157 Shady Glen Cir · Shepherdsville, KY 40165

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,615 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2004 8,712 sqft lot Est $273k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Wonderful opportunity to reimagine this all-brick, 3-bedroom, 2 full-bath home. Thoughtfully designed with a spacious living room anchored by a fireplace and a family room featuring soaring ceilings, the home offers a strong foundation for your own customization. The inviting eat-in kitchen complements the layout, while accessibility features are integrated throughout the home. A separate mudroom with a dedicated laundry area adds everyday convenience. The property also includes a 2-car attached garage and a storage shed for additional functionality. Outdoors, the backyard provides a serene, private retreat with picturesque views of mature trees and abundant wildlife. Don't delay, give us a

Key facts

• All-brick
• Soaring ceilings
• Family room

Tags

• ALL-BRICK
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• FAMILY ROOM
• SOARING CEILINGS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Shady Glen subdivision
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family ranch-style home; One story; Built in 2004
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Handicap provisions; Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen located on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the first floor; Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms, including primary bathroom on the first floor
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Six closets; No basement; Entry hall; Mud room
• Laundry & utility: First-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.5% in Shepherdsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#119 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bullitt County (suburban): math 29% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #55 of 165 in KY (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 380 units permitted in Bullitt County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bullitt County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $235k implies a 197% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,312 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.86%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $272,935
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
128 Clover Cove Ct	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,450 (-10%)	11mo	$235,000	$162	68
376 Clover Cove Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,540 (-5%)	19mo	$224,000	$145	68
296 Clover Cove Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,423 (-12%)	10mo	$259,900	$183	67
111 Evergreen St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,647 (+2%)	23mo	$190,100	$115	59
1420 Raymond Rd	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,440 (-11%)	9mo	$305,000	$212	47
572 Nancy Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,713 (+6%)	13mo	$295,000	$172	46
495 Nancy Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,808 (+12%)	11mo	$305,000	$169	29
531 Nancy Dr	0.69mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,837 (+14%)	9mo	$290,000	$158	28
456 Nancy Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,774 (+10%)	24mo	$299,990	$169	24
478 Nancy Dr	0.69mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,774 (+10%)	24mo	$274,990	$155	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-31,674
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-19,562
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40165

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,953 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,330/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,824

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1701 Saltwell Springs Cir Shepherdsville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1075	$2,275	$2.12	24d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-06
   price $235,000
3. 2026-05-04
   listed $219,900 Active
4. 1999-07-01
   soldstatus $79,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,330 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,021 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$691/yr (+$58/mo · 52.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,437
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,330
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,875
• − Management: −$1,875
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$2,817
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$676
• After-tax cash flow: $1,899/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullitt County
• NCES district ID: 2100750
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $55,009
• Composite: 30.78/100
• National rank: #6151
• State rank: #55 of 165 in KY

Livability — Shepherdsville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #119
• US rank: #5674

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shepherdsville, KY
• County: Bullitt County · 62,065 people
• City population: 38,403
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 38,403
• Household income: $79,540
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 800.0

Population outlook (Bullitt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,555 people
• By 2030: 94,389 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 102,759 · +14.7%
• By 2050: 108,955 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 121,898 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 126,383 · +41.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bullitt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 23.8% · R 74.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: -32.3pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+48.0 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+35.7 2008: R+32.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.91%
• Current HPI: 247.1595
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+197.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $235,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $219,900 Metro Search MLS
• 1999-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,330 · -3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.