1850 Mary Ln · Holiday, FL 34690

$114,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1987 3,950 sqft lot Est $114k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY!! This two bedroom two bathroom mobile home is in need of some TLC. It has a spacious kitchen, living area, and bedrooms that can be turned into a cozy atmosphere. The exterior of the mobile home has seen better days, and needs some attention to make it look new again. The interior needs some work as well, with outdated appliances, old fixtures, and some cosmetic repairs. With a bit of elbow grease and some creative ideas, this home could be transformed into a charming gem! CASH BUYERS ONLY!

Key facts

• Updated property
• New flooring
• 3 new mini splits

Tags

• UPDATED PROPERTY
• NEW FLOORING
• UPDATED KITCHEN CABINETS
• SPACE FOR BREAKFAST TABLE
• MOSTLY UPDATED BATHROOMS
• 3 NEW MINI SPLITS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $527 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 4.5% in Holiday — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#623 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sunray Elementary School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,969 of 2,144 statewide, top 94%, 382 students, 92% FRL); Paul R. Smith Middle School (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 994 students, 82% FRL); Anclote High School (math 28% / reading 38%, grade F, #406 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,205 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 48% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $115k implies a 109% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,549 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.64%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $114,048
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1850 Mary Ln	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,056 (0%)	1mo	$114,000	$108	99
1850 Arcadia Rd	0.04mi	2/2.0	933 (-12%)	12mo	$170,000	$182	69
2331 Baron Dr	0.48mi	2/2.0	960 (-9%)	1mo	$70,000	$73	62
2402 Prestige Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,012 (-4%)	9mo	$145,000	$143	55
1841 Holiday Dr	0.67mi	2/1.0	920 (-13%)	6mo	$75,000	$82	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $10,194
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $33,811
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34690

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,612 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,144/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $527

Break-even live

Break-even rent $945

Max offer price $114,999

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $592	-5% $559	+0% $527	+5% $494	+10% $462
Rent	-10% $400	-5% $463	+0% $527	+5% $591	+10% $654
Rate	-1.0pp $585	-0.5pp $556	base $527	+0.5pp $497	+1.0pp $467

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1552 Alert St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	956	$2,100	$2.20	6d	1	0.35mi
5338 Nancy Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,430	$1.66	26d	1	0.38mi
4823 Longwood Ave Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,800	$1.60	6d	1	0.51mi
2117 Calusa Trl Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1205	$1,595	$1.32	0d	1	0.52mi
2117 Calusa Trl Unit B Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	708	$1,195	$1.69	0d	1	0.52mi
2412 Arcadia Rd Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1360	$1,603	$1.18	26d	1	0.56mi
1254 Firecreek Ct Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1129	$1,500	$1.33	3d	1	0.58mi
4835 Blossom Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1174	$1,700	$1.45	26d	1	0.63mi
4836 Flora Ave Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1113	$1,445	$1.30	26d	1	0.64mi
5637 Golden Nugget Dr Holiday, FL	1.0	1.5	1200	$1,375	$1.15	26d	1	0.66mi
2509 Sweetwood Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	988	$1,650	$1.67	19d	1	0.68mi
5709 Silver Spur Dr Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	727	$1,095	$1.51	1d	1	0.73mi
5709 Silver Spur Dr Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	727	$1,095	$1.51	16d	1	0.73mi
1130 Powersong St Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,800	$2.08	16d	1	0.74mi
1130 Powersong St Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,800	$2.08	26d	1	0.74mi
1551 Swordbill Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,450	$1.85	26d	1	0.75mi
1551 Swordbill Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,450	$1.85	13d	1	0.75mi
2552 Chancery Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,595	$1.95	26d	1	0.75mi
5723 Silver Spur Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,450	$1.85	26d	1	0.75mi
1525 Swordbill Dr Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,090	$1.56	1d	1	0.77mi
1525 Swordbill Dr Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,090	$1.56	22d	1	0.77mi
4313 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	825	$1,300	$1.58	16d	1	0.79mi
2610 Templewood Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	6d	1	0.80mi
1050 Clairborne St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1176	$1,825	$1.55	6d	1	0.81mi
1050 Clairborne St Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1176	$1,825	$1.55	26d	1	0.81mi
2132 Kepner Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,295	$1.41	22d	1	0.81mi
4620 Tropical Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	3d	1	0.85mi
4723 Aegean Ave Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,636	$1.64	6d	1	0.87mi
1330 Chancellor Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$2,550	$1.86	26d	1	0.87mi
4356 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,350	$1.64	26d	1	0.91mi
4354 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit F Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,500	$1.82	26d	1	0.91mi
4326 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit 14E Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	768	$2,000	$2.60	26d	1	0.93mi
2051 Pleasure Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,200	$1.67	26d	1	0.94mi
4334 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,450	$1.89	26d	1	0.96mi
4365 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,300	$1.58	1d	1	0.97mi
5913 Appletree Rd Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1028	$2,300	$2.24	19d	1	0.98mi
4337 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit F Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,500	$1.95	26d	1	1.00mi
4351 Tahitian Gardens Cir Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,150	$1.39	26d	1	1.02mi
4205 Jordana Way Holiday, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,404	$1.37	4d	13	1.19mi
4348 Plaza Dr Holiday, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,499	$1.74	1d	7	1.21mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   price $114,999
3. 2026-04-08
   price $119,900
4. 2026-04-08
   status Active
5. 2026-03-28
   status Pending
6. 2026-03-14
   listed $119,000 Active
7. 2023-06-09
   soldstatus $55,000 Closed 525-char remark

