500 Hi Circle Cir W · Horseshoe Bay, TX 78657

$495,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,538 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1984 0.25 ac lot $195/sqft · 16% above area Est $426k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.3/15.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Positioned in the heart of Horseshoe Bay, this duplex offers flexibility for full-time living, weekend use, or investment potential. Just off FM 2147 and minutes to Hwy 71, the property is just moments from the Horseshoe Bay Resort, placing world-class golf, marina access, dining, and resort-style amenities within easy reach. Each unit features 2 bedrooms and 1.5 baths with a functional, comfortable layout. Open-concept living and dining areas flow into the kitchens, while bedrooms provide privacy for residents or guests. Natural light fills the interiors and covered back patios offer a relaxed setting to enjoy the surrounding Hill Country. Ideal as a primary residence with income potential

Key facts

• Year round boating
• Golf courses
• Lake lbj

Tags

• MARINA ACCESS
• COVERED BACK PATIOS
• LAKE LBJ
• YEAR ROUND BOATING
• WATERFRONT RECREATION
• GOLF COURSES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Horseshoe Bay P subdivision
• HOA & community: Community park

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Single-story; Accessible entrance
• Construction: Wood siding and stone exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built as residential single family
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Rain gutters; Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 2 half bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $495k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-192 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $461k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $394k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $394k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 1.0% in Horseshoe Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#625 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1223 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,943/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($91k/yr) (locally 45% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($480k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $394,300 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.66%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $426,346
• List price: $495,000
• Delta: 16.10%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-4,275
• Equity at exit: $167,578

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $71,856
• Equity at exit: $221,613

Cash invested: $138,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78657

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1223
• Price-to-rent: 20.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,943 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax from tax record: −$504 /mo · $6,053/yr
• Insurance: −$206
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$828
• Net cashflow: $-192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,185

Max offer price $461,165

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $89	-5% $-51	+0% $-192	+5% $-332	+10% $-472
Rent	-10% $-503	-5% $-347	+0% $-192	+5% $-36	+10% $120
Rate	-1.0pp $58	-0.5pp $-66	base $-192	+0.5pp $-320	+1.0pp $-450

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1.5	$3,942
Total (2 units)			$3,943

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $123,750
• Closing costs: $14,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
203 Hi Cir W Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1823	$2,595	$1.42	24d	1	0.29mi
106 Cross Bow Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	1764	$2,900	$1.64	44d	1	0.77mi
717 Indian Paint Blvd Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.5	2742	$3,650	$1.33	24d	1	0.78mi
512 Side Saddle Horseshoe Bay, TX	4.0	3.0	1850	$2,700	$1.46	44d	1	0.86mi
820 Broken Arrow Horseshoe Bay, TX	4.0	3.5	3328	$4,590	$1.38	44d	1	0.92mi
305 Fire Dance Horseshoe Bay, TX	4.0	3.0	2416	$3,800	$1.57	44d	1	0.96mi
402 Hi Stirrup Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	2038	$2,200	$1.08	44d	1	0.98mi
111 Lachite Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.5	2811	$3,800	$1.35	5d	1	1.11mi
1406 Prospect Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1998	$2,700	$1.35	4d	1	1.19mi
1314 Clayton Nolen Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1885	$2,850	$1.51	24d	1	1.23mi
102 Prairie Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	2154	$2,700	$1.25	44d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $495,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $495,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $495,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $495,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $495,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $495,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $495,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $495,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $495,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $495,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $495,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $495,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $495,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $495,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $495,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $495,000 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-04-23
    listed $495,000 Active 1161-char remark
18. 2015-06-03
    soldstatus
19. 2006-11-03
    soldstatus
20. 2005-08-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,053 · $504/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,058 · $755/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,005/yr (+$250/mo · 49.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,316
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,728
• − Property taxes: −$6,053
• − Insurance: −$2,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,785
• − Management: −$3,785
• − Depreciation: −$14,400
• Taxable loss: −$10,910
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,618
• After-tax cash flow: $320/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Llano ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827810
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,746
• Composite: 35.42/100
• National rank: #4940
• State rank: #359 of 826 in TX

Livability — Horseshoe Bay

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #625
• US rank: #11913

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horseshoe Bay, TX
• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• City population: 7,591
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,591
• Household income: $91,452
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Llano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,847 people
• By 2030: 21,350 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 22,281 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 23,173 · +11.2%
• By 2075: 25,526 · +22.4%
• By 2100: 25,866 · +24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Llano

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+60.1 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+60.4 2008: R+52.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Current HPI: 229.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $495,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2015-06-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-11-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-08-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,053 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.