3730 Bayou Rd · Sacramento, CA 95835

$460,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,917 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2017 2,875 sqft lot Est $544k · 16% under $146/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this gorgeous 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom home in the desirable Westlake Community! This home offers the best floor plan in the community with a full bedroom and bathroom downstairs, making it ideal for guests, roommates, or multi-generational living. Inside, you'll find a bright white kitchen with granite countertops, a center island, luxury vinyl plank flooring downstairs, carpet upstairs, an upstairs laundry room, and a whole house fan for added comfort. Enjoy the low-maintenance patio yard, attached 2-car garage, and a prime location just 10 minutes from Sacramento International Airport and 15 minutes from Downtown Sacramento. A great home in a great neighborhood and one of the bes

Key facts

• Bright white kitchen
• Granite countertops
• Center island

Tags

• FULL BATHROOM DOWNSTAIRS
• BRIGHT WHITE KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CENTER ISLAND
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• UPSTAIRS LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory association with monthly fee of $146 covering grounds maintenance; Association provides additional community amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage facing rear; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family detached residence in a planned unit development; Built in 2017; 2-story
• Construction: Tile roof
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Regular-shaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Free-standing electric range; Pantry cabinet; Kitchen island; Tile countertops
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (upper level; includes master bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; Master bath with shower stall(s), double sinks, tub, and walk-in closet; Other baths with shower stall(s), double sinks, and tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Great room living area; Loft; Formal dining area; Pantry cabinet; Kitchen island; Tile countertops; Street-level entrance
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on upper floor (inside room); 220-volt outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $460k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-692 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $338k (26.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $330k (28.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $330k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Natomas Unified (urban): math 33% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #155 of 517 in CA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: H. Allen Hight Elementary (802 students, 59% FRL); Natomas Middle (662 students, 65% FRL); Inderkum High (math 39% / reading 66%, grade C-, #289 of 1,170 statewide, top 25%, 2,266 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 406 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$73k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 14503% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A99 (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $330,259 (28.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.28%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $544,428
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3733 Rynders Way	0.01mi	4/2.5	2,002 (+4%)	8mo	$526,000	$263	84
1472 Jeannie Way	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,034 (+6%)	1mo	$600,000	$295	76
8150 Gardini Dr	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,175 (+14%)	2mo	$787,515	$362	63
3775 Rynders Way	0.06mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,660 (-13%)	8mo	$460,000	$277	61
17 Amagansett Pl	0.63mi	4/2.5	1,992 (+4%)	8mo	$520,000	$261	56
10 Carova Beach Pl	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,813 (-5%)	4mo	$509,000	$281	54
4833 Verena Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,958 (+2%)	7mo	$635,000	$324	53
341 Anjou Cir	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,003 (+4%)	1mo	$534,000	$267	51
3742 Haymaker Way	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,797 (-6%)	4mo	$570,000	$317	48
11 Amagansett Pl	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,708 (-11%)	7mo	$484,900	$284	40
12 Mantauk Point Pl	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,722 (-10%)	12mo	$519,000	$301	39
5024 Trouville	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,187 (+14%)	11mo	$538,000	$246	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.18% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $176,011
• Equity at exit: $387,328

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.18×
• Total profit: $537,913
• Equity at exit: $808,058

Cash invested: $128,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95835

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 406
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,303 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,412
• Tax from tax record: −$426 /mo · $5,107/yr
• Insurance: −$192
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$146
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$694
• Net cashflow: $-692

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,178

Max offer price $337,814

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-431	-5% $-561	+0% $-692	+5% $-822	+10% $-952
Rent	-10% $-953	-5% $-822	+0% $-692	+5% $-561	+10% $-431
Rate	-1.0pp $-460	-0.5pp $-575	base $-692	+0.5pp $-811	+1.0pp $-932

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $115,000
• Closing costs: $13,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3712 Bayou Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1660	$4,000	$2.41	4d	1	0.04mi
3766 Bayou Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1660	$2,675	$1.61	45d	1	0.05mi
3530 Callison Dr Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2007	$3,000	$1.49	0d	1	0.20mi
5301 E Commerce Way #58104 Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1315	$2,900	$2.21	3d	1	0.56mi
5301 E Commerce Way #34103 Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1774	$3,000	$1.69	0d	1	0.56mi
5301 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1334	$2,662	$2.00	25d	2	0.56mi
5301 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1334	$2,648	$1.98	18d	3	0.56mi
5050 Trouville Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1583	$2,950	$1.86	45d	1	0.59mi
5421 Shennecock Way Unit 1 Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2561	$3,000	$1.17	12d	1	0.65mi
3606 Damora Ave Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.5	2362	$3,900	$1.65	45d	1	0.71mi
11 Long Warf Pl Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1708	$2,795	$1.64	0d	1	0.78mi
620 Candela Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1681	$2,595	$1.54	45d	1	0.82mi
789 Greg Thatch Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,990	$1.50	4d	1	0.84mi
3396 Shaker Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1815	$3,250	$1.79	13d	1	0.85mi
301 Candela Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1541	$2,750	$1.78	16d	1	0.86mi
260 Wapello Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1697	$2,650	$1.56	9d	1	0.91mi
3301 N Park Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1678	$2,672	$1.59	45d	2	0.94mi
570 Wapello Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1697	$3,000	$1.77	45d	1	0.97mi
30 Sheen Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1652	$2,850	$1.73	45d	1	1.03mi
5040 Kankakee Dr Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.0	2454	$2,895	$1.18	4d	1	1.05mi
100 Picasso Cir Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2413	$3,950	$1.64	4d	1	1.08mi
4236 Bellwether Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2282	$3,300	$1.45	0d	1	1.16mi
3044 Enchanted Walk Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1351	$2,300	$1.70	0d	1	1.18mi
130 Penhow Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1618	$2,400	$1.48	0d	1	1.19mi
4355 Adriatic Sea Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1763	$2,800	$1.59	0d	1	1.29mi
17 Hertford Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1511	$2,450	$1.62	25d	1	1.35mi
4800 Kokomo Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1229	$3,819	$3.11	0d	24	1.40mi
4237 Malta Island St Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1954	$2,895	$1.48	45d	1	1.45mi
4470 Saone Walk Sacramento, CA	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1846	$2,950	$1.60	0d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $146 · $1,752/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $460,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $460,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $460,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $460,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $460,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $460,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $460,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,107 · $426/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,107 · $426/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A99 · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,631
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,767
• − Property taxes: −$5,107
• − Insurance: −$3,802
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,170
• − Management: −$3,170
• − HOA: −$1,752
• − Depreciation: −$13,382
• Taxable loss: −$16,520
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,965
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,335/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natomas Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600036
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $67,969
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3457
• State rank: #155 of 517 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,004
• Household income: $114,468
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1234.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 30% White 29% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.18%
• Current HPI: 271.4823
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-7.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-22 Rental Removed $2,900 RENTLY
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $2,900 RENTLY
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $3,000 RENTLY
• 2025-07-13 Listed for Rent $3,150 RENTLY
• 2025-07-13 Rental Removed $3,150 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-05-23 Listed for Rent $3,150 TENANTTURNER2

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,107 · -8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.