302 S Robey Ave · Fritch, TX 79036

$59,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,306 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 249 Days on market

Built 1970 $45/sqft · 33% below area Est $88k · 33% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment property. This home has great bones but will need a full interior renovation including roof. Includes Large Kitchen, Family room, Fireplace, Utility Room, and Patios. Cash or Conventional loan only. Will not Pass FHA. Please feel free to submit all offers.

Key facts

• Utility room
• Large kitchen
• Family room

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• FAMILY ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• UTILITY ROOM
• PATIOS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $502 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $52k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#329 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Sanford-Fritch ISD (town): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #417 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Hutchinson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $408 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 249 days — a 12% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $51,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 249 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.43%
• DSCR: 2.62
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $88,210
• List price: $59,000
• Delta: -33.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $22,403
• Equity at exit: $8,797

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.68×
• Total profit: $60,715
• Equity at exit: $5,101

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79036

• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,151 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$74 /mo · $885/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $502

Break-even live

Break-even rent $516

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,000 Active 249 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,000 Active 248 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,000 Active 247 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,000 Active 246 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,000 Active 245 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,000 Active 244 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $59,000 Active 243 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,000 Active 240 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,000 Active 239 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $59,000 Active 238 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $59,000 Active 237 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,000 Active 234 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,000 Active 233 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,000 Active 232 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,000 Active 231 DOM
16. 2026-03-05
    status Active 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    Investment property. This home has great bones but will need a full interior renovation including roof. Includes Large Kitchen, Family room, Fireplace, Utility Room, and Patios. Cash or Conventional loan only. Will not Pass FHA. Please feel free to submit all offers.

17. 2026-02-19
    status Pending 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    Investment property. This home has great bones but will need a full interior renovation including roof. Includes Large Kitchen, Family room, Fireplace, Utility Room, and Patios. Cash or Conventional loan only. Will not Pass FHA. Please feel free to submit all offers.

18. 2026-02-16
    price $69,000 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    Investment property. This home has great bones but will need a full interior renovation including roof. Includes Large Kitchen, Family room, Fireplace, Utility Room, and Patios. Cash or Conventional loan only. Will not Pass FHA. Please feel free to submit all offers.

19. 2026-01-07
    price $72,000 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    Investment property. This home has great bones but will need a full interior renovation including roof. Includes Large Kitchen, Family room, Fireplace, Utility Room, and Patios. Cash or Conventional loan only. Will not Pass FHA. Please feel free to submit all offers.

20. 2025-09-29
    listed $79,000 Active 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    Investment property. This home has great bones but will need a full interior renovation including roof. Includes Large Kitchen, Family room, Fireplace, Utility Room, and Patios. Cash or Conventional loan only. Will not Pass FHA. Please feel free to submit all offers.

21. 2022-07-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,812
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$885
• − Insurance: −$295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,105
• − Management: −$1,105
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $5,401
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,296
• After-tax cash flow: $4,723/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sanford-Fritch ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839150
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,570
• Composite: 34.01/100
• National rank: #5314
• State rank: #417 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fritch

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #329
• US rank: #7215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fritch, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,957

Population outlook (Hutchinson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,274 people
• By 2030: 21,089 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 20,938 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 20,999 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 21,433 · +0.7%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Hutchinson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.2) · D 11.1% · R 88.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -68.9pp · 2024: -77.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.2 2020: R+76.6 2016: R+76.1 2012: R+72.7 2008: R+68.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.35%
• Current HPI: 148.285
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Relisted — AARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Pending — AARMLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $69,000 AARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $72,000 AARMLS
• 2025-09-29 Listed $79,000 AARMLS
• 2022-07-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,050 · +16.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.