2523 E Contention Mine Rd #41 · Phoenix, AZ 85032

$58,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · Manufactured · 129 Days on market

Built 1996 Good condition 1,600 sqft lot $57/sqft · 27% below area Est $80k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful home in adult (45 or older) Park. Park rental is only $475 a month in clean, well maintained Park with many amenities. This home is totally remodeled with all new flooring, new cabinets, Granite countertops, paint and much more. It comes with newer furnishings throughout. It has a large master bedroom with walk in closet, a full bath with tub/shower on one end, a beautiful kitchen with pantry, built in microwave, dishwasher, disposal etc... Then a roomy Livingroom area , another full bathroom and 2nd bedroom on other side of house. It has a laundry area and a large shaded patio and carport complete with BBQ grill and a delicious naval orange tree.

Key facts

• Granite countertops
• Large shaded patio
• Naval orange tree

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE SHADED PATIO
• NAVAL ORANGE TREE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $58k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $903 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $58k).
• Recommended offer: $51k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.0% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $401 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $51,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.70%
• DSCR: 3.97
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $80,000
• List price: $58,000
• Delta: -27.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18026 N Cave Creek Rd #125	0.39mi	2/1.0	960 (-6%)	1mo	$35,000	$36	66
18026 N Cave Creek Rd #16	0.39mi	2/1.0	952 (-7%)	3mo	$49,000	$51	64
2140 E Michigan Ave #35	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	990 (-3%)	1mo	$98,000	$99	63
18240 N 21st Dr #86	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,024 (0%)	15mo	$75,000	$73	56
1939 E Libby St	0.65mi	2/2.0	980 (-4%)	13mo	$175,000	$179	52
2644 E Kelton Ln	0.61mi	2/1.8	932 (-9%)	14mo	$225,900	$242	44
1926 E Grovers Ave	0.68mi	2/2.0	924 (-10%)	11mo	$260,000	$281	43
17827 N 19th St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,096 (+7%)	12mo	$130,000	$119	40
2034 E Charleston Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,156 (+13%)	13mo	$276,000	$239	38
1919 E Libby St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	898 (-12%)	23mo	$110,000	$122	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 62.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.67×
• Total profit: $43,284
• Equity at exit: $8,648

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.74×
• Total profit: $93,136
• Equity at exit: $5,015

Cash invested: $16,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85032

• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,650 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$304
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$72 /mo · $870/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $903

Break-even live

Break-even rent $507

Max offer price $58,000

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $943	-5% $923	+0% $903	+5% $883	+10% $863
Rent	-10% $772	-5% $838	+0% $903	+5% $968	+10% $1,033
Rate	-1.0pp $932	-0.5pp $917	base $903	+0.5pp $888	+1.0pp $872

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,500
• Closing costs: $1,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17365 N Cave Creek Rd #124 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1468	$2,299	$1.57	16d	1	0.12mi
17602 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	650	$1,625	$2.50	0d	11	0.17mi
17150 N 23rd St #135 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1186	$1,900	$1.60	15d	1	0.24mi
17150 N 23rd St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1172	$1,712	$1.46	5d	2	0.29mi
17150 N 23rd St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1172	$1,712	$1.46	6d	2	0.29mi
2150 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1310	$1,945	$1.48	0d	2	0.35mi
2602 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,100	$1.47	25d	1	0.40mi
2554 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1118	$2,750	$2.46	25d	1	0.43mi
2077 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	720	$1,295	$1.80	25d	1	0.45mi
18202 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	722	$1,148	$1.59	5d	7	0.46mi
2067 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	25d	1	0.47mi
16635 N Cave Creek Rd #214 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1134	$1,300	$1.15	20d	1	0.47mi
16801 N 26th St Apt 17 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,195	$1.49	25d	1	0.48mi
16627 N 25th St Unit 23 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	765	$1,145	$1.50	25d	1	0.50mi
16602 N 25th St #109 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1136	$1,224	$1.08	25d	1	0.50mi
16602 N 25th St #109 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1136	$1,224	$1.08	21d	1	0.50mi
2712 E Juniper Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1435	$1,435	$1.00	6d	1	0.53mi
2214 E Aire Libre Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1284	$2,080	$1.62	6d	1	0.57mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	786	$3,000	$3.81	0d	8	0.59mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	786	$3,000	$3.81	5d	9	0.59mi
1302 E Aire Libre Ave Unit 104 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,850	$1.48	25d	1	0.60mi
2755 E Michigan Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1316	$2,700	$2.05	18d	1	0.62mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$1,159	$1.66	25d	1	0.65mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	575	$942	$1.64	5d	6	0.65mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$942	$1.35	22d	1	0.65mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Apt 310 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$942	$1.35	25d	1	0.65mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Unit 107 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$829	$1.18	25d	1	0.65mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Unit 6 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	748	$1,250	$1.67	8d	1	0.65mi
2311 E Union Hills Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	835	$1,681	$2.01	0d	11	0.66mi
2221 E Union Hills Dr #158 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1332	$2,100	$1.58	19d	1	0.66mi
16816 N 29th St Apt 202 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	8d	1	0.68mi
2854 E Phelps Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,811	$1.22	22d	1	0.70mi
1920 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1391	$1,695	$1.22	15d	5	0.72mi
1920 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1391	$1,795	$1.29	3d	3	0.72mi
1920 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1391	$1,800	$1.29	8d	4	0.72mi
16815 N 29th St Apt 146 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$999	$1.18	25d	1	0.73mi
16815 N 29th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,199	$1.41	25d	1	0.75mi
16815 N 29th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.23	17d	3	0.75mi
1814 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,663	$1.68	0d	11	0.78mi
18660 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	961	$1,590	$1.65	0d	11	0.78mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $58,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $58,000 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $58,000 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $58,000 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $58,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $58,000 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $58,000 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $58,000 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $58,000 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $58,000 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $58,000 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $58,000 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $58,000 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $58,000 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $58,000 Active 108 DOM
16. 2026-02-12
    listed $62,000 Active 665-char remark

    Show marketing remark (665 chars)

    Beautiful home in adult (45 or older) Park. Park rental is only $475 a month in clean, well maintained Park with many amenities. This home is totally remodeled with all new flooring, new cabinets, Granite countertops, paint and much more. It comes with newer furnishings throughout. It has a large master bedroom with walk in closet, a full bath with tub/shower on one end, a beautiful kitchen with pantry, built in microwave, dishwasher, disposal etc... Then a roomy Livingroom area , another full bathroom and 2nd bedroom on other side of house. It has a laundry area and a large shaded patio and carport complete with BBQ grill and a delicious naval orange tree.

17. 2025-08-19
    historical
18. 2025-07-28
    listed $55,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,249
• − Property taxes: −$870
• − Insurance: −$290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,584
• − Management: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$1,687
• Taxable income: $10,536
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,529
• After-tax cash flow: $8,304/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with recent renovations, making it a move-in ready property with good resale and rental potential.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior — A fresh coat of paint can significantly enhance the curb appeal and value of the home.
• Rental Replace the carpet — Replacing the carpet with a more modern or durable option can attract renters and increase rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior — A fresh coat of paint can significantly enhance the curb appeal and value of the home. ↑
• Rental Replace the carpet — Replacing the carpet with a more modern or durable option can attract renters and increase rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 70,839
• Household income: $78,643
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2887.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 17% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 21% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -488.65%
• Current HPI: 339.4181
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.46%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+12.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-12 Listed $62,000 ARMLS
• 2025-08-19 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-07-28 Listed $55,000 ARMLS