116 Antler Ln · Hemlock Farms, PA 18337

$33,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · Land · 211 Days on market

Built 1986 4,792 sqft lot $82/sqft · at area comps Est $34k · at est. $227/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1476 ANTLER LANE (911 116 ANTLER LN) 2 bedroom park model with major upgrades including new flooring, wall framing, sheetrock, several windows, ceramic title shower, jumbo water electric hot water heater, range, refrigerator, AC and new propane area heater. The property also has a rubber roof, deck, canopyand shed, The site is partially graveled too.

Key facts

• Shed
• New flooring
• Canopy

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• CERAMIC TILE SHOWER
• RUBBER ROOF
• DECK
• CANOPY
• SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $33k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $825 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $33k).
• Recommended offer: $29k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 36.3% vs local median 7.1% in Hemlock Farms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#884 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 290 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $228 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $990 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $29,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 107.14%
• DSCR: 5.77
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $34,457
• List price: $33,000
• Delta: -4.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.13×
• Total profit: $47,358
• Equity at exit: $4,920

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.86×
• Total profit: $109,560
• Equity at exit: $2,853

Cash invested: $9,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18337

• Home prices YoY: -22.0%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,620 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$173
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$41 /mo · $495/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$227
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $825

Break-even live

Break-even rent $576

Max offer price $33,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $848	-5% $836	+0% $825	+5% $814	+10% $802
Rent	-10% $697	-5% $761	+0% $825	+5% $889	+10% $953
Rate	-1.0pp $842	-0.5pp $833	base $825	+0.5pp $816	+1.0pp $808

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,250
• Closing costs: $990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $227 · $2,724/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $33,000 Active 211 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $33,000 Active 210 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $33,000 Active 209 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $33,000 Active 208 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $33,000 Active 206 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $33,000 Active 205 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $33,000 Active 202 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $33,000 Active 201 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $33,000 Active 200 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $37,500 Active 197 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $37,500 Active 196 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $37,500 Active 195 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $37,500 Active 194 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $37,500 Active 193 DOM
15. 2025-11-19
    listed $37,500 Active 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    1476 ANTLER LANE (911 116 ANTLER LN) 2 bedroom park model with major upgrades including new flooring, wall framing, sheetrock, several windows, ceramic title shower, jumbo water electric hot water heater, range, refrigerator, AC and new propane area heater. The property also has a rubber roof, deck, canopyand shed, The site is partially graveled too.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,443
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,849
• − Property taxes: −$495
• − Insurance: −$165
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,555
• − Management: −$1,555
• − HOA: −$2,724
• − Depreciation: −$960
• Taxable income: $10,140
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,434
• After-tax cash flow: $7,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hemlock Farms

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #884
• US rank: #9421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pike County · 15,799 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,799
• Household income: $93,149
• Rent vs Own: 14.2% rent · 85.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 275.0

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.81%
• Current HPI: 194.0604
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-19 Listed $37,500 PWMLS