1311 Woodman Way · Pine Hills, FL 32818

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,180 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1986 0.28 ac lot Est $309k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BACK YARD IS HUGE & ALL WOOD FENCED FOR PRIVACY. NICE SCREENED PATIO

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1986

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $331 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (0.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.8% in Pine Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#317 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Oaks Elementary (math 30% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,841 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 432 students, 81% FRL); Robinswood Middle (math 25% / reading 29%, grade F, #497 of 571 statewide, top 88%, 1,080 students, 71% FRL); Ocoee High (math 17% / reading 38%, grade F, #470 of 667 statewide, top 71%, 2,536 students, 50% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Orange average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 181 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.10%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $309,160
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1236 Lamplighter Way	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,258 (+7%)	3mo	$330,000	$262	81
1726 Torrey Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,302 (+10%)	13mo	$355,000	$273	60
1859 Yukon Dr	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,197 (+1%)	16mo	$241,000	$201	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-17,181
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-10,542
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32818

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 181
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,987 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,287/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,568

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $444	-5% $388	+0% $331	+5% $275	+10% $218
Rent	-10% $174	-5% $253	+0% $331	+5% $410	+10% $488
Rate	-1.0pp $432	-0.5pp $382	base $331	+0.5pp $279	+1.0pp $227

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1300 Woodman Way Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1240	$2,300	$1.85	25d	1	0.07mi
1275 Woodman Way Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	891	$1,450	$1.63	9d	1	0.10mi
1109 Woodman Way Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,750	$1.56	23d	1	0.11mi
7376 Balboa Dr #7376 Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	971	$1,500	$1.54	25d	1	0.41mi
7364 Balboa Dr #7364 Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	971	$1,500	$1.54	25d	1	0.43mi
7320 Balboa Dr #7320 Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	25d	1	0.48mi
8008 Balasands Blvd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1140	$2,290	$2.01	0d	16	0.63mi
7097 Balboa Dr #7097 Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	1042	$1,500	$1.44	25d	1	0.88mi
371 Snowshoe Ct Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1417	$2,540	$1.79	15d	1	0.94mi
2015 Erving Cir #102 Ocoee, FL	2.0	2.0	1031	$1,750	$1.70	0d	1	0.97mi
2000 Erving Cir Ocoee, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1161	$1,950	$1.68	25d	2	0.98mi
2000 Erving Cir #208 Ocoee, FL	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,950	$1.51	9d	1	0.98mi
1995 Erving Cir #307 Ocoee, FL	2.0	2.0	1109	$1,800	$1.62	13d	1	1.00mi
2025 Erving Cir Ocoee, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	976	$1,650	$1.69	0d	2	1.00mi
2025 Erving Cir #207 Ocoee, FL	2.0	2.0	1031	$1,800	$1.75	23d	1	1.01mi
247 Grove St Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1113	$2,250	$2.02	3d	1	1.11mi
247 Grove St Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1113	$2,250	$2.02	25d	1	1.11mi
1101 Vintage Village Ln Ocoee, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,725	$1.57	5d	2	1.12mi
1101 Vintage Village Ln #110 Ocoee, FL	2.0	2.0	1127	$1,800	$1.60	25d	1	1.12mi
1024 Vizcaya Lake Rd Ocoee, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	776	$1,820	$2.35	0d	27	1.20mi
219 Ashbourne Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,205	$2.04	9d	1	1.22mi
7222 Nima Ct Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1449	$2,400	$1.66	16d	1	1.24mi
204 Hawthorne Groves Blvd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1126	$2,001	$1.78	0d	29	1.25mi
106 Cranfield Ct Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1263	$2,500	$1.98	23d	1	1.29mi
245 Alston Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1385	$2,300	$1.66	6d	1	1.33mi
9304 Daney St Gotha, FL	3.0	2.0	1147	$2,025	$1.77	6d	1	1.44mi
9426 Lake Lotta Cir Gotha, FL	2.0	2.5	1112	$1,975	$1.78	19d	1	1.45mi
8019 Lesia Cir Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,700	$1.80	5d	1	1.47mi
2603 Silkwood Cir Orlando, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1114	$1,898	$1.70	0d	16	1.48mi
7350 Oak Meadows Cir Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1012	$2,350	$2.32	25d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-06
   price $199,900
3. 2026-02-16
   status Active
4. 2026-02-04
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-09
   listed $205,900 Active
6. 2023-02-02
   historical
7. 2023-01-12
   status Active
8. 2023-01-03
   status Pending
9. 2022-12-29
   listed $245,000 Active
10. 2004-11-22
    soldstatus $134,900
11. 2004-11-12
    soldstatus $134,900 74-char remark

    Show marketing remark (74 chars)

    BACK YARD IS HUGE & ALL WOOD FENCED FOR PRIVACY. NICE SCREENED PATIO

12. 2004-08-11
    listed $134,900 74-char remark

    Show marketing remark (74 chars)

    BACK YARD IS HUGE & ALL WOOD FENCED FOR PRIVACY. NICE SCREENED PATIO

13. 2000-07-25
    soldstatus $89,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,287 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,659 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$373/yr (+$31/mo · 29.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,848
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,287
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,908
• − Management: −$1,908
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $733
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$176
• After-tax cash flow: $3,798/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pine Hills

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #317
• US rank: #5362

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• City population: 60,203
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 59,114
• Household income: $63,061
• Rent vs Own: 41.6% rent · 58.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2059.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 69% Hispanic / Latino 14% White 10% Two or more races 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 21% Estonian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 40% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 25% Spanish 11% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.40%
• Current HPI: 321.5821
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.66%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+122.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Listed $205,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-12 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-29 Listed $245,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $134,900 Public Records
• 2004-11-12 Sold (MLS) $134,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-11 Listed $134,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $89,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,287 · +11.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.