24671 Merlot Dr · Lewes, DE 19958

$449,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,097 sqft · Condo public records · 104 Days on market

Built 2026 $214/sqft · 15% below area Est $583k · 23% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 2,325 square foot Carriage Home in sought after Vineyards in Lewes, Delaware. Ready now! Many upgrades (LVP flooring-Upgraded white cabinets throughout - Granite in kitchen - Stainless Steel Appliances and so much more!) - 3rd floor with Private Elevator and 1 car garage. A must see.

Key facts

• Carriage home
• Private elevator
• Parking

Tags

• CARRIAGE HOME
• PRIVATE ELEVATOR
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $449k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-705 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $354k (21.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (41.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (41.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 1.7% in Lewes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#40 in DE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Cape Henlopen School District (town): math 42% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #5 of 26 in DE (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 818 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 4,354 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (344 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sussex County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $264,531 (41.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.73%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $583,416
• List price: $449,000
• Delta: -23.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-123,647
• Equity at exit: $66,947

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.50×
• Total profit: $-188,918
• Equity at exit: $38,821

Cash invested: $125,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 70 Landlord-Friendly
• State Delaware: 70 Landlord-Friendly · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Court of Common Pleas hears L&T; moderate-paced. No state rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19958

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 818
• Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,645 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,027/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA est. from 2 same-building comps: −$168
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $-705

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,538

Max offer price $324,370

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,250
• Closing costs: $13,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20141 Riesling Ln #306 Lewes, DE	2.0	2.0	1600	$2,600	$1.62	43d	1	0.08mi
17432 Slipper Shell Way #5 Lewes, DE	3.0	2.0	1840	$2,150	$1.17	21d	1	0.73mi
17010 Minos Conaway Rd Lewes, DE	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,500	$1.56	43d	1	0.79mi
33731 Freeport Dr Lewes, DE	3.0	2.5	2300	$3,295	$1.43	13d	1	1.22mi
18 Greystone Dr Lewes, DE	3.0	2.5	2114	$2,875	$1.36	21d	1	1.27mi
33176 Denton St Lewes, DE	4.0	3.5	1800	$2,650	$1.47	43d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $449,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $449,000 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $449,000 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $449,000 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $449,000 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $449,000 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $449,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $449,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $449,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $449,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $449,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $449,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $449,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $449,000 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $449,000 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $449,000 Active 85 DOM
17. 2026-04-06
    price $449,000 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Beautiful 2,325 square foot Carriage Home in sought after Vineyards in Lewes, Delaware. Ready now! Many upgrades (LVP flooring-Upgraded white cabinets throughout - Granite in kitchen - Stainless Steel Appliances and so much more!) - 3rd floor with Private Elevator and 1 car garage. A must see.

18. 2026-03-06
    listed $455,900 Active 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Beautiful 2,325 square foot Carriage Home in sought after Vineyards in Lewes, Delaware. Ready now! Many upgrades (LVP flooring-Upgraded white cabinets throughout - Granite in kitchen - Stainless Steel Appliances and so much more!) - 3rd floor with Private Elevator and 1 car garage. A must see.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast DE · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,027 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,816 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$788/yr (+$66/mo · 76.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,744
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,151
• − Property taxes: −$1,027
• − Insurance: −$2,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,539
• − Management: −$2,539
• − HOA: −$2,016
• − Depreciation: −$13,062
• Taxable loss: −$16,836
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,041
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cape Henlopen School District
• NCES district ID: 1000170
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $60,196
• Composite: 42.47/100
• National rank: #3214
• State rank: #5 of 26 in DE

Livability — Lewes

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #11077

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sussex County · 82,708 people
• City population: 31,938
• Metro: Salisbury, MD-DE
• Population (ZIP): 31,938
• Household income: $97,197
• Rent vs Own: 16.0% rent · 84.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 545.0

Population outlook (Sussex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,853 people
• By 2030: 264,464 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 290,980 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 311,259 · +25.1%
• By 2075: 352,488 · +41.6%
• By 2100: 367,406 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sussex

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.9% · R 54.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.4pp toward R · 2008: -8.6pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+22.0 2012: R+13.0 2008: R+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -204.07%
• Current HPI: 299.0736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.77%
• Metro: Salisbury, MD-DE
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-1.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $449,000 Zillow
• 2026-03-06 Listed $455,900 Zillow

Property tax history

-29.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,027 · -29.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.