1409 Miller St · Utica, NY 13501

$99,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,315 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1920 4,688 sqft lot Est $138k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Located on Miller Street in Utica, this unique opportunity includes four parcels being sold together: 1409 Miller St, 1407 Miller St, 1411 Miller St, and 1413 Miller St. The primary structure at 1409 Miller is a two-unit multifamily home built in 1920, offering approximately 2,630 sq ft with separate utilities and strong income potential. One unit features 2 bedrooms and 1 bath, while the second offers 3 bedrooms and 1 bath, each with spacious living areas, formal dining rooms, and inviting front porches. The property includes a full attic and basement, hardwood and carpet flooring, forced-air gas heat, public water and sewer, and a blacktop driveway for ample parking. Conveniently located

Key facts

• Separate utilities
• Formal dining rooms
• 4,688 sq ft lot

Tags

• TWO UNIT MULTIFAMILY HOME
• SEPARATE UTILITIES
• STRONG INCOME POTENTIAL
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• FORMAL DINING ROOMS
• INVITING FRONT PORCHES

Property features AI

Finance

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Exterior

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Interior

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What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $856 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.7% vs local median 7.7% in Utica — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#104 in NY, #1,589 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• Utica City School District (urban): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #562 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $99k implies a 1138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $96,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.07%
• DSCR: 2.65
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $138,075
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1517 Miller St	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,364 (+4%)	0mo	$60,000	$44	77
1204 Neilson St	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,400 (+6%)	12mo	$62,000	$44	69
1525 Saint Vincent St	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,320 (+0%)	15mo	$195,700	$148	64
1555 Neilson	0.28mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,392 (+6%)	10mo	$145,000	$104	64
1613 Clementian St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,336 (+2%)	5mo	$140,000	$105	62
1653 Taylor Ave	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,300 (-1%)	10mo	$137,000	$105	62
1657 Saint Jane Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,267 (-4%)	5mo	$189,900	$150	54
19 Genesee Ct #19	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (-4%)	4mo	$75,000	$60	51
1650 Saint Agnes Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,196 (-9%)	8mo	$179,900	$150	48
407 Pleasant St	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,148 (-13%)	9mo	$190,000	$166	41
1545 Mohawk St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,440 (+10%)	17mo	$170,000	$118	37
1036 Morris St	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,504 (+14%)	11mo	$149,400	$99	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.91×
• Total profit: $108,421
• Equity at exit: $89,187

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.4%
• Equity multiple: 10.97×
• Total profit: $276,332
• Equity at exit: $192,335

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13501

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,826 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $313/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $856

Break-even live

Break-even rent $742

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $912	-5% $884	+0% $856	+5% $828	+10% $800
Rent	-10% $712	-5% $784	+0% $856	+5% $928	+10% $1,001
Rate	-1.0pp $906	-0.5pp $881	base $856	+0.5pp $831	+1.0pp $805

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1124 Dudley Ave Unit 1 Utica, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	44d	1	0.37mi
11 Noyes St Unit 4 Utica, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,125	$1.12	44d	1	0.61mi
239 Genesee St Utica, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1200	$2,700	$2.25	44d	15	0.64mi
221 Elizabeth St #2 Utica, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	45d	1	0.76mi
807 Eagle St Utica, NY	3.0	1.0	1526	$1,300	$0.85	44d	1	0.85mi
1804 Storrs Ave Utica, NY	3.0	1.5	1633	$3,000	$1.84	44d	1	0.96mi
119 Hotel St Utica, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1053	$2,300	$2.18	44d	14	0.99mi
1224 Whitesboro St Unit 1 Utica, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,125	$1.02	44d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-11
   listed $99,000 Active
4. 1996-12-06
   soldstatus $8,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $313 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $993 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$680/yr (+$57/mo · 217.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,915
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$313
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,753
• − Management: −$1,753
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $9,175
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,202
• After-tax cash flow: $8,073/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Utica City School District
• NCES district ID: 3629370
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $31,834
• Composite: 29.01/100
• National rank: #6613
• State rank: #562 of 590 in NY

Livability — Utica

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #1589

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Utica, NY
• County: Oneida County · 89,710 people
• City population: 72,968
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• Population (ZIP): 38,931
• Household income: $52,548
• Rent vs Own: 49.2% rent · 50.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2251.0

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 14% Asian 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: American 8% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 11% Russian/Polish/Slavic 10% Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.28%
• Current HPI: 382.3726
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1137.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-09 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $99,000 CNYIS
• 1996-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $313 · +33.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.