1205 W Circle Dr · Pine Forest, TX 77662

$69,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Built 2019 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable Homeownership Opportunity Owning a home doesn & acirc; & euro; & trade; t have to mean stretching your budget past comfort. This welcoming manufactured home offers a realistic, affordable path to ownership Inside, you & acirc; & euro; & trade; ll find a bright, open living area that flows naturally into the kitchen, creating a space that feels comfortable and easy to live in. The kitchen is designed for real life, with ample cabinet space and room to cook, prep, and gather & acirc; & euro; & rdquo; whether it & acirc; & euro; & trade; s a busy weeknight or a slow weekend morning. The primary suite is a true retreat, & acirc;

Key facts

• Built 2019
• Listed 23 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $832 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.6% vs local median 5.3% in Pine Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#659 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Vidor ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #422 of 826 in TX (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 241 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,851 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.01%
• DSCR: 3.27
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $147,456
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
351 W Circle Dr	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,159 (+1%)	16mo	$148,000	$128	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $41,682
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.35×
• Total profit: $104,623
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77662

• Active inventory: 241
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,664 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $832

Break-even live

Break-even rent $611

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1205 W Circle Dr Unit 05 Vidor, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,295	$1.06	14d	1	0.03mi
1205 W Circle Dr Trlr 16 Vidor, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,395	$1.15	14d	1	0.03mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,900 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,900 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $69,900 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $69,900 Active
16. 2025-03-25
    historical $1,295
17. 2025-03-08
    listed $1,295
18. 2025-01-12
    historical $1,295
19. 2024-11-21
    price $1,295
20. 2024-11-14
    listed $1,495
21. 2024-11-11
    historical $1,595
22. 2024-10-18
    listed $1,595
23. 2023-12-13
    historical $1,100
24. 2023-12-13
    listed $1,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,974
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,598
• − Management: −$1,598
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $9,431
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,263
• After-tax cash flow: $7,719/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minimal cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replace air filters — Fresh air filters improve indoor air quality and can be a selling point for buyers.
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Modern lighting fixtures can brighten the space and make the home more appealing to potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace air filters — Fresh air filters improve indoor air quality and can be a selling point for buyers. ↑
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Modern lighting fixtures can brighten the space and make the home more appealing to potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vidor ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844160
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,169
• Composite: 33.95/100
• National rank: #5331
• State rank: #422 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pine Forest

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #659
• US rank: #12393

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 87,112 people
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,041
• Household income: $72,243
• Rent vs Own: 19.6% rent · 80.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 401.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,065 people
• By 2030: 89,591 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 91,982 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 93,023 · +5.6%
• By 2075: 94,871 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 88,155 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.4% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+54.3 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.46%
• Current HPI: 141.0844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+6254.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $69,900 FSBO.com
• 2025-03-25 Rental Removed $1,295 Avail
• 2025-03-08 Listed for Rent $1,295 Avail
• 2025-01-12 Rental Removed $1,295 Avail
• 2024-11-21 Price Changed $1,295 Avail
• 2024-11-14 Listed for Rent $1,495 Avail
• 2024-11-11 Rental Removed $1,595 Avail
• 2024-10-18 Listed for Rent $1,595 Avail
• 2023-12-13 Rental Removed $1,100 APPFOLIO
• 2023-12-13 Listed for Rent $1,100 APPFOLIO