Burnet Plan · Godley, TX 76044

$298,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,794 sqft · SingleFamily · 538 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Burnet offers a flowing layout with spacious main living areas, and a flex space off the entry. The private owner's suite, near the open kitchen and cafe, offers a large walk-in closet and spacious bath. Secondary bedrooms and an additional bath offer room for guests or a growing family. Enjoy the covered back patio and outdoor space for entertaining, or relaxing with friends. This plan is ideal for families seeking an open-concept home design.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Covered back patio
• Outdoor space

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• OUTDOOR SPACE

🏗️ New construction. The $298,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $319,945.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-288 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.5% in Godley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#226 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Godley ISD (rural): math 34% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #466 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Legacy El (math 39% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 408 students, 32% FRL); Godley H S (math 27% / reading 51%, grade F, #859 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 777 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 724 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 49d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 538 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $243,473 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 538 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.85%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,945
• List price: $298,990
• Delta: -6.55%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
432 Avian Way	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,794 (0%)	4mo	$299,990	$167	87
409 Birchwood Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,648 (-8%)	0mo	$287,990	$175	80
592 Highview Ct	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,843 (+3%)	2mo	$360,000	$195	76
1027 Stockton Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,859 (+4%)	4mo	$315,000	$169	75
1160 Country Glen Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,848 (+3%)	2mo	$324,900	$176	73
568 Highview Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,713 (-4%)	3mo	$360,000	$210	72
408 Birchwood Dr	0.12mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,952 (+9%)	0mo	$349,540	$179	70
1017 River Oaks Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,811 (+1%)	1mo	$331,000	$183	66
1005 River Oaks Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,724 (-4%)	2mo	$328,000	$190	62
1261 Grand Meadows Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,840 (+3%)	3mo	$346,000	$188	60
1010 Stockton Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,041 (+14%)	2mo	$319,900	$157	56
933 Creekhollow Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,672 (-7%)	4mo	$320,000	$191	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-70,127
• Equity at exit: $47,705

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-84,506
• Equity at exit: $27,663

Cash invested: $89,585 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 61 active · 20 under contract
• Months of supply: 20.3 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $333,000 ($179/sqft)
• Median days on market: 78 d
• This list price: 13% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -0.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76044

• Home prices YoY: -12.4%
• Active inventory: 724
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,435 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$400 /mo · $4,799/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $-288

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,799

Max offer price $278,324

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-67	-5% $-177	+0% $-288	+5% $-398	+10% $-509
Rent	-10% $-480	-5% $-384	+0% $-288	+5% $-191	+10% $-95
Rate	-1.0pp $-127	-0.5pp $-206	base $-288	+0.5pp $-371	+1.0pp $-455

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,986
• Closing costs: $9,598
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1032 Fairfax Dr Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,300	$1.38	35d	1	0.41mi
920 Elk Ridge Run Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1692	$2,499	$1.48	112d	1	0.45mi
920 Elk Ridge Run Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1683	$2,499	$1.48	106d	1	0.45mi
201 Cliff Ct Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,900	$1.57	106d	1	0.48mi
676 The Cottages Dr Godley, TX	4.0	2.5	2306	$2,450	$1.06	26d	1	0.51mi
644 The Cottages Dr Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,995	$1.20	139d	1	0.56mi
640 The Cottages Dr Godley, TX	4.0	2.5	2291	$2,325	$1.01	35d	1	0.56mi
9508 Ocelot Ct Godley, TX	4.0	3.0	2586	$2,520	$0.97	49d	1	0.97mi
9500 County Road 1001 Godley, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1063	$2,050	$1.93	0d	12	1.20mi
812 Rodgers Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1747	$2,600	$1.49	139d	1	1.22mi
8200 Korat Vis Godley, TX	4.0	2.0	2116	$2,400	$1.13	19d	1	1.49mi
8200 Korat Vis Godley, TX	4.0	2.0	2116	$2,400	$1.13	41d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $298,990 Active 538 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $298,990 Active 537 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $298,990 Active 536 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $298,990 Active 535 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $298,990 Active 534 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $298,990 Active 533 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $298,990 Active 532 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $298,990 Active 531 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $298,990 Active 530 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $298,990 Active 529 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $298,990 Active 528 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $298,990 Active 527 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $298,990 Active 526 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $298,990 Active 525 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $298,990 Active 519 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $298,990 Active 518 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $298,990 Active 516 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $298,990 Active 514 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $298,990 Active 512 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $298,990 Active 511 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $298,990 Active 509 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $298,990 Active 508 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $298,990 Active 507 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $298,990 Active 506 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $298,990 Active 505 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $298,990 Active 504 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    pricedays on market $298,990 Active 503 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $296,990 Active 502 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $296,990 Active 501 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $296,990 Active 500 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $296,990 Active 499 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $296,990 Active 498 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $296,990 Active 497 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $296,990 Active 496 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $296,990 Active 495 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $296,990 Active 494 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $296,990 Active 493 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $296,990 Active 492 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $296,990 Active 491 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $296,990 Active 489 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $296,990 Active 488 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $296,990 Active 487 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $296,990 Active 486 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $296,990 Active 483 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $296,990 Active 482 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $296,990 Active 481 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $296,990 Active 480 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $296,990 Active 478 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $296,990 Active 476 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $296,990 Active 475 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,217
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,922
• − Property taxes: −$4,799
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,337
• − Management: −$2,337
• − Depreciation: −$9,307
• Taxable loss: −$9,086
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,181
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,271/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Burnet plan home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious and modern layout with excellent curb appeal and interior finishes. Minor updates to paint, landscaping, and kitchen appliances would significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes spaces and improves aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes kitchen and improves functionality ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Godley El Middle Godley Middle High Godley H S F TX #859/1,632 Nat'l #8,724/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Godley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820960
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,332
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5820
• State rank: #466 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Godley

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #5528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Godley, TX
• County: Johnson · 179,678 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,759
• Household income: $103,795
• Rent vs Own: 10.3% rent · 89.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11%

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Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.58%
• Current HPI: 259.1029
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-31 Price Changed $296,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-30 Price Changed $261,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-05 Listed $316,990 Zillow