9840 Channel Dr NW · Olympia, WA 98502

$249,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1980 7,696 sqft lot Est $313k · 20% under $127/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Nestled at the end of Steamboat Island peninsula, with breathtaking panoramic views of Puget Sound and Mount Rainier, is Olympia's best kept secret: Carlyon Beach. With a long list of private amenities, including a clubhouse, two playgrounds, a dog park, kayak racks, and a MARINA, Carlyon Beach has something for you! Carlyon Beach residents have access to some of the best kayaking options on the South Sound launching from Sandy Beach with easy access to Hope Island, Totten Inlet, Hammersley Inlet and more. This property offers space, flexibility, and upside potential. The existing 3 bed manufactured home wants someone to make it home again and deserves to be restored! There's a carport, 2 o

Key facts

• Dog park
• Kayak racks
• Clubhouse

Tags

• PANORAMIC VIEWS
• PRIVATE AMENITIES
• CLUBHOUSE
• PLAYGROUNDS
• DOG PARK
• KAYAK RACKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 896 (per public records)
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: HOA with monthly fee of $127 covering water and common area maintenance; Community features include boat launch, CCRs, clubhouse, park, and playground; Community waterfront / private beach access

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Driveway; Covered parking for 1 vehicle
• Security: Partially fenced
• Utilities: Electric service; Community water (Carlyon Beach); Septic sewer; Power provided by PSE
• Home design: Manufactured home on land (single wide); One story; Main entry; Northeast facing
• Construction: Metal/vinyl exterior; Torch down roof; Tie-down foundation; Montebello make
• Exterior features: Deck; Partially fenced yard; Outbuildings; Fruit trees; Garden space; Paved lot; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Laminate; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central air
• Interior features: Water heater; Wired for a generator
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater (located on front exterior wall)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $211 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (5.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.4% in Olympia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in WA, #1,036 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• Griffin School District (suburban): math 59% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #28 of 291 in WA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Griffin School (577 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 304 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $250k implies a 294% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $237,419 (5.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.61%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $312,704
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9607 Whitecap Dr NW	0.28mi	3/1.0	945 (+6%)	16mo	$340,000	$360	65
2529 Westwind Dr NW	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	974 (+9%)	8mo	$318,150	$327	60
9708 Steamboat Island Rd NW	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (+7%)	22mo	$335,000	$349	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $149,898
• Equity at exit: $225,130

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.17×
• Total profit: $431,653
• Equity at exit: $485,501

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98502

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 304
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,374 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,480/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$127
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,108

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9621 Steamboat Island Rd NW Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	1032	$2,950	$2.86	44d	1	0.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $127 · $1,524/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $249,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,480 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,449 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: +$969/yr (+$81/mo · 65.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,490
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$1,480
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,279
• − Management: −$2,279
• − HOA: −$1,524
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$1,590
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$382
• After-tax cash flow: $2,909/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Griffin School District
• NCES district ID: 5303330
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $80,706
• Composite: 58.36/100
• National rank: #2079
• State rank: #28 of 291 in WA

Livability — Olympia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #1036

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 98,428
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 35,398
• Household income: $92,207
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1811.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.49%
• Current HPI: 1056.49
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.16%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+524.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $249,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $63,500 Public Records
• 2003-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $44,784 Public Records
• 1997-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,480 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.