1115 Blue Jay Ln · Mount Pocono, PA 18466

$249,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,220 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1963 0.27 ac lot Est $261k · at est. $146/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Pocono Farms Country Club! This bi-level home offers 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths with hardwood and tile flooring throughout. Enjoy relaxing in the screened-in porch overlooking the peaceful surroundings, while the full walkout basement with a cozy wood stove provides additional living or entertaining space. Additional features include a one-car garage and plenty of potential for a primary home, vacation getaway, or investment property. Conveniently located close to all the amenities Pocono Farms has to offer, including golf, lake, pool, fitness center, and more. Priced to sell -- don't miss this opportunity in the heart of the Poconos!

Key facts

• Cozy wood stove
• Screened-in porch
• One-car garage

Tags

• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• FULL WALKOUT BASEMENT
• COZY WOOD STOVE
• ONE-CAR GARAGE
• CLOSE TO AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property type: Residential, Single Family Residence
• HOA & community: Part of Pocono Farms Country Club homeowners association; Annual HOA fee of $1,750 (about $145.83/month); HOA amenities: security, clubhouse, playground, recreation room, golf course, fitness center, tennis courts, basketball court, pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 garage space); Driveway; Unpaved open parking (4 open spaces); Garage faces front
• Security: Community security (HOA)
• Utilities: Private water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family house; No common walls
• Construction: Shake siding; Asphalt roof; Basement present
• Exterior features: Private yard; Front porch; Rear screened porch; Sliding doors

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Water heater
• Bedrooms: Total of 7 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Open floor plan; Ceiling fans; Basement with sump pump; Fireplace in basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in lower level / basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-533/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (8.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#362 in PA, #3,166 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, commute F.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 358 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $249k implies a 374% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $227,215 (8.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.76%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $261,080
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
129 Echo Lake Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,276 (+5%)	13mo	$252,500	$198	63
107 Black Bear Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,194 (-2%)	9mo	$255,000	$214	62
112 Pin Oak Ln	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (-15%)	1mo	$205,000	$197	61
754 Route 196	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,280 (+5%)	22mo	$140,000	$109	55
803 Grouse Pt	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,268 (+4%)	20mo	$320,000	$252	55
109 Wood Duck Pl	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,104 (-10%)	1mo	$260,000	$236	52
5111 Iroquois St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-2%)	19mo	$196,947	$164	51
1026 Seven Nations Dr	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,300 (+7%)	7mo	$260,000	$200	49
206 Adams Pl	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,400 (+15%)	7mo	$465,000	$332	49
214 Pheasant Pl	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+10%)	8mo	$360,000	$268	43
107 Douglas Fir Ln	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,374 (+13%)	16mo	$320,000	$233	38
205 Larch Oval	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,386 (+14%)	22mo	$266,000	$192	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.36% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $18,900
• Equity at exit: $103,053

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $82,127
• Equity at exit: $152,211

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18466

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 358
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,272 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$284 /mo · $3,407/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$146
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $-44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,328

Max offer price $241,151

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $97	-5% $26	+0% $-44	+5% $-115	+10% $-185
Rent	-10% $-224	-5% $-134	+0% $-44	+5% $45	+10% $135
Rate	-1.0pp $81	-0.5pp $19	base $-44	+0.5pp $-109	+1.0pp $-175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $146 · $1,752/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   listed $249,000 Active
3. 1979-07-03
   soldstatus $52,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,407 · $284/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,670 · $306/mo
• Expected delta: +$264/yr (+$22/mo · 7.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,266
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,407
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,181
• − Management: −$2,181
• − HOA: −$1,752
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$4,692
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,126
• After-tax cash flow: $593/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocono Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4219500
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,317
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3856
• State rank: #245 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mount Pocono

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #362
• US rank: #3166

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,997

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 24% Two or more races 17% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 12% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 1% German 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.36%
• Current HPI: 202.4134
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+374.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — PMAR
• 2026-04-28 Listed $249,000 PMAR
• 1979-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $52,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,407 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.