   Show marketing remark (525 chars)

   GREAT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY!! This two bedroom two bathroom mobile home is in need of some TLC. It has a spacious kitchen, living area, and bedrooms that can be turned into a cozy atmosphere. The exterior of the mobile home has seen better days, and needs some attention to make it look new again. The interior needs some work as well, with outdated appliances, old fixtures, and some cosmetic repairs. With a bit of elbow grease and some creative ideas, this home could be transformed into a charming gem! CASH BUYERS ONLY!

8. 2023-05-29
   status Pending 525-char remark

   Show marketing remark (525 chars)

   GREAT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY!! This two bedroom two bathroom mobile home is in need of some TLC. It has a spacious kitchen, living area, and bedrooms that can be turned into a cozy atmosphere. The exterior of the mobile home has seen better days, and needs some attention to make it look new again. The interior needs some work as well, with outdated appliances, old fixtures, and some cosmetic repairs. With a bit of elbow grease and some creative ideas, this home could be transformed into a charming gem! CASH BUYERS ONLY!

9. 2023-05-25
   listed $60,000 Active 525-char remark

   Show marketing remark (525 chars)

   GREAT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY!! This two bedroom two bathroom mobile home is in need of some TLC. It has a spacious kitchen, living area, and bedrooms that can be turned into a cozy atmosphere. The exterior of the mobile home has seen better days, and needs some attention to make it look new again. The interior needs some work as well, with outdated appliances, old fixtures, and some cosmetic repairs. With a bit of elbow grease and some creative ideas, this home could be transformed into a charming gem! CASH BUYERS ONLY!

10. 2004-07-12
    soldstatus $42,000 20-char remark

    Show marketing remark (20 chars)

    Out of M/H Community

11. 2004-06-08
    historical 20-char remark

    Show marketing remark (20 chars)

    Out of M/H Community

12. 2004-04-17
    listed $46,000 20-char remark

    Show marketing remark (20 chars)

    Out of M/H Community

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,144 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,144 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,144
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,547
• − Management: −$1,547
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $4,739
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,137
• After-tax cash flow: $5,185/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Holiday

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #623
• US rank: #12124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 33,730
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,498
• Household income: $49,401
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 625.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 16% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.40%
• Current HPI: 316.5846
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.49%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+150.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $114,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $119,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-14 Listed $119,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-09 Sold (MLS) $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-25 Listed $60,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-12 Sold (MLS) $42,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-08 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-17 Listed $46,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,144 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.