20250 S 1485 Rd · Umber View Heights, MO 65785

$185,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,987 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1978 1.00 ac lot $93/sqft · 35% below area Est $302k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Story and half home on one acre, partially fenced with panoramic view. Stunning three bedrooms with two and half baths. The master suite comes complete with patio doors to the covered patio, a huge jetted garden tub in the master bath. Second bedroom on main floor with third bedroom and bath on upper level. Main level living area with vaulted ceiling, and ceiling fan with open wood beams. The brick wood burning fireplace in the family room has door leading outside to a covered patio. The covered patio may be used as a attached carport to carry your groceries in or use it to have friends over and enjoy the panoramic view of the open view of the Stockton lake area. Off the third bedroom on the upper level you can sit on the open deck and enjoy the fresh air and spectacular view. In the back yard is a huge double car garage/work shop. Very efficient home with Geothermal Ground heating source. Beautiful Stockton lake is less than two minutes away. You will love this lake home to enjoy peace and quite and that sits on a dead end road.

Key facts

• Open deck
• Panoramic view
• Double car garage

Tags

• PANORAMIC VIEW
• COVERED PATIO
• BRICK WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• OPEN DECK
• DOUBLE CAR GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (30.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (30.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#95 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Stockton R-I (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #77 of 324 in MO (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Cedar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cedar County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,963 (30.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.35%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $302,292
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -38.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15050 E 2020 Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,770 (-11%)	2mo	$259,000	$146	67
20140 S 1485 Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,780 (-10%)	23mo	$249,999	$140	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $94,224
• Equity at exit: $166,663

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.45×
• Total profit: $282,381
• Equity at exit: $359,414

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65785

• Home prices YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,280 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $779/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $-101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,408

Max offer price $167,113

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3	-5% $-49	+0% $-101	+5% $-154	+10% $-206
Rent	-10% $-202	-5% $-152	+0% $-101	+5% $-51	+10% $0
Rate	-1.0pp $-8	-0.5pp $-54	base $-101	+0.5pp $-149	+1.0pp $-198

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $185,000 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $185,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    price $199,000 1047-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1047 chars)

    Story and half home on one acre, partially fenced with panoramic view. Stunning three bedrooms with two and half baths. The master suite comes complete with patio doors to the covered patio, a huge jetted garden tub in the master bath. Second bedroom on main floor with third bedroom and bath on upper level. Main level living area with vaulted ceiling, and ceiling fan with open wood beams. The brick wood burning fireplace in the family room has door leading outside to a covered patio. The covered patio may be used as a attached carport to carry your groceries in or use it to have friends over and enjoy the panoramic view of the open view of the Stockton lake area. Off the third bedroom on the upper level you can sit on the open deck and enjoy the fresh air and spectacular view. In the back yard is a huge double car garage/work shop. Very efficient home with Geothermal Ground heating source. Beautiful Stockton lake is less than two minutes away. You will love this lake home to enjoy peace and quite and that sits on a dead end road.

17. 2026-05-05
    price $224,900 1047-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1047 chars)

    Story and half home on one acre, partially fenced with panoramic view. Stunning three bedrooms with two and half baths. The master suite comes complete with patio doors to the covered patio, a huge jetted garden tub in the master bath. Second bedroom on main floor with third bedroom and bath on upper level. Main level living area with vaulted ceiling, and ceiling fan with open wood beams. The brick wood burning fireplace in the family room has door leading outside to a covered patio. The covered patio may be used as a attached carport to carry your groceries in or use it to have friends over and enjoy the panoramic view of the open view of the Stockton lake area. Off the third bedroom on the upper level you can sit on the open deck and enjoy the fresh air and spectacular view. In the back yard is a huge double car garage/work shop. Very efficient home with Geothermal Ground heating source. Beautiful Stockton lake is less than two minutes away. You will love this lake home to enjoy peace and quite and that sits on a dead end road.

18. 2026-04-14
    price $229,000 1047-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1047 chars)

    Story and half home on one acre, partially fenced with panoramic view. Stunning three bedrooms with two and half baths. The master suite comes complete with patio doors to the covered patio, a huge jetted garden tub in the master bath. Second bedroom on main floor with third bedroom and bath on upper level. Main level living area with vaulted ceiling, and ceiling fan with open wood beams. The brick wood burning fireplace in the family room has door leading outside to a covered patio. The covered patio may be used as a attached carport to carry your groceries in or use it to have friends over and enjoy the panoramic view of the open view of the Stockton lake area. Off the third bedroom on the upper level you can sit on the open deck and enjoy the fresh air and spectacular view. In the back yard is a huge double car garage/work shop. Very efficient home with Geothermal Ground heating source. Beautiful Stockton lake is less than two minutes away. You will love this lake home to enjoy peace and quite and that sits on a dead end road.

