18 Monroe St · North Tonawanda, NY 14120

$159,716

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,492 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1856 4,800 sqft lot $107/sqft · 20% below area Est $200k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 18 Monroe Street! Offering almost 1,500 sq ft of living space, this home features a spacious and functional open floor plan designed for both everyday living and entertaining. The first-floor bedroom adds flexibility, while the large eat-in kitchen with breakfast bar flows seamlessly into a formal dining room—perfect for hosting. A sliding glass door off the kitchen leads to a huge, fully fenced backyard, ideal for gatherings, pets, or simply enjoying the outdoors. Upstairs, you’ll find additional bedrooms, including a versatile walk-through fourth bedroom—perfect for a home office or hobby space. With abundant storage and a layout full of potential, this home offers comfort, space, and opportunity in a convenient North Tonawanda location - just a couple blocks from the scenic Niagara River.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• First-floor bedroom
• Large eat-in kitchen

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FIRST-FLOOR BEDROOM
• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• WALK-THROUGH FOURTH BEDROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $56 ($667/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (4.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (4.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.0% in North Tonawanda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#30 in NY, #518 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• North Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #398 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 178 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $134k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1856 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $151,914 (4.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1856 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.49%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,062
• List price: $159,716
• Delta: -20.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
78 Washington St	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,462 (-2%)	15mo	$210,000	$144	78
119 E Felton St	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,475 (-1%)	3mo	$192,000	$130	78
178 Jackson Ave	0.46mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,485 (-0%)	13mo	$195,000	$131	62
130 16th Ave	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,360 (-9%)	1mo	$250,000	$184	58
175 E Felton St	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,316 (-12%)	0mo	$190,000	$144	55
89 16th Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,688 (+13%)	3mo	$270,000	$160	52
1404 Payne Ave	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,415 (-5%)	14mo	$160,000	$113	48
298 Ward Rd	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,332 (-11%)	4mo	$165,750	$124	48
182 Jackson Ave	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,329 (-11%)	11mo	$279,900	$211	48
1303 Payne Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,308 (-12%)	2mo	$153,000	$117	48
399 Frontier Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,342 (-10%)	6mo	$250,000	$186	40
336 Linwood Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,292 (-13%)	10mo	$200,000	$155	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-17,632
• Equity at exit: $23,814

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $9,716
• Equity at exit: $13,809

Cash invested: $44,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14120

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,519 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$838
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,885/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,449

Max offer price $159,716

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,929
• Closing costs: $4,791
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
60 Fredericka St North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,425	$1.19	14d	1	0.17mi
175 12th Ave North Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	43d	1	0.59mi
50 7th Ave North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	1576	$1,500	$0.95	1d	1	0.74mi
600 River Rd North Tonawanda, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1320	$4,995	$3.78	1d	12	0.98mi
125 3rd Ave North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	43d	1	1.00mi
528 Ward Rd North Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	916	$2,250	$2.46	1d	1	1.05mi
757 Remington Dr Unit 1 North Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,750	$1.59	10d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-04-20
   listed $159,716 Active 831-char remark

   Show marketing remark (831 chars)

   Welcome to 18 Monroe Street! Offering almost 1,500 sq ft of living space, this home features a spacious and functional open floor plan designed for both everyday living and entertaining. The first-floor bedroom adds flexibility, while the large eat-in kitchen with breakfast bar flows seamlessly into a formal dining room—perfect for hosting. A sliding glass door off the kitchen leads to a huge, fully fenced backyard, ideal for gatherings, pets, or simply enjoying the outdoors. Upstairs, you’ll find additional bedrooms, including a versatile walk-through fourth bedroom—perfect for a home office or hobby space. With abundant storage and a layout full of potential, this home offers comfort, space, and opportunity in a convenient North Tonawanda location - just a couple blocks from the scenic Niagara River.

2. 2025-02-25
   soldstatus $134,500
3. 2021-09-01
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show
4. 2021-09-01
   historical
5. 2021-09-01
   listed $87,550 Active
6. 2017-02-17
   soldstatus $84,000 Closed Sale or Rented
7. 2017-02-17
   soldstatus $84,000
8. 2016-12-12
   status Pending Sale
9. 2016-11-22
   listed $89,900 Active
10. 2016-08-16
    soldstatus $25,689 Closed Sale or Rented
11. 2016-06-21
    historical Under Contract- Do Not Show
12. 2016-05-13
    listed $28,350 Active
13. 2016-05-12
    historical
14. 2016-04-12
    price $28,350
15. 2016-02-27
    price $31,500
16. 2015-12-30
    listed $35,000 Active
17. 2005-06-21
    soldstatus $56,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,885 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,885 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 16% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,230
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,947
• − Property taxes: −$2,885
• − Insurance: −$799
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,458
• − Management: −$1,458
• − Depreciation: −$4,646
• Taxable loss: −$1,963
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$471
• After-tax cash flow: $1,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3621240
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,348
• Composite: 42.15/100
• National rank: #3301
• State rank: #398 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Tonawanda

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #518

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Tonawanda, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 44,241
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 44,241
• Household income: $74,871
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1303.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.39%
• Current HPI: 303.1744
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.96%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+183.2% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $159,716 WNYREIS
• 2025-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $134,500 Public Records
• 2021-09-01 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-09-01 Listed $87,550 WNYREIS
• 2021-09-01 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2017-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records
• 2017-02-17 Sold (MLS) $84,000 WNYREIS
• 2016-12-12 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2016-11-22 Listed $89,900 WNYREIS
• 2016-08-16 Sold (MLS) $25,689 WNYREIS
• 2016-06-21 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2016-05-13 Listed $28,350 WNYREIS
• 2016-05-12 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2016-04-12 Price Changed $28,350 WNYREIS
• 2016-02-27 Price Changed $31,500 WNYREIS
• 2015-12-30 Listed $35,000 WNYREIS
• 2005-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $56,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,885 · +16.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.