808 Nicole Ln · Angola on the Lake, NY 14006

$27,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · SingleFamily · 25 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cute, cozy trailer perfect for snow birds or first time home buyers. Many updates include new oak kitchen cabinets, flooring, thermostat, new thermocouple for hot water tank and new control panel for furnace. It has alot of personality, just waiting for someone to make it their own. Neighbors are very friendly and helpful and the park is so very nice.

Key facts

• Oak kitchen cabinets
• New thermostat
• New control panel

Tags

• OAK KITCHEN CABINETS
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW THERMOSTAT
• NEW THERMOCOUPLE
• NEW CONTROL PANEL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $28k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $679 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $28k).
• Recommended offer: $27k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,000 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Evans-Brant Central School District (Lake Shore) (suburban): math 43% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #424 of 590 in NY (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $190 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $825 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($27k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $27,087 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 35.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 105.81%
• DSCR: 5.71
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,520
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
622 Lake St	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-2%)	16mo	$224,900	$234	54
8587 Larch St	0.59mi	2/1.0	912 (-7%)	10mo	$85,000	$93	52
731 Sandy Ave	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	975 (-0%)	20mo	$170,000	$174	49
712 Beach Rd	0.61mi	2/1.0	962 (-2%)	24mo	$232,000	$241	49
676 Beach Rd	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (-4%)	12mo	$155,000	$166	47
8613 Larch St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	982 (+0%)	22mo	$35,000	$36	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.04×
• Total profit: $38,803
• Equity at exit: $4,100

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.63×
• Total profit: $89,539
• Equity at exit: $2,378

Cash invested: $7,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14006

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,100 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$144
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$34 /mo · $412/yr
• Insurance: −$11
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $679

Break-even live

Break-even rent $241

Max offer price $27,500

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $698	-5% $688	+0% $679	+5% $669	+10% $660
Rent	-10% $592	-5% $636	+0% $679	+5% $722	+10% $766
Rate	-1.0pp $693	-0.5pp $686	base $679	+0.5pp $672	+1.0pp $665

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,875
• Closing costs: $825
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26 Orchard Ave Unit 1 Angola, NY	1.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	44d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $27,500 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $27,500 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $27,500 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $27,500 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $27,500 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $27,500 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $27,500 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $27,500 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $27,500 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $27,500 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $27,500 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $27,500 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $27,500 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $27,500 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $27,500 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-26
    listed $27,500 Active
17. 2016-06-24
    historical
18. 2016-03-23
    listed $9,000 Active
19. 2016-02-15
    historical
20. 2015-10-26
    status Active
21. 2015-10-14
    historical
22. 2015-08-28
    price $9,000
23. 2015-08-28
    price $8,000
24. 2015-08-17
    listed $12,500 Active
25. 2013-08-02
    listed $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,540
• − Property taxes: −$412
• − Insurance: −$138
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,056
• − Management: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$800
• Taxable income: $8,198
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,967
• After-tax cash flow: $6,180/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Evans-Brant Central School District (Lake Shore)
• NCES district ID: 3616560
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,433
• Composite: 40.89/100
• National rank: #3619
• State rank: #424 of 590 in NY

Livability — Angola on the Lake

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1000
• US rank: #19506

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Angola on the Lake, NY
• Population (ZIP): 9,354

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Asian 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Italian 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.95%
• Current HPI: 401.7461
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+175.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $27,500 FSBO.com
• 2016-06-24 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2016-03-23 Listed $9,000 WNYREIS
• 2016-02-15 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2015-10-26 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2015-10-14 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2015-08-28 Price Changed $8,000 WNYREIS
• 2015-08-28 Price Changed $9,000 WNYREIS
• 2015-08-17 Listed $12,500 WNYREIS
• 2013-08-02 Listed $10,000 WNYREIS