19. 2026-03-24
    listed $235,000 Active 1047-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1047 chars)

    Story and half home on one acre, partially fenced with panoramic view. Stunning three bedrooms with two and half baths. The master suite comes complete with patio doors to the covered patio, a huge jetted garden tub in the master bath. Second bedroom on main floor with third bedroom and bath on upper level. Main level living area with vaulted ceiling, and ceiling fan with open wood beams. The brick wood burning fireplace in the family room has door leading outside to a covered patio. The covered patio may be used as a attached carport to carry your groceries in or use it to have friends over and enjoy the panoramic view of the open view of the Stockton lake area. Off the third bedroom on the upper level you can sit on the open deck and enjoy the fresh air and spectacular view. In the back yard is a huge double car garage/work shop. Very efficient home with Geothermal Ground heating source. Beautiful Stockton lake is less than two minutes away. You will love this lake home to enjoy peace and quite and that sits on a dead end road.

20. 2024-04-19
    soldstatus Closed 692-char remark

    Show marketing remark (692 chars)

    Looking for something close to the lake that you can call home? Then check this house out! Only a 1/2 mile Stockton Lake, this house could make a great lakeside retreat with some TLC. Home will need a lot of updating and repairs in the interior. Sitting on one acre, you don't have to worry about being packed into a tight neighborhood. And the beautiful trees on the property offer some relaxing shade in the summer heat! The living room features high cathedral ceilings and a cozy wood burning fireplace. The deck off of the upstairs bedroom offers great views of the area. And don't forget about the detached garage. Home will need a lot of updating and repairs to the interior and garage.

21. 2024-04-19
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (692 chars)

    Looking for something close to the lake that you can call home? Then check this house out! Only a 1/2 mile Stockton Lake, this house could make a great lakeside retreat with some TLC. Home will need a lot of updating and repairs in the interior. Sitting on one acre, you don't have to worry about being packed into a tight neighborhood. And the beautiful trees on the property offer some relaxing shade in the summer heat! The living room features high cathedral ceilings and a cozy wood burning fireplace. The deck off of the upstairs bedroom offers great views of the area. And don't forget about the detached garage. Home will need a lot of updating and repairs to the interior and garage.

22. 2024-03-04
    status Pending 692-char remark

    Show marketing remark (692 chars)

    Looking for something close to the lake that you can call home? Then check this house out! Only a 1/2 mile Stockton Lake, this house could make a great lakeside retreat with some TLC. Home will need a lot of updating and repairs in the interior. Sitting on one acre, you don't have to worry about being packed into a tight neighborhood. And the beautiful trees on the property offer some relaxing shade in the summer heat! The living room features high cathedral ceilings and a cozy wood burning fireplace. The deck off of the upstairs bedroom offers great views of the area. And don't forget about the detached garage. Home will need a lot of updating and repairs to the interior and garage.

23. 2024-02-23
    listed $139,900 Active 692-char remark

    Show marketing remark (692 chars)

    Looking for something close to the lake that you can call home? Then check this house out! Only a 1/2 mile Stockton Lake, this house could make a great lakeside retreat with some TLC. Home will need a lot of updating and repairs in the interior. Sitting on one acre, you don't have to worry about being packed into a tight neighborhood. And the beautiful trees on the property offer some relaxing shade in the summer heat! The living room features high cathedral ceilings and a cozy wood burning fireplace. The deck off of the upstairs bedroom offers great views of the area. And don't forget about the detached garage. Home will need a lot of updating and repairs to the interior and garage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $779 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,794 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,015/yr (+$85/mo · 130.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,356
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$779
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,228
• − Management: −$1,228
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$4,550
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,092
• After-tax cash flow: $-123/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockton R-I
• NCES district ID: 2929520
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $35,609
• Composite: 39.32/100
• National rank: #3989
• State rank: #77 of 324 in MO

Livability — Umber View Heights

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #6413

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,538

Population outlook (Cedar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,424 people
• By 2030: 13,080 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 12,434 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 11,841 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 10,171 · -24.2%
• By 2100: 7,744 · -42.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cedar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.6) · D 14.8% · R 84.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -69.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.6 2020: R+65.9 2016: R+63.9 2012: R+47.0 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.72%
• Current HPI: 293.8984
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+42.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $199,000 SOMO
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $224,900 SOMO
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $229,000 SOMO
• 2026-03-24 Listed $235,000 SOMO
• 2024-04-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-04-19 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2024-03-04 Pending — SOMO
• 2024-02-23 Listed $139,900 SOMO

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $779 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.