1309 Thorn St · Utica, NY 13502

$149,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1920 4,000 sqft lot Est $131k · 15% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.8/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 4,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 33 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $283 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#104 in NY, #1,589 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• Utica City School District (urban): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #562 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $150k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $145,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.09%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $130,560
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1317 Butternut St	0.07mi	3/1.0	912 (-5%)	7mo	$183,000	$201	83
1222 Oswego St	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,032 (+8%)	3mo	$125,500	$122	78
1570 Delaware Ave	0.03mi	3/2.0	960 (0%)	20mo	$207,000	$216	78
1212 Oak St	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	973 (+1%)	6mo	$26,000	$27	78
1206 Oak St	0.21mi	3/1.0	966 (+1%)	16mo	$143,100	$148	76
1325 Oswego St	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,008 (+5%)	15mo	$137,000	$136	70
1302 Noyes St	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,026 (+7%)	14mo	$138,500	$135	63
1201 Maple St	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	988 (+3%)	17mo	$75,000	$76	60
1413 Old Burrstone Rd	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,080 (+12%)	1mo	$236,900	$219	57
920 Arnold Ave	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (+8%)	10mo	$180,000	$173	43
1013 Brayton Park Pl	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,074 (+12%)	16mo	$127,000	$118	37
1028 Churchill Ave	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,066 (+11%)	21mo	$135,000	$127	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-6,276
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $17,682
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13502

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,584 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,433/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $283

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,225

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1503 Fox Pl Utica, NY	3.0	1.0	1119	$2,000	$1.79	43d	1	0.55mi
11 Noyes St Unit 4 Utica, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,125	$1.12	43d	1	0.64mi
1224 Whitesboro St Unit 1 Utica, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,125	$1.02	43d	1	0.79mi
4 1st St Yorkville, NY	3.0	1.0	888	$2,100	$2.36	43d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   listed $149,900 Active
3. 2025-09-25
   price $104,500
4. 2025-06-13
   listed $105,000 Active
5. 2025-05-29
   historical
6. 2025-01-31
   soldstatus $75,000
7. 2024-12-04
   listed $119,000 Active
8. 1996-05-05
   historical
9. 1995-05-05
   listed $44,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,433 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,983 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$550/yr (+$46/mo · 38.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,004
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,433
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,520
• − Management: −$1,520
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $1,023
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$246
• After-tax cash flow: $3,152/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Utica City School District
• NCES district ID: 3629370
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $31,834
• Composite: 29.01/100
• National rank: #6613
• State rank: #562 of 590 in NY

Livability — Utica

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #1589

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Utica, NY
• County: Oneida County · 89,710 people
• City population: 72,968
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• Population (ZIP): 34,037
• Household income: $57,835
• Rent vs Own: 40.8% rent · 59.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1604.0

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 3% American 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Philippines, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.76%
• Current HPI: 368.3955
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+233.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $149,900 CNYIS
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $104,500 CNYIS
• 2025-06-13 Listed $105,000 CNYIS
• 2025-05-29 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2025-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2024-12-04 Listed $119,000 CNYIS
• 1996-05-05 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 1995-05-05 Listed $44,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,433 · +10.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.