419 Cambridge Dr · Bismarck, ND 58504

$24,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured · 2 Days on market

Built 1980 Est $26k · 6% under $636/mo HOA · 33% of rent ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated home in Tatley Meadows Park - features master bedroom suite with garden tub and walk-in closet. Updates include: counters and back splash in kitchen, light fixtures, flooring and new heat tape. Spacious yard has a newly painted 8x12 shed and covered deck. Park approval is required.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Large backyard
• 8x12 storage shed

Tags

• GARDEN TUB
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• WRAPAROUND DECK
• LARGE BACKYARD
• MATURE TREES
• 8X12 STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Monthly association fee amount: $636
• HOA & community: Has homeowners association; Community amenities include a playground and pool; Monthly association fee; Association fee covers trash and water

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Driveway; Concrete surface; No garage (see remarks)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Residential property; Rectangular lot; Lot is rented
• Construction: Metal siding
• Exterior features: Deck; Enclosed deck/porch; Porch; Shed(s); No other exterior features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 9 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; See remarks for additional interior details
• Laundry & utility: No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $726 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $25k).
• Cap rate 41.3% vs local median 3.1% in Bismarck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in ND, #2,213 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $172 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $747 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent.

Recommended offer $24,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 41.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 125.04%
• DSCR: 6.56
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $26,460
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
522 Sherwood Ln	0.11mi	3/1.0	952 (-3%)	6mo	$27,000	$28	82
305 Dover Dr	0.20mi	3/1.5	980 (0%)	12mo	$8,000	$8	79
528 Sherwood Ln	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,064 (+9%)	8mo	$8,000	$8	63
606 Yorkshire Ln	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (0%)	22mo	$26,000	$27	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.06×
• Total profit: $42,277
• Equity at exit: $3,713

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.85×
• Total profit: $96,558
• Equity at exit: $2,153

Cash invested: $6,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58504

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,921 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$14 /mo · $174/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$636
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $726

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,002

Max offer price $24,900

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,225
• Closing costs: $747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
119 Irvine Loop Bismarck, ND	3.0	1.0–2.0	974	$2,400	$2.46	21d	1	0.17mi
100 Santa Fe Ave Unit 1204 Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.0	976	$1,525	$1.56	21d	1	0.22mi
100 Santa Fe Ave Unit 2210 Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.0	1039	$1,595	$1.54	21d	1	0.22mi
2900 Kamrose Dr Bismarck, ND	3.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$2,580	$2.48	21d	33	0.32mi
109 W Burleigh Ave Bismarck, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$1,395	$1.33	21d	1	0.68mi
2130 S 12th St Bismarck, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1152	$1,980	$1.72	21d	12	1.17mi
2020 S 12th St Bismarck, ND	3.0	1.0–2.0	1185	$1,955	$1.65	21d	19	1.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $636 · $7,632/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $24,900 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $24,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $174 · $14/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $244 · $20/mo
• Expected delta: +$70/yr (+$6/mo · 40.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,057
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,395
• − Property taxes: −$174
• − Insurance: −$124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,845
• − Management: −$1,845
• − HOA: −$7,632
• − Depreciation: −$724
• Taxable income: $9,318
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,236
• After-tax cash flow: $6,481/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck 1
• NCES district ID: 3800014
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,649
• Composite: 36.76/100
• National rank: #4577
• State rank: #25 of 53 in ND

Livability — Bismarck

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #2213

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bismarck, ND
• County: Burleigh County · 97,300 people
• City population: 97,300
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 30,212
• Household income: $85,637
• Rent vs Own: 25.6% rent · 74.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Burleigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,359 people
• By 2030: 133,047 · +11.5%
• By 2040: 161,545 · +35.3%
• By 2050: 191,960 · +60.8%
• By 2075: 274,569 · +130.0%
• By 2100: 350,910 · +194.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Native American 8% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Scotch-Irish 5% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Burleigh

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.5% · R 70.7% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.6pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+40.2 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.70%
• Current HPI: 210.0651
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.81%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

-26.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $24,900 GNMLS
• 2024-09-10 Price Changed $28,000 GNMLS
• 2024-08-23 Relisted — GNMLS
• 2024-08-20 Pending — GNMLS
• 2024-08-08 Listed $29,900 GNMLS
• 2018-01-12 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 2017-02-18 Listed $22,900 GNMLS
• 2017-02-10 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 2016-12-27 Listed $33,900 GNMLS