120 E Oregon Ave · Hermiston, OR 97838

$199,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,106 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 277 Days on market

Built 1948 0.30 ac lot $180/sqft · 36% below area Est $309k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for your next project or investment? This property offers endless potential! Sitting on a spacious lot, there’s plenty of room to expand, build, or create your dream outdoor space. The home itself is a fixer upper, ready for someone with vision to bring it back to life.

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Endless potential
• Fixer upper

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• ENDLESS POTENTIAL
• FIXER UPPER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-115 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (29.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (29.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.7% in Hermiston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#158 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Hermiston SD 8 (town): math 44% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #36 of 183 in OR (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rocky Heights Elementary School (446 students, 68% FRL); Armand Larive Middle School (726 students, 68% FRL); Hermiston High School (1,739 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 239 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 205 units permitted in Umatilla County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Umatilla County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 277 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,234 (29.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 277 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.47%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $308,865
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -35.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
220 E Beebe Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,046 (-5%)	10mo	$245,000	$234	60
277 Grouse Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+10%)	5mo	$305,000	$251	56
595 E Wilshire Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-9%)	2mo	$264,999	$263	49
634 E Ross Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,184 (+7%)	22mo	$316,000	$267	49
847 NE Laurel Springs Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,249 (+13%)	1mo	$340,825	$273	46
822 NE Jaci Ct	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,249 (+13%)	14mo	$333,279	$267	41
882 NE Laurel Springs Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,249 (+13%)	4mo	$339,900	$272	40
545 E Catherine Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,053 (-5%)	24mo	$289,900	$275	40
1623 NE 8th Pl	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,249 (+13%)	19mo	$319,900	$256	37
40 W Beebe Ave	0.49mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,232 (+11%)	22mo	$292,000	$237	35
574 E Reeder Dr	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,220 (+10%)	22mo	$259,000	$212	33
1693 NE 8th Pl	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,249 (+13%)	23mo	$313,230	$251	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-39,632
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-44,208
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97838

• Active inventory: 239
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,412 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,250/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $-115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,558

Max offer price $178,703

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2	-5% $-59	+0% $-115	+5% $-171	+10% $-228
Rent	-10% $-226	-5% $-171	+0% $-115	+5% $-59	+10% $-3
Rate	-1.0pp $-15	-0.5pp $-64	base $-115	+0.5pp $-166	+1.0pp $-219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
510 NE 4th St Unit 510 Hermiston, OR	2.0	1.0	806	$1,450	$1.80	15d	1	0.70mi
955 W Hermiston Ave Apt 4 Hermiston, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	45d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $199,000 Active 277 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 274 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 273 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 272 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 271 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 269 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 268 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 266 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 265 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 264 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 263 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 259 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 258 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 257 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 256 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 255 DOM
17. 2025-09-15
    listed $199,000 Active 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    Looking for your next project or investment? This property offers endless potential! Sitting on a spacious lot, there’s plenty of room to expand, build, or create your dream outdoor space. The home itself is a fixer upper, ready for someone with vision to bring it back to life.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,250 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,930 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$680/yr (+$57/mo · 54.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,948
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,250
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,356
• − Management: −$1,356
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$4,945
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,187
• After-tax cash flow: $-192/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hermiston SD 8
• NCES district ID: 4106300
• Math proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,109
• Composite: 44.79/100
• National rank: #5948
• State rank: #36 of 183 in OR

Livability — Hermiston

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #158
• US rank: #9212

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hermiston, OR
• City population: 27,979
• Population (ZIP): 27,979

Population outlook (Umatilla County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 76,329 people
• By 2030: 75,975 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 75,119 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 74,058 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 70,639 · -7.5%
• By 2100: 63,441 · -16.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 16% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Umatilla

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.8) · D 29.7% · R 67.5% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.1pp toward R · 2008: -22.6pp · 2024: -37.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.8 2020: R+32.0 2016: R+35.6 2012: R+28.1 2008: R+22.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -229.09%
• Current HPI: 212.1847
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-15 Listed $199,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,250 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.