Annabelle 1644 Plan · Dothan, AL 36301

$279,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,644 sqft · SingleFamily · 102 Days on market

Excellent condition $16/mo HOA

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Annabelle 1644 is a thoughtfully designed single-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. The open-concept layout is filled with natural light, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining alike. A welcoming covered front porch greets you at arrival, while a covered back porch extends your living space outdoors - perfect for relaxing or hosting.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Covered back porch
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• COVERED BACK PORCH
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT

🏗️ New construction. The $279,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $296,513.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $621 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).
• Recommended offer: $255k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.3% in Dothan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#146 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Dothan City (urban): math 19% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #73 of 129 in AL (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Selma Street Elementary School (math 13% / reading 33%, grade F, #431 of 627 statewide, top 69%, 413 students, 93% FRL); Dothan Preparatory Academy (math 12% / reading 38%, grade F, #163 of 257 statewide, top 64%, 1,133 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 59% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 538 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 463 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,400/mo this rent would consume 83% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $254,709 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.97%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,513
• List price: $279,900
• Delta: -5.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
281 S Bend Ave	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,640 (-0%)	0mo	$277,900	$169	90
291 S Bend Ave	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,532 (-7%)	1mo	$262,900	$172	78
317 S Bend Ave	0.12mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,742 (+6%)	0mo	$284,900	$164	77
301 S Bend Ave	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-13%)	3mo	$250,000	$174	67
309 S Bend Ave	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-13%)	3mo	$249,900	$174	66
213 Foxfire Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,672 (+2%)	4mo	$265,000	$158	64
215 Foxfire Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-3%)	10mo	$265,000	$166	57
109 Talquin Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (-0%)	13mo	$244,000	$149	53
106 Needle Pne	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,836 (+12%)	2mo	$185,000	$101	45
206 Greenbriar Dr	0.63mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,737 (+6%)	20mo	$243,000	$140	38
101 Talquin Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,755 (+7%)	18mo	$262,500	$150	38
4101 Woodberry Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,886 (+15%)	18mo	$195,000	$103	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-8,443
• Equity at exit: $44,211

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $43,815
• Equity at exit: $25,637

Cash invested: $83,024 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 14 active · 10 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.5 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $278,900 ($170/sqft)
• Median days on market: 107 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 36301

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Active inventory: 538
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,555
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$371 /mo · $4,448/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$714
• Net cashflow: $621

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,614

Max offer price $296,513

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $826	-5% $723	+0% $621	+5% $518	+10% $416
Rent	-10% $352	-5% $487	+0% $621	+5% $755	+10% $889
Rate	-1.0pp $770	-0.5pp $696	base $621	+0.5pp $544	+1.0pp $466

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,128
• Closing costs: $8,895
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1605 Ivy Dr Dothan, AL	3.0	2.0	1888	$3,400	$1.80	93d	1	1.17mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveList price: $279,900
• HOA & community: HOA fee approximately $16.67

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric serviceCentral HVAC (heat pump and central air)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Annabelle 1644)Living area approximately 1,644
• Exterior features: Metal and asphalt roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pumpCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan model Annabelle 1644 (new construction plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $279,900 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $279,900 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $279,900 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $279,900 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $279,900 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $279,900 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $279,900 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $279,900 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $279,900 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $279,900 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $279,900 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $279,900 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $279,900 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $279,900 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-07-16
    days on market $279,900 Active 79 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $279,900 Active 78 DOM
17. 2026-07-14
    days on market $279,900 Active 77 DOM
18. 2026-07-13
    days on market $279,900 Active 76 DOM
19. 2026-07-12
    days on market $279,900 Active 75 DOM
20. 2026-07-11
    days on market $279,900 Active 74 DOM
21. 2026-07-10
    days on market $279,900 Active 73 DOM
22. 2026-07-09
    days on market $279,900 Active 72 DOM
23. 2026-07-08
    days on market $279,900 Active 71 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $279,900 Active 70 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $279,900 Active 69 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $279,900 Active 68 DOM
27. 2026-07-04
    days on market $279,900 Active 67 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $279,900 Active 66 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $279,900 Active 65 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $279,900 Active 64 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $279,900 Active 63 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $279,900 Active 62 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $279,900 Active 61 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $279,900 Active 60 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $279,900 Active 59 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $279,900 Active 58 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $279,900 Active 55 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $279,900 Active 54 DOM
39. 2026-06-19
    days on market $279,900 Active 52 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $279,900 Active 51 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $279,900 Active 50 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $279,900 Active 49 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $279,900 Active 48 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $279,900 Active 46 DOM
45. 2026-06-12
    days on market $279,900 Active 45 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $279,900 Active 42 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $279,900 Active 41 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,900 Active 40 DOM
49. 2026-06-05
    days on market $279,900 Active 37 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,900 Active 36 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,609
• − Property taxes: −$4,448
• − Insurance: −$1,483
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,264
• − Management: −$3,264
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$8,626
• Taxable income: $2,915
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$700
• After-tax cash flow: $6,751/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Annabelle 1644 home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract more renters and increase rental income. ↑
• Both Window treatments — Window treatments can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both Flooring maintenance — Regular maintenance can keep the flooring in good condition and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Interior lighting — Improved lighting can make the home more inviting and increase its value. ↑
• Both Landscaping maintenance — Regular maintenance can keep the landscaping looking its best and increase the home's value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 23/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Selma Street Elementary School F AL #431/627 Nat'l #31,702/41,679 High Carver 9th Grade Academy

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dothan City
• NCES district ID: 0101230
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,279
• Composite: 24.56/100
• National rank: #7640
• State rank: #73 of 129 in AL

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Dothan

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #146
• US rank: #13662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dothan, AL
• County: Houston · 110,280 people
• City population: 47,783
• Metro: Dothan, AL
• Population (ZIP): 38,627
• Household income: $49,124
• Rent vs Own: 41.7% rent · 58.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

---

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,280 people
• By 2030: 112,668 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 116,149 · +5.3%
• By 2050: 117,805 · +6.8%
• By 2075: 118,577 · +7.5%
• By 2100: 110,940 · +0.6%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.8) · D 25.7% · R 73.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -40.8pp · 2024: -47.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.8 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+47.6 2012: R+40.3 2008: R+40.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.46%
• Current HPI: 161.1212
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveList price: $279,900
• HOA & community: HOA fee approximately $16.67

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric serviceCentral HVAC (heat pump and central air)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Annabelle 1644)Living area approximately 1,644
• Exterior features: Metal and asphalt roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pumpCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan model Annabelle 1644 (new construction plan)