35 Spencer Way · Millbrook, AL 36022

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,944 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1997 0.46 ac lot $141/sqft · 10% below area Est $306k · 10% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fresh, move-in ready, and full of character! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the sought-after Cobblestone Run subdivision sits on nearly half an acre and checks every box. From the moment you walk in, you'll notice the BRAND NEW CARPET, FRESH PAINT, and NEW BLINDS throughout, giving the entire home a clean, updated feel. The open-concept dining room flows seamlessly into the den, where a cozy fireplace sets the tone for relaxed evenings at home. The kitchen is both beautiful and functional, featuring granite countertops, a breakfast bar, and high-end appliances (only 2 years old); plus a bright breakfast area perfect for your morning coffee. A dedicated laundry area and separate backyard ent

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• New carpet
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• NEW CARPET
• FRESH PAINT
• NEW BLINDS
• COZY FIREPLACE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BREAKFAST BAR

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $250 annual fee (contact agent for details)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2 parking pads
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story; Brick construction; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick exterior
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard with privacy fencing; Sprinkler/irrigation system; Covered porch; Porch; Storage; Workshop; Mature trees; Subdivision location; Outside city limits; Paved road access; Sprinklers in ground

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Smooth cooktop; Microwave; Microwave hood fan; Refrigerator; Plumbed for ice maker
• Bedrooms: Walk-in closet(s)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double vanity
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Tray ceilings; Double vanity; High ceilings; Pull-down attic stairs; Wired sound system; Built-in sound system; Window treatments; Breakfast bar; Programmable thermostat; Blinds; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (14.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.4% in Millbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#110 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Elmore County (town): math 27% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #21 of 129 in AL (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 92 units permitted in Elmore County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Elmore County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,323 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.55%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $306,251
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -10.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
80 Spencer Way	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,825 (-6%)	1mo	$257,000	$141	86
249 Spencer Way	0.05mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,137 (+10%)	0mo	$325,000	$152	74
137 Old Orchard Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,723 (-11%)	0mo	$265,000	$154	69
181 Brookshire Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,805 (-7%)	8mo	$274,900	$152	68
460 Spring Hollow Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	2,042 (+5%)	4mo	$236,000	$116	66
103 Brookshire Dr	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,849 (-5%)	3mo	$300,000	$162	66
160 Old Orchard Loop	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,755 (-10%)	8mo	$240,000	$137	62
850 Myrick Rd	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,797 (-8%)	4mo	$245,000	$136	54
171 Harrison Hill Ct	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,069 (+6%)	6mo	$335,000	$162	53
176 Harrison Hill Ct	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,055 (+6%)	8mo	$320,000	$156	52
485 Kenner Creek Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	2,206 (+14%)	4mo	$305,000	$138	51
2 Wesley Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,674 (-14%)	1mo	$230,000	$137	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-30,173
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-8,108
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36022

• Home prices YoY: -11.9%
• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,353 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $641/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,065

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
428 Maribeth Loop Deatsville, AL	4.0	2.0	2127	$2,500	$1.18	14d	1	0.28mi
21 Shelton Cir Deatsville, AL	3.0	2.0	1848	$1,900	$1.03	14d	1	0.91mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $275,000 Pending 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Contingent 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Contingent 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Contingent 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,000 Contingent 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $275,000 Contingent 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $275,000 Contingent 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $275,000 Contingent 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $275,000 Contingent 18 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Contingent 17 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $275,000 Contingent 16 DOM
12. 2026-05-18
    historical Contingent 1233-char remark
13. 2026-05-14
    listed $275,000 Active 1233-char remark
14. 2010-04-21
    listed $195,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $641 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,128 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$487/yr (+$41/mo · 76.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,239
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$641
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,259
• − Management: −$2,259
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$1,951
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$468
• After-tax cash flow: $3,204/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elmore County
• NCES district ID: 0101290
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $54,898
• Composite: 35.27/100
• National rank: #4974
• State rank: #21 of 129 in AL

Livability — Millbrook

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #110
• US rank: #12087

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Millbrook, AL
• City population: 14,600
• Population (ZIP): 16,288

Population outlook (Elmore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,154 people
• By 2030: 86,667 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 89,014 · +4.5%
• By 2050: 90,331 · +6.1%
• By 2075: 96,096 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 95,290 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 10% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Elmore

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.1) · D 23.6% · R 75.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.1pp toward R · 2008: -50.9pp · 2024: -52.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.1 2020: R+48.2 2016: R+52.0 2012: R+48.8 2008: R+50.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.08%
• Current HPI: 215.9763
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+41.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Pending — MAAR
• 2026-05-18 Contingent — MAAR
• 2026-05-14 Listed $275,000 MAAR
• 2010-04-21 Listed $195,000 MAAR

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $641 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.