, picnic area, and trails; Curbs in community

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Detached garage; Driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation; Built in 1982
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Pond on lot; Subdivision setting; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 4 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; High ceilings; Laminate countertops; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Ceiling fans; Gas and wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 2.1% in Pecan Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#256 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1222 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($142k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.71%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $536,665
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1611 Deerfield Ct	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,750 (-7%)	2mo	$500,000	$182	68
1627 S Hearthside Dr	0.62mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,990 (+1%)	2mo	$494,900	$166	63
1207 Deerfield Rd	0.39mi	4/2.5	2,554 (-14%)	1mo	$429,000	$168	56
2015 Woodland Dr	0.71mi	4/3.5	3,072 (+4%)	4mo	$350,000	$114	56
1614 Morton League Rd	0.48mi	4/4.0	3,172 (+7%)	8mo	$399,999	$126	55
1607 S Hearthside Dr	0.60mi	4/3.5	3,130 (+6%)	9mo	$485,000	$155	53
1506 Majors Dr	0.43mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,583 (-13%)	5mo	$490,000	$190	49
1519 Morton League Rd	0.42mi	4/2.5	2,560 (-14%)	8mo	$345,000	$135	49
1123 Woodland Ct	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,597 (-12%)	7mo	$490,000	$189	47
1111 Hearth Ave	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,727 (-8%)	8mo	$584,121	$214	45
1131 Hearth Ave	0.73mi	4/4.5	2,815 (-5%)	8mo	$510,000	$181	45
1123 Hearth Ave	0.73mi	5/4.5 (+1)	2,849 (-4%)	8mo	$535,000	$188	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $32,043
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $83,372
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77406

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1222
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,757 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$573 /mo · $6,879/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$789
• Net cashflow: $1,180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,263

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
707 Land Grant Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	1994	$2,595	$1.30	44d	1	0.72mi
331 Old Silo St Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	3568	$5,500	$1.54	19d	1	1.33mi
331 Old Silo St Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	3568	$5,500	$1.54	4d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $200,000 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 218-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $200,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,879 · $573/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,879 · $573/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,082
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$6,879
• − Insurance: −$1,798
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,607
• − Management: −$3,607
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $11,979
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,875
• After-tax cash flow: $11,285/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pecan Grove

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #256
• US rank: #6017

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pecan Grove, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,918
• Household income: $141,869
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 575.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 14% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.18%
• Current HPI: 222.9525
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+40.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2003-01-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2002-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2002-02-12 Listed $138,500 HARMLS
• 2001-12-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2001-12-01 Listed $142,500 HARMLS
• 2001-07-14 Listed $142,500 HARMLS
• 1995-11-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,879 · -3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.