11280 Braes Forest Dr #105 · Houston, TX 77071

$244,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,962 sqft · Townhouse public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1981 1,800 sqft lot $250/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0

Listing remarks

Looking for more space without stretching your budget? This spacious 3-bedroom, 3.5-bath townhome offers approximately 2,962 square feet of living space in the Seville Townhomes community. The versatile floor plan features multiple living areas, a large game room, three generously sized bedrooms, and three full bathrooms, providing flexibility for guests, remote work, hobbies, or multi-generational living. The primary suite includes vaulted ceilings, a fireplace, ample closet space, and a private bath. Recent updates include flooring, interior paint, quartz countertops, renovated bathrooms, updated fixtures, and more. Enjoy an attached two-car garage, private balconies, abundant natural lig

Key facts

• $250 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association pool available
• HOA & community: 21 Seville Townhomes Homeowners association; Community pool; Association fee $250 monthly (includes common areas); Community features include curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Additional paved parking; Electric gate; Unassigned parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Two stories; Full ownership; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Built in 1981; Brick, cement siding, and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry / Butler's pantry; Electric oven and electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (second floor); Additional bedrooms on second floor (two other bedrooms)
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Primary bathroom on second floor with separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Wet bar and dry bar; Breakfast bar; Butler's pantry / walk-in pantry; Entrance foyer; High and vaulted ceilings; Brick walls; Double vanity; Separate shower and tub/shower; Vanity; Window coverings; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Insulated doors; Two fireplaces (gas log, wood burning, free standing)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in utility room; Washer and dryer included; Electric and gas dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-165 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Welch Middle (math 11% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,543 of 1,662 statewide, top 94%, 645 students, 97% FRL); Sharpstown H S (math 7% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,632 statewide, top 93%, 1,855 students, 89% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 71% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,265/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 1242% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $245k implies a 824% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,829 (11.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.88%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.73% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-32,338
• Equity at exit: $62,335

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-43,410
• Equity at exit: $68,242

Cash invested: $68,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77071

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,265 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax from tax record: −$318 /mo · $3,813/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $-165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,473

Max offer price $215,829

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,225
• Closing costs: $7,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11280 Braes Forest Dr #301 Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2908	$1,000	$0.34	43d	1	0.03mi
8115 Braesview Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2272	$2,500	$1.10	43d	1	1.00mi
11418 Braewick Dr Unit 1514798P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1991	$12,178	$6.12	22d	1	1.39mi
6031 Cerritos Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2232	$2,450	$1.10	43d	1	1.45mi
6171 Dryad Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2240	$2,000	$0.89	14d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,900 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,900 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $244,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,813 · $318/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,482 · $373/mo
• Expected delta: +$669/yr (+$56/mo · 17.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,182
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,718
• − Property taxes: −$3,813
• − Insurance: −$1,224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,175
• − Management: −$2,175
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$7,124
• Taxable loss: −$6,047
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,451
• After-tax cash flow: $-524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,056
• Household income: $54,139
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1242.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 46% Hispanic / Latino 26% White 17% Two or more races 8% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 25% Vietnamese 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.73%
• Current HPI: 250.0788
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.51%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+824.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $244,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $119,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-24 Listed $129,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-10-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-05 Price Changed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-02 Price Changed $192,990 HARMLS
• 2025-06-27 Listed $195,990 HARMLS
• 1992-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $26,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,813 · -15.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.