549-A Mayfair Rd · Leisure Village West, NJ 08759

$235,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,243 sqft · Condo public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1977 $189/sqft · 21% below area Est $296k · 21% under $420/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

In a location second to none, this Stratford model does not disapoint! Offering a large main living space, 4 season room/den, Dining Area, large kitchenwith a private shaded patio space, spacious primary suite with walk in closet and a private, updated bathroom. A second bedroom and updated bathroom for guests to enjoy and a sun soaked, Fenced in patio area overlooking the greens. Enjoy the added privacy this home provides. Not only is this an end unit, but it has open space and an adorable gazebo in sight as you walk out the beautiful double door entry. Also featuring a laundry/mudroom located off of the one car garage. Plenty of parking. Great Clubhouses, pools, activities, golf, bocci and more!

Key facts

• 4 season room
• End unit
• Laundry mudroom

Tags

• 4 SEASON ROOM
• PRIVATE SHADED PATIO
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• FENCED IN PATIO
• END UNIT
• LAUNDRY MUDROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee; HOA fee includes: common area maintenance, bus service, exterior building maintenance, lawn maintenance, pool(s), recreation facility, snow removal, trash; Community amenities: golf course, club house, common grounds, community center, exercise room, security, shuffleboard, swimming pool, tennis courts; Community pool is in-ground and heated

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Fee simple ownership; Senior community (55+)
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built year per assessor
• Exterior features: Patio(s); Porch(es)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Stove; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (including 2 full on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Stall shower; Sliding glass door(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $235k).
• Recommended offer: $228k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 5.8% in Leisure Village West — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#261 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 40% FRL vs 23% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 658 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $235k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.02%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,351
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -20.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-27,247
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-8,972
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 658
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,776 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$277 /mo · $3,323/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$420
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,566

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $299	-5% $232	+0% $166	+5% $99	+10% $33
Rent	-10% $-54	-5% $56	+0% $166	+5% $275	+10% $385
Rate	-1.0pp $284	-0.5pp $225	base $166	+0.5pp $105	+1.0pp $43

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	967	$2,200	$2.28	44d	1	0.72mi
150 Farm Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1280	$3,000	$2.34	23d	1	0.87mi
43C Edinburgh Ln Manchester, NJ	2.0	1.0	836	$2,200	$2.63	44d	1	0.88mi
2501 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1252	$3,468	$2.77	0d	6	0.92mi
2035 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,775	$2.02	0d	3	1.17mi
1033 Birmingham Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.5	1250	$2,700	$2.16	0d	1	1.21mi
501 Bismarck St Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,775	$2.13	44d	1	1.34mi
1700 New Jersey 37 Unit 112-11 Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1224	$2,299	$1.88	0d	1	1.47mi
1425 Amsterdam Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1376	$3,500	$2.54	44d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $420 · $5,040/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $235,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $235,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    listed $235,000 Active 708-char remark
16. 2026-04-25
    price $235,000 708-char remark

    Show marketing remark (708 chars)

    In a location second to none, this Stratford model does not disapoint! Offering a large main living space, 4 season room/den, Dining Area, large kitchenwith a private shaded patio space, spacious primary suite with walk in closet and a private, updated bathroom. A second bedroom and updated bathroom for guests to enjoy and a sun soaked, Fenced in patio area overlooking the greens. Enjoy the added privacy this home provides. Not only is this an end unit, but it has open space and an adorable gazebo in sight as you walk out the beautiful double door entry. Also featuring a laundry/mudroom located off of the one car garage. Plenty of parking. Great Clubhouses, pools, activities, golf, bocci and more!

17. 2026-04-24
    listed $435,000 Active 708-char remark

    Show marketing remark (708 chars)

    In a location second to none, this Stratford model does not disapoint! Offering a large main living space, 4 season room/den, Dining Area, large kitchenwith a private shaded patio space, spacious primary suite with walk in closet and a private, updated bathroom. A second bedroom and updated bathroom for guests to enjoy and a sun soaked, Fenced in patio area overlooking the greens. Enjoy the added privacy this home provides. Not only is this an end unit, but it has open space and an adorable gazebo in sight as you walk out the beautiful double door entry. Also featuring a laundry/mudroom located off of the one car garage. Plenty of parking. Great Clubhouses, pools, activities, golf, bocci and more!

18. 2016-09-07
    soldstatus $120,000
19. 2016-08-30
    soldstatus $120,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    Great Location..Corner property end unit on first par of golf course. Well maintained Stratford model with newer kitchen appliances and french sliding glass doors to patio. Newer carpeting throughout. Additional access to fenced in patio through back of garage. Updated master bath. Great active adult community. Amenities include two Executive golf courses, two outdoor pools,tennis courts,fitness center, jogging path more than 50 clubs and activities and much more.

20. 2016-07-11
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    Great Location..Corner property end unit on first par of golf course. Well maintained Stratford model with newer kitchen appliances and french sliding glass doors to patio. Newer carpeting throughout. Additional access to fenced in patio through back of garage. Updated master bath. Great active adult community. Amenities include two Executive golf courses, two outdoor pools,tennis courts,fitness center, jogging path more than 50 clubs and activities and much more.

21. 2016-06-22
    price $121,900

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    Great Location..Corner property end unit on first par of golf course. Well maintained Stratford model with newer kitchen appliances and french sliding glass doors to patio. Newer carpeting throughout. Additional access to fenced in patio through back of garage. Updated master bath. Great active adult community. Amenities include two Executive golf courses, two outdoor pools,tennis courts,fitness center, jogging path more than 50 clubs and activities and much more.

22. 2016-05-29
    listed $129,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    Great Location..Corner property end unit on first par of golf course. Well maintained Stratford model with newer kitchen appliances and french sliding glass doors to patio. Newer carpeting throughout. Additional access to fenced in patio through back of garage. Updated master bath. Great active adult community. Amenities include two Executive golf courses, two outdoor pools,tennis courts,fitness center, jogging path more than 50 clubs and activities and much more.

23. 1995-08-18
    soldstatus $83,000
24. 1980-10-01
    soldstatus $68,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,323 · $277/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,587 · $382/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,264/yr (+$105/mo · 38.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,308
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$3,323
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,665
• − Management: −$2,665
• − HOA: −$5,040
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$1,560
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$374
• After-tax cash flow: $2,361/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Leisure Village West

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #7714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village West, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+245.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $235,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $235,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $435,000 MOMLS
• 2016-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2016-08-30 Sold (MLS) $120,000 MOMLS
• 2016-07-11 Pending — MOMLS
• 2016-06-22 Price Changed $121,900 MOMLS
• 2016-05-29 Listed $129,900 MOMLS
• 1995-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records
• 1980-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,323 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.