1638 Calavo Rd #63 · Fallbrook, CA 92028

$318,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,284 sqft · Manufactured public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1998 Est $344k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fixer upper home in Sunshine View Estates home needs flooring, home needs home needs TLC come with a vision for you to make it your own!

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1998
• Listed 49 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area source: seller; Lot characterized as 0-1 unit per acre; Elevation units listed in feet; Parcel number on file
• HOA & community: Land lease of $860 (land lease community / park: Sunshine Park Estates)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Mobile home (double-wide); Mobile home remains on property; Single-story; Entry on level 1
• Construction: Mobile width 23 ft; Mobile length 56 ft; Year built source: public records
• Exterior features: Community pool; Located in a rural community

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Gas range; Dishwasher; Quartz countertops
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms located on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central furnace; Fireplace
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Front door entry; Single-level home (one story); All bedrooms on ground level
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry in a dedicated room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $769 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $319k).
• Recommended offer: $309k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.4% in Fallbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#1,364 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: schools D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Fallbrook Union High (suburban): math 32% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #183 of 517 in CA (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 345 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $180k; list at $319k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $309,333 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.34%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $344,112
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1638 Calavo Rd #74	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,231 (-4%)	17mo	$329,900	$268	79

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-12,646
• Equity at exit: $47,549

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $13,536
• Equity at exit: $27,573

Cash invested: $89,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92028

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 345
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,349 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,672
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $853/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$703
• Net cashflow: $769

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,375

Max offer price $318,900

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,725
• Closing costs: $9,567
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1732 Woodbrook Ln Fallbrook, CA	2.0	2.0	1367	$2,950	$2.16	1d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $318,900 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $318,900 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $318,900 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $318,900 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $318,900 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $318,900 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $318,900 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $318,900 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $318,900 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $318,900 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $318,900 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $318,900 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $318,900 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $318,900 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    listed $318,900 Active
16. 2026-03-12
    soldstatus $180,000 Closed Sale 136-char remark

    Show marketing remark (136 chars)

    Fixer upper home in Sunshine View Estates home needs flooring, home needs home needs TLC come with a vision for you to make it your own!

17. 2026-02-26
    status Pending Sale 136-char remark

    Show marketing remark (136 chars)

    Fixer upper home in Sunshine View Estates home needs flooring, home needs home needs TLC come with a vision for you to make it your own!

18. 2026-02-19
    price $235,000 136-char remark

    Show marketing remark (136 chars)

    Fixer upper home in Sunshine View Estates home needs flooring, home needs home needs TLC come with a vision for you to make it your own!

19. 2026-01-27
    listed $265,000 Active 136-char remark

    Show marketing remark (136 chars)

    Fixer upper home in Sunshine View Estates home needs flooring, home needs home needs TLC come with a vision for you to make it your own!

20. 2010-09-24
    historical
21. 2010-09-23
    historical
22. 2010-03-24
    listed $72,000 Active
23. 2010-03-23
    listed $72,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $853 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,424 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,571/yr (+$131/mo · 184.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,186
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,863
• − Property taxes: −$853
• − Insurance: −$1,594
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,215
• − Management: −$3,215
• − Depreciation: −$9,277
• Taxable income: $4,168
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,000
• After-tax cash flow: $8,231/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fallbrook Union High
• NCES district ID: 0613530
• Math proficiency: 32% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $56,644
• Composite: 39.17/100
• National rank: #4025
• State rank: #183 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fallbrook

• Score: 42/100
• State rank: #1364
• US rank: #27057

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment B- Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fallbrook, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 52,227
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 52,227
• Household income: $111,290
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1384.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 21% Asian 4% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 29% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -533.50%
• Current HPI: 320.7162
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.35%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+342.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $318,900 CRMLS
• 2026-03-12 Sold (MLS) $180,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-26 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $235,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $265,000 CRMLS
• 2010-09-24 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2010-09-23 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2010-03-24 Listed $72,000 SDMLS
• 2010-03-23 Listed $72,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2013): $853 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.