417 Umatilla Plan · Fort Myers Beach, FL 33931

$127,995

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 624 sqft · Manufactured · 215 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This unique 1 bedroom 1 bath home is almost complete and will be move in ready very soon! 417 is a spacious 1/1 that boasts approx. 800 sq. ft. and really maximizes natural light and open floor plan. This home has LVP flooring, crown molding, tray ceiling, lots of built in storage, a metal roof and much more! This lake view home also has a huge front porch over looking one of our beautiful lakes on our property making it a perfect spot for relaxation and entertainment. Call today to schedule a tour of this brand new home, with exterior photos coming soon!

Key facts

• Built in storage
• Metal roof
• Tray ceiling

Tags

• LVP FLOORING
• CROWN MOLDING
• TRAY CEILING
• BUILT IN STORAGE
• METAL ROOF
• LAKE VIEW

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $127,995

Exterior

• Home design: Single-story plan
• Construction: 624 living area (plan)
• Exterior features: Located at 417 Umatilla Trail, Fort Myers Beach, FL

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Plan home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $272 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $128k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 0.3% in Fort Myers Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#489 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 876 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $885 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $112,635 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.10%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-3,413
• Equity at exit: $19,084

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $19,402
• Equity at exit: $11,067

Cash invested: $35,839 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33931

• Home prices YoY: -18.8%
• Active inventory: 876
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,464 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$160 /mo · $1,920/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,120

Max offer price $127,995

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,999
• Closing costs: $3,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11430 Kimble Dr Unit 11432 front Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,300	$1.86	3d	1	0.48mi
11430 Kimble Dr Unit 11430 front Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,295	$1.85	3d	1	0.48mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $127,995 Active 215 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $127,995 Active 214 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $127,995 Active 213 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $127,995 Active 211 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $127,995 Active 207 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $127,995 Active 205 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $127,995 Active 199 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $127,995 Active 198 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,563
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,170
• − Property taxes: −$1,920
• − Insurance: −$640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,405
• − Management: −$1,405
• − Depreciation: −$3,723
• Taxable income: $1,300
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$312
• After-tax cash flow: $2,949/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fort Myers Beach

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #489
• US rank: #8995

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 8,350
• Household income: $79,018
• Rent vs Own: 10.7% rent · 89.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 145.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.12%
• Current HPI: 837.37
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B