1500 W Matlock Ave · Aransas Pass, TX 78336

$63,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 640 sqft · Manufactured public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2015

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful, well-maintained 2006 Palm Harbor & acirc; & euro; & oelig; Windsor & acirc; & euro; � model offering 1,216 sq ft in the desirable Gaslight Village 55+ community, 1500 W. Matlock, Aransas Pass. This spacious 16 & acirc; & euro; & trade; x 76 & acirc; & euro; & trade; home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, durable hardboard siding, all-house PEX plumbing, Therma Seal insulation with 2x6 walls, and a heavy vapor barrier underneath. Inside you & acirc; & euro; & trade; ll find an open, functional layout with 5 ceiling fans and new light fixtures throughout. Home includes a Frigidaire front-load washer and dryer and a Bosch d

Key facts

• Hardboard siding
• Built 2015
• Listed 37 days

Tags

• HARDBOARD SIDING
• ALL-HOUSE PEX PLUMBING
• THERMA SEAL INSULATION
• OPEN FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• FRIGIDAIRE FRONT-LOAD WASHER
• BOSCH DELUXE DISHWASHER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $63k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $683 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $63k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.3% vs local median 4.6% in Aransas Pass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#253 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Aransas Pass ISD (town): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #597 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 275 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $436 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,110 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.50%
• DSCR: 3.07
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $33,336
• Equity at exit: $9,394

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.83×
• Total profit: $85,135
• Equity at exit: $5,447

Cash invested: $17,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78336

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 275
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$330
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $791/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $683

Break-even live

Break-even rent $535

Max offer price $63,000

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,750
• Closing costs: $1,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
113 Gillespie Ln Aransas Pass, TX	2.0	1.0	500	$1,400	$2.80	14d	1	0.77mi
121 Gillespie Ln Aransas Pass, TX	2.0	1.0	500	$1,400	$2.80	14d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $63,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $63,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $63,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $63,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $63,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $63,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $63,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $63,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $63,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $63,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $63,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $63,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $63,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $63,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $63,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $63,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $63,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $791 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,153 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$362/yr (+$30/mo · 45.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,529
• − Property taxes: −$791
• − Insurance: −$315
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,344
• − Management: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$1,833
• Taxable income: $7,645
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,835
• After-tax cash flow: $6,367/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aransas Pass ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808580
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,869
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7191
• State rank: #597 of 826 in TX

Livability — Aransas Pass

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #253
• US rank: #5980

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aransas Pass, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,146

Population outlook (San Patricio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,538 people
• By 2030: 79,575 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 87,670 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 96,107 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 117,984 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 130,010 · +72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 21% Asian 2% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Patricio

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.4% · R 67.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.6pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+16.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.56%
• Current HPI: 187.8443
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $63,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $791 · +28.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.